Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. (DKS)
$135.41
+0.94 (+0.70%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 8,436.57 | 8,750.74 | 9,584.02 | 12,293.37 | 12,368.20 | 13,670.71 | 15,110.38 | 16,701.67 | 18,460.55 | 20,404.65 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 686 | 695.16 | 1,086.56 | 2,374.83 | 1,844.44 | 1,685.41 | 1,862.91 | 2,059.09 | 2,275.94 | 2,515.62 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 442.17 | 424.72 | 760.55 | 2,052.28 | 1,478.97 | 1,276.36 | 1,410.77 | 1,559.34 | 1,723.56 | 1,905.07 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 243.83 | 270.45 | 326.01 | 322.55 | 365.48 | 409.06 | 452.14 | 499.75 | 552.38 | 610.55 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Total Cash | 113.65 | 69.33 | 1,658.07 | 2,643.21 | 1,924.39 | 1,544.79 | 1,707.47 | 1,887.29 | 2,086.04 | 2,305.73 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 44.11 | 58.94 | 59.55 | 70.24 | 79.47 | 82.89 | 91.61 | 101.26 | 111.93 | 123.71 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 1,824.70 | 2,202.27 | 1,953.57 | 2,297.61 | 2,830.92 | 2,973.58 | 3,286.73 | 3,632.86 | 4,015.44 | 4,438.31 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 889.91 | 1,001.59 | 1,258.09 | 1,281.32 | 1,206.07 | 1,511.85 | 1,671.06 | 1,847.04 | 2,041.56 | 2,256.56 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -198.22 | -217.46 | -224.03 | -308.26 | -364.07 | -345.14 | -381.48 | -421.66 | -466.06 | -515.15 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 135.41 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.466 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 99.27 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 24.62 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.70% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 10.701 |
Total Debt | 4,205.14 |
Total Equity | 13,442.69 |
Total Capital | 17,647.83 |
Debt Weighting | 23.83 |
Equity Weighting | 76.17 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 8,436.57 | 8,750.74 | 9,584.02 | 12,293.37 | 12,368.20 | 13,670.71 | 15,110.38 | 16,701.67 | 18,460.55 | 20,404.65 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 686 | 695.16 | 1,086.56 | 2,374.83 | 1,844.44 | 1,685.41 | 1,862.91 | 2,059.09 | 2,275.94 | 2,515.62 |
EBIT | 442.17 | 424.72 | 760.55 | 2,052.28 | 1,478.97 | 1,276.36 | 1,410.77 | 1,559.34 | 1,723.56 | 1,905.07 |
Tax Rate | 25.94% | 27.04% | 25.50% | 23.79% | 24.62% | 25.38% | 25.38% | 25.38% | 25.38% | 25.38% |
EBIAT | 327.45 | 309.87 | 566.62 | 1,563.95 | 1,114.92 | 952.44 | 1,052.74 | 1,163.61 | 1,286.15 | 1,421.59 |
Depreciation | 243.83 | 270.45 | 326.01 | 322.55 | 365.48 | 409.06 | 452.14 | 499.75 | 552.38 | 610.55 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -14.83 | -0.61 | -10.70 | -9.23 | -3.41 | -8.73 | -9.65 | -10.66 | -11.79 |
Inventories | - | -377.58 | 248.71 | -344.04 | -533.31 | -142.66 | -313.15 | -346.13 | -382.58 | -422.87 |
Accounts Payable | - | 111.68 | 256.50 | 23.23 | -75.26 | 305.78 | 159.21 | 175.98 | 194.51 | 215 |
Capital Expenditure | -198.22 | -217.46 | -224.03 | -308.26 | -364.07 | -345.14 | -381.48 | -421.66 | -466.06 | -515.15 |
UFCF | 373.06 | 82.13 | 1,173.20 | 1,246.73 | 498.52 | 1,176.07 | 960.73 | 1,061.90 | 1,173.73 | 1,297.34 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 1,083.34 | 815.19 | 829.99 | 845.06 | 860.41 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 4,433.99 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 8.56 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 1,323.29 |
Terminal Value | 20,172.04 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 13,378.29 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 17,812.29 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 2,280.75 |
Equity Value | 15,531.54 |
Shares Outstanding | 99.27 |
Equity Value Per Share | 156.45 |