Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF)

$38.7

-0.33 (-0.85%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 5.94 | 38.7 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 269.89267.43265262.60260.21257.84255.50253.18250.88248.60246.34
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 44.9642.8443.3042.9042.5142.1341.7441.3640.9940.6240.25
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 30.4324.9827.3227.0726.8226.5826.3426.1025.8625.6325.39
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 14.5217.8615.9815.8315.6915.5515.4115.2715.1314.9914.85
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 10.0651.2130.3130.0329.7629.4929.2228.9628.6928.4328.17
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 44.6336.7240.1139.7439.3839.0238.6738.3237.9737.6337.28
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 62.6846.3453.7353.2452.7652.2851.8151.3350.8750.4149.95
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 26.7820.4823.2923.0822.8722.6622.4622.2522.0521.8521.65
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -7.54-8.87-8.10-8.03-7.95-7.88-7.81-7.74-7.67-7.60-7.53
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 38.7
Beta 1.588
Diluted Shares Outstanding 53.65
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 14.40
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.55%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.322
Total Debt 117
Total Equity 2,076.42
Total Capital 2,193.42
Debt Weighting 5.33
Equity Weighting 94.67
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 269.89267.43265262.60260.21257.84255.50253.18250.88248.60246.34
EBITDA 44.9642.8443.3042.9042.5142.1341.7441.3640.9940.6240.25
EBIT 30.4324.9827.3227.0726.8226.5826.3426.1025.8625.6325.39
Tax Rate -48.98%13.54%-12.85%25.70%-68.89%14.40%-12.85%-12.85%-12.85%-12.85%-12.85%
EBIAT 45.3421.6030.8320.1145.3022.7529.7229.4529.1828.9228.66
Depreciation 14.5217.8615.9815.8315.6915.5515.4115.2715.1314.9914.85
Accounts Receivable -7.91-3.380.360.360.360.350.350.350.350.34
Inventories -16.34-7.390.490.480.480.480.470.470.460.46
Accounts Payable --6.292.81-0.21-0.21-0.21-0.21-0.20-0.20-0.20-0.20
Capital Expenditure -7.54-8.87-8.10-9.42-6.47-4.82-7.81-7.74-7.67-7.60-7.53
UFCF 52.3248.5430.7428.5653.6731.0537.9437.6037.2636.9236.58
WACC
PV UFCF 37.7431.6553.6728.0230.9127.6424.7222.1119.77
SUM PV UFCF 138.66

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.80
Free cash flow (t + 1) 37.31
Terminal Value 424.02
Present Value of Terminal Value 253.91

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 392.57
Net Debt 73.65
Equity Value 318.93
Shares Outstanding 53.65
Equity Value Per Share 5.94