Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Elis SA (ELIS.PA)

13.15 €

+0.30 (+2.33%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 19.71 | 13.15 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,214.803,132.103,281.802,806.303,048.303,355.653,693.994,066.454,476.454,927.80
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 599.70904.701,043868.701,010.601,019.121,121.871,234.991,359.511,496.59
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 163.50241.70321.80117.70265253.63279.21307.36338.35372.46
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 436.20663721.20751745.60765.49842.67927.631,021.161,124.12
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 416.40197172.30111.10160265.42292.18321.64354.07389.77
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 127.20120.20125.10137.30138.80153.28168.73185.74204.47225.09
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 273.20269.30282.60208.40262.90306336.86370.82408.21449.37
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -479.80-654.40-682.30-499.20-573.90-670.88-738.52-812.98-894.96-985.19
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 13.15
Beta 1.851
Diluted Shares Outstanding 234.75
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 33.08
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.67%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.624
Total Debt 3,758.80
Total Equity 3,086.93
Total Capital 6,845.73
Debt Weighting 54.91
Equity Weighting 45.09
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,214.803,132.103,281.802,806.303,048.303,355.653,693.994,066.454,476.454,927.80
EBITDA 599.70904.701,043868.701,010.601,019.121,121.871,234.991,359.511,496.59
EBIT 163.50241.70321.80117.70265253.63279.21307.36338.35372.46
Tax Rate 21.75%38.98%23.37%87.38%33.08%40.91%40.91%40.91%40.91%40.91%
EBIAT 127.94147.50246.6014.86177.34149.87164.98181.62199.93220.09
Depreciation 436.20663721.20751745.60765.49842.67927.631,021.161,124.12
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories -7-4.90-12.20-1.50-14.48-15.45-17.01-18.73-20.62
Accounts Payable --3.9013.30-74.2054.5043.1030.8533.9637.3941.16
Capital Expenditure -479.80-654.40-682.30-499.20-573.90-670.88-738.52-812.98-894.96-985.19
UFCF 84.34159.20293.90180.26402.04273.10284.53313.22344.80379.56
WACC
PV UFCF 257.26252.47261.79271.47281.50
SUM PV UFCF 1,324.48

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.16
Free cash flow (t + 1) 387.15
Terminal Value 9,306.55
Present Value of Terminal Value 6,902.14

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 8,226.63
Net Debt 3,598.80
Equity Value 4,627.83
Shares Outstanding 234.75
Equity Value Per Share 19.71