Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Duke Energy Corporation (DUK)

$109.62

+2.41 (+2.25%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -29.96 | 109.62 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 23,56524,52125,07923,86825,09725,514.4225,938.7826,370.2026,808.7927,254.68
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 10,2879,90411,6478,78911,37010,849.3611,029.8111,213.2611,399.7611,589.37
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 6,2415,2086,4713,3036,354.115,750.055,845.695,942.926,041.766,142.25
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 4,0464,6965,1765,4865,015.895,099.315,184.125,270.355,3585,447.12
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 358442311259343357.90363.85369.90376.05382.31
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 2,7743,1343,0603,1533,6103,283.623,338.243,393.763,450.203,507.59
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 3,2503,0843,2323,1673,1993,330.723,386.113,442.433,499.693,557.89
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 3,0433,4873,4873,1443,6293,504.153,562.443,621.693,681.923,743.16
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -8,052-9,389-11,122-9,907-9,933.03-10,098.24-10,266.20-10,436.95-10,610.54-10,787.01
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 109.62
Beta 0.336
Diluted Shares Outstanding 738
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -3.83
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.34%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 4.474
Total Debt 68,213
Total Equity 80,899.56
Total Capital 149,112.56
Debt Weighting 45.75
Equity Weighting 54.25
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 23,56524,52125,07923,86825,09725,514.4225,938.7826,370.2026,808.7927,254.68
EBITDA 10,2879,90411,6478,78911,37010,849.3611,029.8111,213.2611,399.7611,589.37
EBIT 6,2415,2086,4713,3036,354.115,750.055,845.695,942.926,041.766,142.25
Tax Rate 28.29%13.24%8.52%-64.12%-3.83%-3.58%-3.58%-3.58%-3.58%-3.58%
EBIAT 4,475.204,518.235,919.775,421.016,597.205,955.836,054.896,155.596,257.976,362.06
Depreciation 4,0464,6965,1765,4865,015.895,099.315,184.125,270.355,3585,447.12
Accounts Receivable --36074-93-457326.38-54.61-55.52-56.45-57.38
Inventories -166-14865-32-131.72-55.40-56.32-57.26-58.21
Accounts Payable -444-0-343485-124.8558.2859.2560.2461.24
Capital Expenditure -8,052-9,389-11,122-9,907-9,933.03-10,098.24-10,266.20-10,436.95-10,610.54-10,787.01
UFCF 469.2075.23-100.23629.011,676.061,026.72921.09936.40951.98967.81
WACC
PV UFCF 987.61852.25833.42815.01797
SUM PV UFCF 4,285.29

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 3.96
Free cash flow (t + 1) 987.17
Terminal Value 50,365.77
Present Value of Terminal Value 41,476.69

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 45,761.98
Net Debt 67,870
Equity Value -22,108.02
Shares Outstanding 738
Equity Value Per Share -29.96