Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
DZS Inc. (DZSI)
$13.47
-0.55 (-3.92%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 247.11 | 282.35 | 306.88 | 300.64 | 350.21 | 382.95 | 418.76 | 457.91 | 500.73 | 547.54 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 3.83 | 8.93 | -0.78 | -12.40 | -29.94 | -6.29 | -6.88 | -7.52 | -8.23 | -8.99 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 0.02 | 6.23 | -5.89 | -17.55 | -35.09 | -11.92 | -13.03 | -14.25 | -15.58 | -17.04 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 3.82 | 2.70 | 5.11 | 5.14 | 5.15 | 5.63 | 6.15 | 6.73 | 7.36 | 8.05 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 17.48 | 27.71 | 28.75 | 45.22 | 53.47 | 43.32 | 47.37 | 51.80 | 56.65 | 61.94 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 74.41 | 95.99 | 121.67 | 112.60 | 98.92 | 129.79 | 141.92 | 155.19 | 169.70 | 185.57 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 25.34 | 33.87 | 35.44 | 39.57 | 56.89 | 48.41 | 52.94 | 57.89 | 63.30 | 69.22 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 32.79 | 38.61 | 38.43 | 49.25 | 64.26 | 56.83 | 62.14 | 67.95 | 74.30 | 81.25 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -1.16 | -1.18 | -2.31 | -2.27 | -2.10 | -2.30 | -2.51 | -2.75 | -3 | -3.28 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 13.47 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.224 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 21.59 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -10.21 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.13% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.542 |
| Total Debt | 16.20 |
| Total Equity | 290.79 |
| Total Capital | 306.99 |
| Debt Weighting | 5.28 |
| Equity Weighting | 94.72 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 247.11 | 282.35 | 306.88 | 300.64 | 350.21 | 382.95 | 418.76 | 457.91 | 500.73 | 547.54 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 3.83 | 8.93 | -0.78 | -12.40 | -29.94 | -6.29 | -6.88 | -7.52 | -8.23 | -8.99 |
| EBIT | 0.02 | 6.23 | -5.89 | -17.55 | -35.09 | -11.92 | -13.03 | -14.25 | -15.58 | -17.04 |
| Tax Rate | 219.13% | 39.32% | -39.05% | -17.88% | -10.21% | 38.26% | 38.26% | 38.26% | 38.26% | 38.26% |
| EBIAT | -0.02 | 3.78 | -8.19 | -20.68 | -38.67 | -7.36 | -8.05 | -8.80 | -9.62 | -10.52 |
| Depreciation | 3.82 | 2.70 | 5.11 | 5.14 | 5.15 | 5.63 | 6.15 | 6.73 | 7.36 | 8.05 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -21.57 | -25.68 | 9.07 | 13.68 | -30.87 | -12.14 | -13.27 | -14.51 | -15.87 |
| Inventories | - | -8.52 | -1.57 | -4.13 | -17.32 | 8.48 | -4.53 | -4.95 | -5.41 | -5.92 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 5.82 | -0.18 | 10.82 | 15.01 | -7.43 | 5.31 | 5.81 | 6.35 | 6.95 |
| Capital Expenditure | -1.16 | -1.18 | -2.31 | -2.27 | -2.10 | -2.30 | -2.51 | -2.75 | -3 | -3.28 |
| UFCF | 2.63 | -18.98 | -32.83 | -2.05 | -24.26 | -33.84 | -15.75 | -17.22 | -18.83 | -20.59 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -31.28 | -13.45 | -13.60 | -13.74 | -13.89 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -85.95 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.20 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -21.01 |
| Terminal Value | -338.81 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -228.46 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -314.42 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -37.27 |
| Equity Value | -277.15 |
| Shares Outstanding | 21.59 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -12.84 |