Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

The Dixie Group, Inc. (DXYN)

$1.53

-0.15 (-8.93%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 29.04 | 1.53 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 412.46405.03374.58315.94341.25326.77312.92299.64286.94274.77
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 16.64-3.0732.457.0314.9412.1211.6011.1110.6410.19
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 3.69-15.7221.01-3.726.462.182.0921.921.83
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 12.9512.6511.4410.758.479.939.519.118.728.35
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 0.020.020.771.921.470.820.780.750.720.69
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 46.4842.5437.1437.7240.2936.2334.6933.2231.8130.46
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 113.66105.2095.5185.4082.7485.1681.5578.0974.7871.61
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 18.5417.7816.0819.0616.7515.7615.0914.4513.8413.25
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -12.72-4.05-4.24-1.76-4.38-4.61-4.42-4.23-4.05-3.88
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 1.53
Beta 2.548
Diluted Shares Outstanding 15.25
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 69.27
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.45%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 14.824
Total Debt 100.28
Total Equity 23.33
Total Capital 123.61
Debt Weighting 81.12
Equity Weighting 18.88
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 412.46405.03374.58315.94341.25326.77312.92299.64286.94274.77
EBITDA 16.64-3.0732.457.0314.9412.1211.6011.1110.6410.19
EBIT 3.69-15.7221.01-3.726.462.182.0921.921.83
Tax Rate -427.03%4.15%-2.07%2.04%69.27%-70.73%-70.73%-70.73%-70.73%-70.73%
EBIAT 19.46-15.0721.44-3.641.993.723.573.423.273.13
Depreciation 12.9512.6511.4410.758.479.939.519.118.728.35
Accounts Receivable -3.945.40-0.58-2.574.061.541.471.411.35
Inventories -8.469.6910.112.66-2.423.613.463.313.17
Accounts Payable --0.76-1.702.97-2.31-0.99-0.67-0.64-0.61-0.59
Capital Expenditure -12.72-4.05-4.24-1.76-4.38-4.61-4.42-4.23-4.05-3.88
UFCF 19.695.1742.0417.853.869.7113.1412.5912.0511.54
WACC
PV UFCF 9.3412.1611.2010.319.50
SUM PV UFCF 52.50

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 3.98
Free cash flow (t + 1) 11.77
Terminal Value 594.59
Present Value of Terminal Value 489.18

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 541.68
Net Debt 98.81
Equity Value 442.87
Shares Outstanding 15.25
Equity Value Per Share 29.04