Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

VAALCO Energy, Inc. (EGY)

$4.97

-0.05 (-1.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 57.17 | 4.97 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 77.03120.0296.7777.41227.94348.12531.678121,240.121,893.98
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 27.9061.2133.78-10.9480.7599.86152.51232.92355.73543.30
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 21.0755.2026.45-20.5059.6969.90106.75163.04249380.29
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 6.836.017.329.5621.0629.9645.7669.89106.73163.01
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 19.6733.3645.9247.8548.67128.08195.60298.74456.25696.80
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 7.0514.2518.577.9232.7945.1468.93105.28160.79245.57
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 3.260.781.073.911.598.1812.4919.0729.1344.48
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 11.588.0815.9016.6918.8047.3572.32110.44168.68257.61
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1.81-14.13-10.35-24.33-39.06-51.09-78.03-119.17-182.01-277.97
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 4.97
Beta 1.577
Diluted Shares Outstanding 58.76
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -36.90
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.10%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.268
Total Debt 10.23
Total Equity 292.01
Total Capital 302.24
Debt Weighting 3.38
Equity Weighting 96.62
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 77.03120.0296.7777.41227.94348.12531.678121,240.121,893.98
EBITDA 27.9061.2133.78-10.9480.7599.86152.51232.92355.73543.30
EBIT 21.0755.2026.45-20.5059.6969.90106.75163.04249380.29
Tax Rate 53.26%-77.08%87.82%-136.16%-36.90%-21.81%-21.81%-21.81%-21.81%-21.81%
EBIAT 9.8597.753.22-48.4181.7285.14130.04198.60303.31463.23
Depreciation 6.836.017.329.5621.0629.9645.7669.89106.73163.01
Accounts Receivable --7.20-4.3110.65-24.87-12.35-23.80-36.35-55.51-84.78
Inventories -2.48-0.29-2.832.31-6.58-4.31-6.58-10.05-15.36
Accounts Payable --3.507.810.792.1128.5524.9738.1358.2388.94
Capital Expenditure -1.81-14.13-10.35-24.33-39.06-51.09-78.03-119.17-182.01-277.97
UFCF 14.8681.413.41-54.5743.2673.6394.62144.51220.70337.07
WACC
PV UFCF 66.9978.31108.81151.18210.06
SUM PV UFCF 615.35

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.92
Free cash flow (t + 1) 343.81
Terminal Value 4,341.07
Present Value of Terminal Value 2,705.29

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 3,320.64
Net Debt -38.45
Equity Value 3,359.09
Shares Outstanding 58.76
Equity Value Per Share 57.17