Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

EDP Renováveis, S.A. (EDPR.LS)

25.51 €

-0.50 (-1.92%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -15.88 | 25.51 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	1,829.72	1,678.14	1,794.89	1,723.91	1,760.53	1,746.64	1,732.85	1,719.17	1,705.60	1,692.14
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	1,159.91	1,248.29	1,522.18	1,542.10	1,621.59	1,411.79	1,400.64	1,389.59	1,378.62	1,367.74
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	627.30	693.06	928.61	925.97	1,044.99	839.74	833.11	826.54	820.01	813.54
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	532.61	555.23	593.57	616.13	576.60	572.05	567.53	563.05	558.61	554.20
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	286.59	468.62	520.80	440.10	1,003.55	541.93	537.65	533.41	529.20	525.02
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	27.22	34.63	33.42	46.20	57.38	39.66	39.34	39.03	38.73	38.42
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	69.87	99.45	60.50	66.78	1,510.64	359.09	356.26	353.44	350.65	347.89
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-1,037.18	-903.73	-1,209.72	-1,547.26	-2,372.09	-1,405.79	-1,394.69	-1,383.68	-1,372.76	-1,361.92
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 25.51
Beta	0.500
Diluted Shares Outstanding	872.31
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	27.38
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.75%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	5.217
Total Debt	4,902.20
Total Equity	22,252.58
Total Capital	27,154.78
Debt Weighting	18.05
Equity Weighting	81.95
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	1,829.72	1,678.14	1,794.89	1,723.91	1,760.53	1,746.64	1,732.85	1,719.17	1,705.60	1,692.14
EBITDA	1,159.91	1,248.29	1,522.18	1,542.10	1,621.59	1,411.79	1,400.64	1,389.59	1,378.62	1,367.74
EBIT	627.30	693.06	928.61	925.97	1,044.99	839.74	833.11	826.54	820.01	813.54
Tax Rate	45.29%	41.49%	33.00%	27.73%	27.38%	34.98%	34.98%	34.98%	34.98%	34.98%
EBIAT	343.21	405.48	622.20	669.16	758.85	546.01	541.70	537.43	533.18	528.97
Depreciation	532.61	555.23	593.57	616.13	576.60	572.05	567.53	563.05	558.61	554.20
Accounts Receivable	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories	-	-7.41	1.22	-12.78	-11.18	17.72	0.31	0.31	0.31	0.31
Accounts Payable	-	29.59	-38.95	6.28	1,443.86	-1,151.55	-2.83	-2.81	-2.79	-2.77
Capital Expenditure	-1,037.18	-903.73	-1,209.72	-1,547.26	-2,372.09	-1,405.79	-1,394.69	-1,383.68	-1,372.76	-1,361.92
UFCF	-161.37	79.15	-31.68	-268.47	396.04	-1,421.55	-287.98	-285.70	-283.45	-281.21
WACC
PV UFCF						-1,354.50	-261.45	-247.16	-233.64	-220.86
SUM PV UFCF										-2,317.61

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	4.95
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-286.84
Terminal Value	-9,723.26
Present Value of Terminal Value	-7,636.59

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-9,954.21
Net Debt	3,898.65
Equity Value	-13,852.86
Shares Outstanding	872.31
Equity Value Per Share	-15.88