Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
DLH Holdings Corp. (DLHC)
$17.02
-0.74 (-4.17%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 115.66 | 133.24 | 160.39 | 209.18 | 246.09 | 297.55 | 359.77 | 435 | 525.96 | 635.94 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 8.01 | 10.71 | 12.96 | 19.86 | 24.55 | 25.30 | 30.59 | 36.99 | 44.72 | 54.07 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 6.29 | 8.47 | 9.01 | 12.86 | 16.43 | 17.99 | 21.75 | 26.30 | 31.80 | 38.45 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 1.72 | 2.24 | 3.96 | 7 | 8.11 | 7.31 | 8.84 | 10.69 | 12.92 | 15.63 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 4.93 | 6.36 | 1.79 | 1.36 | 24.05 | 12.24 | 14.80 | 17.90 | 21.64 | 26.16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 12.27 | 10.64 | 23.53 | 33.90 | 34.44 | 37.77 | 45.67 | 55.21 | 66.76 | 80.72 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 5.21 | 3.39 | 10.05 | 14.64 | 16.68 | 16.12 | 19.50 | 23.57 | 28.50 | 34.46 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -1.06 | -0.65 | -0.41 | -0.15 | -0.10 | -1.06 | -1.28 | -1.55 | -1.87 | -2.26 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 17.02 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.331 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 13.60 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 24.51 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.40% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.081 |
| Total Debt | 66.27 |
| Total Equity | 231.42 |
| Total Capital | 297.69 |
| Debt Weighting | 22.26 |
| Equity Weighting | 77.74 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 115.66 | 133.24 | 160.39 | 209.18 | 246.09 | 297.55 | 359.77 | 435 | 525.96 | 635.94 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 8.01 | 10.71 | 12.96 | 19.86 | 24.55 | 25.30 | 30.59 | 36.99 | 44.72 | 54.07 |
| EBIT | 6.29 | 8.47 | 9.01 | 12.86 | 16.43 | 17.99 | 21.75 | 26.30 | 31.80 | 38.45 |
| Tax Rate | 39.13% | 76.05% | 28.97% | 29.00% | 24.51% | 39.53% | 39.53% | 39.53% | 39.53% | 39.53% |
| EBIAT | 3.83 | 2.03 | 6.40 | 9.13 | 12.40 | 10.88 | 13.15 | 15.90 | 19.23 | 23.25 |
| Depreciation | 1.72 | 2.24 | 3.96 | 7 | 8.11 | 7.31 | 8.84 | 10.69 | 12.92 | 15.63 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 1.63 | -12.89 | -10.38 | -0.54 | -3.33 | -7.90 | -9.55 | -11.55 | -13.96 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | -1.81 | 6.66 | 4.59 | 2.04 | -0.56 | 3.37 | 4.08 | 4.93 | 5.96 |
| Capital Expenditure | -1.06 | -0.65 | -0.41 | -0.15 | -0.10 | -1.06 | -1.28 | -1.55 | -1.87 | -2.26 |
| UFCF | 4.49 | 3.43 | 3.72 | 10.20 | 21.92 | 13.25 | 16.19 | 19.57 | 23.66 | 28.61 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 12.28 | 13.92 | 15.61 | 17.51 | 19.64 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 78.97 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.82 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 29.18 |
| Terminal Value | 501.46 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 344.14 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 423.11 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 42.22 |
| Equity Value | 380.89 |
| Shares Outstanding | 13.60 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 28.01 |