Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Eldorado Gold Corporation (EGO)

$10.04

+0.14 (+1.41%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -50.28 | 10.04 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	459.02	617.82	1,026.69	943.47	871.46	1,056.73	1,281.38	1,553.80	1,884.12	2,284.68
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	-342.65	319.09	483.22	274.52	-14.99	108.72	131.83	159.86	193.84	235.05
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	-448.38	163.76	234.43	71.66	-257.38	-148.54	-180.12	-218.41	-264.84	-321.15
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	105.73	155.33	248.79	202.86	242.39	257.26	311.95	378.27	458.69	556.20
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	295.53	184.84	511.19	481.49	314.87	488.75	592.66	718.66	871.44	1,056.70
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	65.24	63.50	53.66	50.75	67.04	90.43	109.66	132.97	161.24	195.52
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	137.89	163.23	176.27	178.16	198.87	243.75	295.57	358.41	434.60	527
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	38.97	67.11	65.06	71.01	74.91	88.36	107.15	129.93	157.55	191.05
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-312.08	-219.94	-206.38	-282.09	-319.99	-402.21	-487.71	-591.40	-717.13	-869.58
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 10.04
Beta	1.375
Diluted Shares Outstanding	181.76
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	3,084.35
After-tax Cost of Debt	-205.62%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.969
Total Debt	511.36
Total Equity	1,824.92
Total Capital	2,336.28
Debt Weighting	21.89
Equity Weighting	78.11
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	459.02	617.82	1,026.69	943.47	871.46	1,056.73	1,281.38	1,553.80	1,884.12	2,284.68
EBITDA	-342.65	319.09	483.22	274.52	-14.99	108.72	131.83	159.86	193.84	235.05
EBIT	-448.38	163.76	234.43	71.66	-257.38	-148.54	-180.12	-218.41	-264.84	-321.15
Tax Rate	22.36%	28.97%	40.77%	190.04%	3,084.35%	673.30%	673.30%	673.30%	673.30%	673.30%
EBIAT	-348.11	116.31	138.86	-64.52	7,681.23	851.58	1,032.62	1,252.15	1,518.35	1,841.14
Depreciation	105.73	155.33	248.79	202.86	242.39	257.26	311.95	378.27	458.69	556.20
Accounts Receivable	-	1.74	9.84	2.91	-16.29	-23.40	-19.23	-23.31	-28.27	-34.28
Inventories	-	-25.35	-13.04	-1.89	-20.71	-44.88	-51.82	-62.84	-76.20	-92.39
Accounts Payable	-	28.14	-2.05	5.95	3.90	13.46	18.79	22.78	27.62	33.49
Capital Expenditure	-312.08	-219.94	-206.38	-282.09	-319.99	-402.21	-487.71	-591.40	-717.13	-869.58
UFCF	-554.45	56.23	176.03	-136.78	7,570.53	651.81	804.60	975.65	1,183.07	1,434.58
WACC
PV UFCF						1,038.25	2,041.44	3,943.03	7,615.96	14,710.20
SUM PV UFCF										29,348.87

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	-37.22
Free cash flow (t + 1)	1,463.27
Terminal Value	-3,730.93
Present Value of Terminal Value	-38,257.01

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-8,908.14
Net Debt	231.62
Equity Value	-9,139.76
Shares Outstanding	181.76
Equity Value Per Share	-50.28