Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Empresa Distribuidora y Comercializ... (EDN)

$18.97

-0.48 (-2.47%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -620.86 | 18.97 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 55,953.6589,943.7991,316113,500205,835292,243.86414,926.86589,111.79836,418.971,187,544.90
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 8,378.7010,918.134,2904,107-19,76715,095.1821,432.0830,429.2043,203.2861,339.88
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 5,817.206,129.25-2,537-5,452-38,993-5,444.28-7,729.77-10,974.70-15,581.84-22,123.05
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 2,561.504,788.886,8279,55919,22620,539.4629,161.8541,403.9058,785.1283,462.92
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 4,617.933,199.476,66218,86630,33129,495.2941,877.3159,457.2784,417.23119,855.31
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 7,694.3912,640.7514,54219,30645,69548,477.3368,827.9597,721.70138,744.95196,989.62
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,252.291,854.341,8393,4416,4387,290.3710,350.8514,696.1020,865.4729,624.73
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 6,568.757,446.5825,98166,197155,808106,662.84151,439.55215,013.37305,275.27433,428.82
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -8,269.36-9,370-9,847-14,725-31,726-37,621.65-53,415.10-75,838.58-107,675.36-152,877.12
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 18.97
Beta 1.423
Diluted Shares Outstanding 43.75
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -563.17
After-tax Cost of Debt 575.82%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.002
Total Debt 15,218
Total Equity 829.94
Total Capital 16,047.94
Debt Weighting 94.83
Equity Weighting 5.17
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 55,953.6589,943.7991,316113,500205,835292,243.86414,926.86589,111.79836,418.971,187,544.90
EBITDA 8,378.7010,918.134,2904,107-19,76715,095.1821,432.0830,429.2043,203.2861,339.88
EBIT 5,817.206,129.25-2,537-5,452-38,993-5,444.28-7,729.77-10,974.70-15,581.84-22,123.05
Tax Rate 30.40%46.80%16.76%-273.93%-563.17%-148.63%-148.63%-148.63%-148.63%-148.63%
EBIAT 4,048.543,260.84-2,111.84-20,386.73-258,591.39-13,536.05-19,218.43-27,286.27-38,740.95-55,004.28
Depreciation 2,561.504,788.886,8279,55919,22620,539.4629,161.8541,403.9058,785.1283,462.92
Accounts Receivable --4,946.36-1,901.25-4,764-26,389-2,782.33-20,350.62-28,893.75-41,023.25-58,244.67
Inventories --602.0415.34-1,602-2,997-852.37-3,060.47-4,345.25-6,169.37-8,759.26
Accounts Payable -877.8318,534.4240,21689,611-49,145.1644,776.7163,573.8290,261.90128,153.55
Capital Expenditure -8,269.36-9,370-9,847-14,725-31,726-37,621.65-53,415.10-75,838.58-107,675.36-152,877.12
UFCF -1,659.32-5,990.8511,516.678,297.26-210,866.39-83,398.10-22,106.07-31,386.12-44,561.91-63,268.85
WACC
PV UFCF -12,897.74-528.72-116.09-25.49-5.60
SUM PV UFCF -13,573.65

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 546.61
Free cash flow (t + 1) -64,534.23
Terminal Value -11,849.62
Present Value of Terminal Value -1.05

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -13,574.70
Net Debt 13,588
Equity Value -27,162.70
Shares Outstanding 43.75
Equity Value Per Share -620.86