Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Duke Energy Corporation (DUK)

$88.26

-0.42 (-0.47%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -92.14 | 88.26 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	24,521	25,079	23,868	25,097	28,768	30,006.70	31,298.73	32,646.40	34,052.09	35,518.31
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	9,732	10,845	8,680	11,377	12,015	12,386.51	12,919.85	13,476.15	14,056.41	14,661.65
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	5,036	5,669	3,194	5,714	6,172	6,046.11	6,306.45	6,577.99	6,861.23	7,156.66
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	4,696	5,176	5,486	5,663	5,843	6,340.40	6,613.40	6,898.16	7,195.18	7,505
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	442	311	259	343	409	415.06	432.93	451.58	471.02	491.30
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	3,134	3,060	3,153	3,610	4,415	4,076.32	4,251.84	4,434.92	4,625.88	4,825.06
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	3,084	3,232	3,167	3,199	3,584	3,837.13	4,002.35	4,174.68	4,354.44	4,541.93
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	3,487	3,487	3,144	3,629	4,754	4,337.90	4,524.68	4,719.50	4,922.72	5,134.68
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-9,389	-11,122	-9,907	-9,715	-11,367	-12,144.75	-12,667.69	-13,213.13	-13,782.07	-14,375.50
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 88.26
Beta	0.435
Diluted Shares Outstanding	770
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	8.04
After-tax Cost of Debt	2.95%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	6.628
Total Debt	76,043
Total Equity	67,960.20
Total Capital	144,003.20
Debt Weighting	52.81
Equity Weighting	47.19
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	24,521	25,079	23,868	25,097	28,768	30,006.70	31,298.73	32,646.40	34,052.09	35,518.31
EBITDA	9,732	10,845	8,680	11,377	12,015	12,386.51	12,919.85	13,476.15	14,056.41	14,661.65
EBIT	5,036	5,669	3,194	5,714	6,172	6,046.11	6,306.45	6,577.99	6,861.23	7,156.66
Tax Rate	13.24%	8.52%	-28.13%	-3.83%	8.04%	-0.43%	-0.43%	-0.43%	-0.43%	-0.43%
EBIAT	4,369.01	5,186.09	4,092.43	5,932.60	5,675.69	6,072.11	6,333.57	6,606.28	6,890.73	7,187.44
Depreciation	4,696	5,176	5,486	5,663	5,843	6,340.40	6,613.40	6,898.16	7,195.18	7,505
Accounts Receivable	-	74	-93	-457	-805	338.68	-175.52	-183.08	-190.96	-199.18
Inventories	-	-148	65	-32	-385	-253.13	-165.22	-172.33	-179.75	-187.49
Accounts Payable	-	-0	-343	485	1,125	-416.10	186.78	194.82	203.21	211.96
Capital Expenditure	-9,389	-11,122	-9,907	-9,715	-11,367	-12,144.75	-12,667.69	-13,213.13	-13,782.07	-14,375.50
UFCF	-323.99	-833.91	-699.57	1,876.60	86.69	-62.80	125.33	130.72	136.35	142.22
WACC
PV UFCF						-59.99	114.35	113.93	113.51	113.10
SUM PV UFCF										394.90

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	4.69
Free cash flow (t + 1)	145.07
Terminal Value	5,392.84
Present Value of Terminal Value	4,288.36

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	4,683.26
Net Debt	75,634
Equity Value	-70,950.74
Shares Outstanding	770
Equity Value Per Share	-92.14