Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Ecovyst Inc. (ECVT)

$9.29

+0.25 (+2.77%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -0.30 | 9.29 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,472.101,608.151,567.071,107.36611.20508.13422.44351.20291.98242.74
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 294.59386.25413.85-108.11130.7083.3969.3357.6447.9239.84
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 117.45201.02231.76-259.9150.9020.451714.1411.759.77
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 177.14185.23182.09151.8079.8062.9452.3343.5036.1730.07
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 66.1957.8572.28593.98140.9090.8575.5362.7952.2143.40
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 193.46196.77179.63132.6280.8063.0452.4143.5736.2330.12
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 262.39264.75280.94127.4453.8073.7061.2850.9442.3535.21
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 149.33148.37144.37112.3351.9047.9939.8933.1727.5722.92
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -140.48-131.69-127.64-97.10-60-45.19-37.57-31.23-25.96-21.59
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 9.29
Beta 0.845
Diluted Shares Outstanding 136.45
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 87.05
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.53%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.692
Total Debt 911.80
Total Equity 1,267.63
Total Capital 2,179.43
Debt Weighting 41.84
Equity Weighting 58.16
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,472.101,608.151,567.071,107.36611.20508.13422.44351.20291.98242.74
EBITDA 294.59386.25413.85-108.11130.7083.3969.3357.6447.9239.84
EBIT 117.45201.02231.76-259.9150.9020.451714.1411.759.77
Tax Rate 195.00%34.21%34.27%-22.49%87.05%65.61%65.61%65.61%65.61%65.61%
EBIAT -111.58132.25152.34-318.376.597.035.854.864.043.36
Depreciation 177.14185.23182.09151.8079.8062.9452.3343.5036.1730.07
Accounts Receivable --3.3117.1447.0151.8217.7610.638.847.356.11
Inventories --2.36-16.20153.5173.64-19.9012.4310.338.597.14
Accounts Payable --0.96-4-32.03-60.43-3.91-8.09-6.73-5.59-4.65
Capital Expenditure -140.48-131.69-127.64-97.10-60-45.19-37.57-31.23-25.96-21.59
UFCF -74.92179.16203.73-95.1891.4118.7335.5829.5824.5920.44
WACC
PV UFCF 17.8932.4625.7820.4716.26
SUM PV UFCF 112.86

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.69
Free cash flow (t + 1) 20.85
Terminal Value 775.21
Present Value of Terminal Value 616.45

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 729.31
Net Debt 770.90
Equity Value -41.59
Shares Outstanding 136.45
Equity Value Per Share -0.30