Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Dynagas LNG Partners LP (DLNG)
$2.715
-0.04 (-1.27%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 127.14 | 130.90 | 137.17 | 137.75 | 131.66 | 132.89 | 134.14 | 135.40 | 136.66 | 137.95 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 83.38 | 90.55 | 95.83 | 86.22 | 41.42 | 79.38 | 80.13 | 80.88 | 81.64 | 82.40 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 53.05 | 59.87 | 64.04 | 54.51 | 9.61 | 48.11 | 48.56 | 49.02 | 49.48 | 49.94 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 30.33 | 30.68 | 31.80 | 31.71 | 31.81 | 31.27 | 31.56 | 31.86 | 32.16 | 32.46 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 109.92 | 66.21 | 74.98 | 47.02 | 48.57 | 69.83 | 70.48 | 71.14 | 71.81 | 72.48 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 2.44 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 2.49 | 1.35 | 1.80 | 1.82 | 1.83 | 1.85 | 1.87 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 1.22 | 0.72 | 0.81 | 0.91 | 0.88 | 0.91 | 0.92 | 0.93 | 0.94 | 0.95 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 5.74 | 5.50 | 4.37 | 5.65 | 8.04 | 5.88 | 5.93 | 5.99 | 6.04 | 6.10 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -0.41 | -0.42 | -0.44 | -0.44 | -0.42 | -0.43 | -0.43 | -0.44 | -0.44 | -0.44 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 2.715 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.535 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 36.80 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 0.00 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | -4.98% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 11.819 |
Total Debt | 543.28 |
Total Equity | 99.92 |
Total Capital | 643.20 |
Debt Weighting | 84.47 |
Equity Weighting | 15.53 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 127.14 | 130.90 | 137.17 | 137.75 | 131.66 | 132.89 | 134.14 | 135.40 | 136.66 | 137.95 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 83.38 | 90.55 | 95.83 | 86.22 | 41.42 | 79.38 | 80.13 | 80.88 | 81.64 | 82.40 |
EBIT | 53.05 | 59.87 | 64.04 | 54.51 | 9.61 | 48.11 | 48.56 | 49.02 | 49.48 | 49.94 |
Tax Rate | 0.00% | 1,555.96% | 67.09% | 21.25% | 0.00% | 328.86% | 328.86% | 328.86% | 328.86% | 328.86% |
EBIAT | 53.05 | -871.73 | 21.08 | 42.93 | 9.61 | -110.11 | -111.14 | -112.19 | -113.24 | -114.30 |
Depreciation | 30.33 | 30.68 | 31.80 | 31.71 | 31.81 | 31.27 | 31.56 | 31.86 | 32.16 | 32.46 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 1.09 | 0 | -1.14 | 1.14 | -0.45 | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.02 |
Inventories | - | 0.50 | -0.09 | -0.10 | 0.02 | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 |
Accounts Payable | - | -0.24 | -1.12 | 1.28 | 2.38 | -2.16 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
Capital Expenditure | -0.41 | -0.42 | -0.44 | -0.44 | -3.63 | -0.43 | -0.43 | -0.44 | -0.44 | -0.44 |
UFCF | 82.97 | -840.12 | 51.22 | 74.23 | 44.54 | -81.90 | -79.98 | -80.73 | -81.49 | -82.25 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -83.89 | -83.91 | -86.76 | -89.69 | -92.73 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | -436.99 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | -2.37 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -83.90 |
Terminal Value | 1,919.87 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 2,164.49 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 1,727.50 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 494.72 |
Equity Value | 1,232.78 |
Shares Outstanding | 36.80 |
Equity Value Per Share | 33.50 |