Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

DZS Inc. (DZSI)

$13.47

-0.55 (-3.92%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -12.84 | 13.47 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 247.11282.35306.88300.64350.21382.95418.76457.91500.73547.54
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 3.838.93-0.78-12.40-29.94-6.29-6.88-7.52-8.23-8.99
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 0.026.23-5.89-17.55-35.09-11.92-13.03-14.25-15.58-17.04
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3.822.705.115.145.155.636.156.737.368.05
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 17.4827.7128.7545.2253.4743.3247.3751.8056.6561.94
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 74.4195.99121.67112.6098.92129.79141.92155.19169.70185.57
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 25.3433.8735.4439.5756.8948.4152.9457.8963.3069.22
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 32.7938.6138.4349.2564.2656.8362.1467.9574.3081.25
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1.16-1.18-2.31-2.27-2.10-2.30-2.51-2.75-3-3.28
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 13.47
Beta 1.224
Diluted Shares Outstanding 21.59
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -10.21
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.13%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.542
Total Debt 16.20
Total Equity 290.79
Total Capital 306.99
Debt Weighting 5.28
Equity Weighting 94.72
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 247.11282.35306.88300.64350.21382.95418.76457.91500.73547.54
EBITDA 3.838.93-0.78-12.40-29.94-6.29-6.88-7.52-8.23-8.99
EBIT 0.026.23-5.89-17.55-35.09-11.92-13.03-14.25-15.58-17.04
Tax Rate 219.13%39.32%-39.05%-17.88%-10.21%38.26%38.26%38.26%38.26%38.26%
EBIAT -0.023.78-8.19-20.68-38.67-7.36-8.05-8.80-9.62-10.52
Depreciation 3.822.705.115.145.155.636.156.737.368.05
Accounts Receivable --21.57-25.689.0713.68-30.87-12.14-13.27-14.51-15.87
Inventories --8.52-1.57-4.13-17.328.48-4.53-4.95-5.41-5.92
Accounts Payable -5.82-0.1810.8215.01-7.435.315.816.356.95
Capital Expenditure -1.16-1.18-2.31-2.27-2.10-2.30-2.51-2.75-3-3.28
UFCF 2.63-18.98-32.83-2.05-24.26-33.84-15.75-17.22-18.83-20.59
WACC
PV UFCF -31.28-13.45-13.60-13.74-13.89
SUM PV UFCF -85.95

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.20
Free cash flow (t + 1) -21.01
Terminal Value -338.81
Present Value of Terminal Value -228.46

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -314.42
Net Debt -37.27
Equity Value -277.15
Shares Outstanding 21.59
Equity Value Per Share -12.84