Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

DZS Inc. (DZSI)

$1.43

-0.04 (-2.72%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -18.11 | 1.43 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 282.35306.88300.64350.21375.69404.26435468.09503.68541.99
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 6.101.72-8.27-15.90-24.80-9.03-9.72-10.46-11.25-12.11
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 3.40-3.39-13.42-20.45-33.23-15.40-16.57-17.83-19.19-20.65
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 2.705.115.144.558.436.376.857.377.948.54
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 34.7133.3954.4253.4738.3253.9658.0762.4867.2472.35
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 95.99121.67112.6098.92170.50149.35160.71172.93186.09200.24
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 33.8735.4439.5756.8978.5159.7164.2569.1474.3980.05
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 38.6138.4349.2564.26121.2275.3581.0887.2493.88101.02
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1.18-2.31-2.27-5.59-4.53-3.82-4.11-4.43-4.76-5.13
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 1.43
Beta 1.621
Diluted Shares Outstanding 28.09
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -5.64
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.16%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.810
Total Debt 50.03
Total Equity 40.16
Total Capital 90.19
Debt Weighting 55.47
Equity Weighting 44.53
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 282.35306.88300.64350.21375.69404.26435468.09503.68541.99
EBITDA 6.101.72-8.27-15.90-24.80-9.03-9.72-10.46-11.25-12.11
EBIT 3.40-3.39-13.42-20.45-33.23-15.40-16.57-17.83-19.19-20.65
Tax Rate 46.69%-37.04%-17.88%-10.21%-5.64%-4.82%-4.82%-4.82%-4.82%-4.82%
EBIAT 1.81-4.65-15.81-22.54-35.11-16.14-17.37-18.69-20.11-21.64
Depreciation 2.705.115.144.558.436.376.857.377.948.54
Accounts Receivable --25.689.0713.68-71.5821.15-11.36-12.22-13.15-14.15
Inventories --1.57-4.13-17.32-21.6218.80-4.54-4.89-5.26-5.66
Accounts Payable --0.1810.8215.0156.97-45.885.736.176.637.14
Capital Expenditure -1.18-2.31-2.27-5.58-4.53-3.82-4.11-4.43-4.76-5.13
UFCF 3.33-29.292.82-12.20-67.44-19.52-24.80-26.69-28.72-30.90
WACC
PV UFCF -18.15-21.43-21.44-21.45-21.45
SUM PV UFCF -103.92

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.57
Free cash flow (t + 1) -31.52
Terminal Value -565.84
Present Value of Terminal Value -392.86

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -496.78
Net Debt 11.71
Equity Value -508.50
Shares Outstanding 28.09
Equity Value Per Share -18.11