Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
The Dixie Group, Inc. (DXYN)
$1.53
-0.15 (-8.93%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 412.46 | 405.03 | 374.58 | 315.94 | 341.25 | 326.77 | 312.92 | 299.64 | 286.94 | 274.77 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 16.64 | -3.07 | 32.45 | 7.03 | 14.94 | 12.12 | 11.60 | 11.11 | 10.64 | 10.19 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 3.69 | -15.72 | 21.01 | -3.72 | 6.46 | 2.18 | 2.09 | 2 | 1.92 | 1.83 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 12.95 | 12.65 | 11.44 | 10.75 | 8.47 | 9.93 | 9.51 | 9.11 | 8.72 | 8.35 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.77 | 1.92 | 1.47 | 0.82 | 0.78 | 0.75 | 0.72 | 0.69 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 46.48 | 42.54 | 37.14 | 37.72 | 40.29 | 36.23 | 34.69 | 33.22 | 31.81 | 30.46 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 113.66 | 105.20 | 95.51 | 85.40 | 82.74 | 85.16 | 81.55 | 78.09 | 74.78 | 71.61 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 18.54 | 17.78 | 16.08 | 19.06 | 16.75 | 15.76 | 15.09 | 14.45 | 13.84 | 13.25 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -12.72 | -4.05 | -4.24 | -1.76 | -4.38 | -4.61 | -4.42 | -4.23 | -4.05 | -3.88 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 1.53 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.548 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 15.25 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 69.27 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.45% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 14.824 |
| Total Debt | 100.28 |
| Total Equity | 23.33 |
| Total Capital | 123.61 |
| Debt Weighting | 81.12 |
| Equity Weighting | 18.88 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 412.46 | 405.03 | 374.58 | 315.94 | 341.25 | 326.77 | 312.92 | 299.64 | 286.94 | 274.77 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 16.64 | -3.07 | 32.45 | 7.03 | 14.94 | 12.12 | 11.60 | 11.11 | 10.64 | 10.19 |
| EBIT | 3.69 | -15.72 | 21.01 | -3.72 | 6.46 | 2.18 | 2.09 | 2 | 1.92 | 1.83 |
| Tax Rate | -427.03% | 4.15% | -2.07% | 2.04% | 69.27% | -70.73% | -70.73% | -70.73% | -70.73% | -70.73% |
| EBIAT | 19.46 | -15.07 | 21.44 | -3.64 | 1.99 | 3.72 | 3.57 | 3.42 | 3.27 | 3.13 |
| Depreciation | 12.95 | 12.65 | 11.44 | 10.75 | 8.47 | 9.93 | 9.51 | 9.11 | 8.72 | 8.35 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 3.94 | 5.40 | -0.58 | -2.57 | 4.06 | 1.54 | 1.47 | 1.41 | 1.35 |
| Inventories | - | 8.46 | 9.69 | 10.11 | 2.66 | -2.42 | 3.61 | 3.46 | 3.31 | 3.17 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -0.76 | -1.70 | 2.97 | -2.31 | -0.99 | -0.67 | -0.64 | -0.61 | -0.59 |
| Capital Expenditure | -12.72 | -4.05 | -4.24 | -1.76 | -4.38 | -4.61 | -4.42 | -4.23 | -4.05 | -3.88 |
| UFCF | 19.69 | 5.17 | 42.04 | 17.85 | 3.86 | 9.71 | 13.14 | 12.59 | 12.05 | 11.54 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 9.34 | 12.16 | 11.20 | 10.31 | 9.50 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 52.50 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 3.98 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 11.77 |
| Terminal Value | 594.59 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 489.18 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 541.68 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 98.81 |
| Equity Value | 442.87 |
| Shares Outstanding | 15.25 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 29.04 |