Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Dynagas LNG Partners LP (DLNG)
$2.53
+0.01 (+0.40%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 127.14 | 130.90 | 137.17 | 137.75 | 131.66 | 132.89 | 134.14 | 135.40 | 136.66 | 137.95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 80.83 | 80.93 | 89.99 | 84.97 | 58.73 | 79.02 | 79.76 | 80.51 | 81.26 | 82.03 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 50.50 | 50.25 | 58.20 | 53.26 | 26.93 | 47.75 | 48.20 | 48.65 | 49.11 | 49.57 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 30.33 | 30.68 | 31.80 | 31.71 | 31.81 | 31.27 | 31.56 | 31.86 | 32.16 | 32.46 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 109.92 | 16.21 | 24.98 | 97.01 | 48.57 | 59.63 | 60.19 | 60.76 | 61.33 | 61.90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 1.13 | 0.14 | 0.38 | 2.49 | 1.35 | 1.09 | 1.10 | 1.11 | 1.13 | 1.14 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 1.22 | 0.72 | 0.81 | 0.96 | 0.92 | 0.93 | 0.94 | 0.95 | 0.96 | 0.96 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 5.74 | 5.50 | 4.37 | 5.46 | 5.22 | 5.27 | 5.32 | 5.37 | 5.42 | 5.47 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -0.41 | -0.42 | -0.44 | -0.44 | -0.42 | -0.43 | -0.43 | -0.44 | -0.44 | -0.44 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 2.53 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.546 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 36.80 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 0.00 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | -5.45% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.039 |
| Total Debt | 497.03 |
| Total Equity | 93.11 |
| Total Capital | 590.14 |
| Debt Weighting | 84.22 |
| Equity Weighting | 15.78 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 127.14 | 130.90 | 137.17 | 137.75 | 131.66 | 132.89 | 134.14 | 135.40 | 136.66 | 137.95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 80.83 | 80.93 | 89.99 | 84.97 | 58.73 | 79.02 | 79.76 | 80.51 | 81.26 | 82.03 |
| EBIT | 50.50 | 50.25 | 58.20 | 53.26 | 26.93 | 47.75 | 48.20 | 48.65 | 49.11 | 49.57 |
| Tax Rate | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| EBIAT | 50.50 | 50.25 | 58.20 | 53.26 | 26.93 | 47.75 | 48.20 | 48.65 | 49.11 | 49.57 |
| Depreciation | 30.33 | 30.68 | 31.80 | 31.71 | 31.81 | 31.27 | 31.56 | 31.86 | 32.16 | 32.46 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 0.99 | -0.24 | -2.11 | 1.14 | 0.26 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 |
| Inventories | - | 0.50 | -0.09 | -0.15 | 0.04 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -0.24 | -1.12 | 1.09 | -0.24 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Capital Expenditure | -0.41 | -0.42 | -0.44 | -0.44 | -3.63 | -0.43 | -0.43 | -0.44 | -0.44 | -0.44 |
| UFCF | 80.42 | 81.76 | 88.10 | 83.35 | 59.26 | 78.89 | 79.36 | 80.10 | 80.86 | 81.61 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 81.20 | 84.08 | 87.36 | 90.77 | 94.31 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 437.73 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | -2.85 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 83.25 |
| Terminal Value | -1,716.40 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -1,983.37 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -1,545.65 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 448.46 |
| Equity Value | -1,994.11 |
| Shares Outstanding | 36.80 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -54.18 |