Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL)
$216.53
+0.19 (+0.09%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 70.76 | 161.70 | 250.77 | 369.49 | 531.11 | 895.83 | 1,511 | 2,548.62 | 4,298.78 | 7,250.80 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | -10.42 | -13.76 | -57.28 | -60.32 | -5.83 | -113.76 | -191.88 | -323.65 | -545.90 | -920.78 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | -11.67 | -16.01 | -60.01 | -65.19 | -12.92 | -126.13 | -212.75 | -358.84 | -605.26 | -1,020.90 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 1.25 | 2.26 | 2.73 | 4.87 | 7.10 | 12.37 | 20.86 | 35.19 | 59.36 | 100.12 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Total Cash | 59.84 | 120.49 | 553.92 | 608.18 | 747.61 | 1,227.89 | 2,071.09 | 3,493.32 | 5,892.22 | 9,938.47 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 10 | 20.45 | 33.16 | 46.73 | 142.91 | 142.55 | 240.44 | 405.56 | 684.06 | 1,153.81 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 0 | 13.58 | 0 | 35.04 | 23.75 | 40.05 | 67.56 | 113.96 | 192.21 | 324.20 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 3.81 | 2.20 | 7.82 | 1.18 | 2.45 | 19.06 | 32.16 | 54.24 | 91.48 | 154.31 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -5.25 | -4.01 | -6.21 | -10.12 | -13.68 | -31.69 | -53.45 | -90.16 | -152.07 | -256.50 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 216.53 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.867 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 46.52 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 9.62 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.52% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 8.411 |
Total Debt | 25.04 |
Total Equity | 10,073.41 |
Total Capital | 10,098.45 |
Debt Weighting | 0.25 |
Equity Weighting | 99.75 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 70.76 | 161.70 | 250.77 | 369.49 | 531.11 | 895.83 | 1,511 | 2,548.62 | 4,298.78 | 7,250.80 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | -10.42 | -13.76 | -57.28 | -60.32 | -5.83 | -113.76 | -191.88 | -323.65 | -545.90 | -920.78 |
EBIT | -11.67 | -16.01 | -60.01 | -65.19 | -12.92 | -126.13 | -212.75 | -358.84 | -605.26 | -1,020.90 |
Tax Rate | -9.06% | -0.43% | -0.30% | -1.60% | 9.62% | -0.35% | -0.35% | -0.35% | -0.35% | -0.35% |
EBIAT | -12.73 | -16.08 | -60.18 | -66.24 | -11.68 | -126.58 | -213.50 | -360.11 | -607.40 | -1,024.51 |
Depreciation | 1.25 | 2.26 | 2.73 | 4.87 | 7.10 | 12.37 | 20.86 | 35.19 | 59.36 | 100.12 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -10.45 | -12.71 | -13.57 | -96.18 | 0.35 | -97.89 | -165.12 | -278.50 | -469.75 |
Inventories | - | -13.58 | 13.58 | -35.04 | 11.29 | -16.31 | -27.51 | -46.39 | -78.25 | -131.99 |
Accounts Payable | - | -1.62 | 5.62 | -6.64 | 1.27 | 16.62 | 13.09 | 22.08 | 37.25 | 62.82 |
Capital Expenditure | -5.25 | -4.01 | -6.21 | -10.12 | -13.68 | -31.69 | -53.45 | -90.16 | -152.07 | -256.50 |
UFCF | -16.72 | -43.48 | -57.17 | -126.74 | -101.88 | -145.23 | -358.39 | -604.50 | -1,019.62 | -1,719.80 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -133.98 | -305 | -474.58 | -738.45 | -1,149.03 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | -2,801.04 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 8.40 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -1,754.20 |
Terminal Value | -27,409.38 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | -18,312.72 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | -21,113.76 |
---|---|
Net Debt | -722.57 |
Equity Value | -20,391.19 |
Shares Outstanding | 46.52 |
Equity Value Per Share | -438.31 |