Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Dow Inc. (DOW)

$56.39

+0.39 (+0.70%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 85.81 | 56.39 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 42,95138,54254,96856,90244,62246,216.2047,867.3549,577.5051,348.7453,183.27
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 6,9066,71911,7249,6284,7887,624.847,897.258,179.398,471.618,774.28
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 3,9683,8458,8826,8702,1774,836.545,009.345,188.315,373.675,565.65
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 2,9382,8742,8422,7582,6112,788.292,887.912,991.083,097.953,208.63
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 2,3885,1042,9883,8862,9873,490.403,615.113,744.263,878.034,016.58
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 7,5557,3909,5547,7556,6147,634.527,907.288,189.788,482.378,785.42
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 6,2145,7017,3726,9886,0766,337.916,564.356,798.877,041.777,293.35
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 3,8893,7635,5774,9404,5294,417.814,575.654,739.124,908.435,083.80
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,970-1,387-2,324-2,058-2,477-1,994.79-2,066.05-2,139.87-2,216.32-2,295.50
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 56.39
Beta 1.309
Diluted Shares Outstanding 709
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 10.21
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.08%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.463
Total Debt 16,447
Total Equity 39,980.51
Total Capital 56,427.51
Debt Weighting 29.15
Equity Weighting 70.85
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 42,95138,54254,96856,90244,62246,216.2047,867.3549,577.5051,348.7453,183.27
EBITDA 6,9066,71911,7249,6284,7887,624.847,897.258,179.398,471.618,774.28
EBIT 3,9683,8458,8826,8702,1774,836.545,009.345,188.315,373.675,565.65
Tax Rate -37.69%40.85%22.52%24.76%10.21%12.13%12.13%12.13%12.13%12.13%
EBIAT 5,463.562,274.326,882.055,168.861,954.654,249.864,401.694,558.954,721.824,890.52
Depreciation 2,9382,8742,8422,7582,6112,788.292,887.912,991.083,097.953,208.63
Accounts Receivable -165-2,1641,7991,141-1,020.52-272.76-282.50-292.59-303.05
Inventories -513-1,671384912-261.91-226.43-234.52-242.90-251.58
Accounts Payable --1261,814-637-411-111.19157.83163.47169.31175.36
Capital Expenditure -1,970-1,387-2,324-2,058-2,477-1,994.79-2,066.05-2,139.87-2,216.32-2,295.50
UFCF 6,431.564,313.325,379.057,414.863,730.653,649.744,882.195,056.615,237.275,424.38
WACC
PV UFCF 3,360.724,139.573,947.943,765.183,590.88
SUM PV UFCF 18,804.29

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.60
Free cash flow (t + 1) 5,532.87
Terminal Value 83,831.35
Present Value of Terminal Value 55,495.44

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 74,299.73
Net Debt 13,460
Equity Value 60,839.73
Shares Outstanding 709
Equity Value Per Share 85.81