Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A.... (EBR)

$8.8

+0.25 (+2.92%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 840.21 | 8.8 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 37,876.0224,975.7527,725.5329,080.5137,616.2438,668.5339,750.2740,862.2642,005.3643,180.43
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,832.8517,756.8611,755.119,134.1216,280.6114,927.9315,345.5315,774.8116,216.1016,669.74
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 81.5516,054.879,947.687,271.2614,199.1512,615.8112,968.7313,331.5213,704.4614,087.84
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1,751.301,701.991,807.431,862.872,081.462,312.122,376.802,443.292,511.642,581.90
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 14,940.9613,005.3516,689.6424,690.8716,528.2621,697.6322,304.6122,928.5723,569.9824,229.34
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 10,320.5913,141.5914,028.1913,522.5416,389.9217,055.4617,532.5818,023.0518,527.2319,045.52
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 944.40890.931,010.65938.331,115.471,229.491,263.891,299.241,335.591,372.95
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 10,443.753,360.553,095.473,904.054,031.535,903.606,068.756,238.526,413.046,592.44
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,300.50-1,261.04-2,020.20-2,396.79-2,692.24-2,410.45-2,477.88-2,547.20-2,618.46-2,691.71
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 8.8
Beta 0.688
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,568.93
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 48.03
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.61%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.073
Total Debt 46,135.46
Total Equity 13,806.59
Total Capital 59,942.06
Debt Weighting 76.97
Equity Weighting 23.03
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 37,876.0224,975.7527,725.5329,080.5137,616.2438,668.5339,750.2740,862.2642,005.3643,180.43
EBITDA 1,832.8517,756.8611,755.119,134.1216,280.6114,927.9315,345.5315,774.8116,216.1016,669.74
EBIT 81.5516,054.879,947.687,271.2614,199.1512,615.8112,968.7313,331.5213,704.4614,087.84
Tax Rate -780.15%10.04%-67.97%8.83%48.03%-156.24%-156.24%-156.24%-156.24%-156.24%
EBIAT 717.7514,442.2616,708.776,629.167,379.1332,327.0333,231.3634,160.9935,116.6236,098.99
Depreciation 1,751.301,701.991,807.431,862.872,081.462,312.122,376.802,443.292,511.642,581.90
Accounts Receivable --2,821-886.61505.66-2,867.38-665.54-477.12-490.46-504.18-518.29
Inventories -53.46-119.7272.32-177.14-114.02-34.39-35.36-36.35-37.36
Accounts Payable --7,083.20-265.08808.58127.481,872.07165.15169.77174.52179.40
Capital Expenditure -1,300.50-1,261.05-2,020.20-2,396.79-2,692.24-2,410.45-2,477.88-2,547.20-2,618.46-2,691.71
UFCF 1,168.555,032.4715,224.597,481.803,851.3033,321.2032,783.9233,701.0334,643.7935,612.94
WACC
PV UFCF 31,913.8030,072.9929,608.5329,151.2428,701.02
SUM PV UFCF 149,447.58

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.41
Free cash flow (t + 1) 36,325.19
Terminal Value 1,507,269.49
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,214,731.88

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,364,179.46
Net Debt 45,942.81
Equity Value 1,318,236.66
Shares Outstanding 1,568.93
Equity Value Per Share 840.21