Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Elis SA (ELIS.PA)

21.2 €

+0.34 (+1.63%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 7.63 | 21.2 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 3,133.303,281.802,806.303,048.303,820.804,052.114,297.424,557.594,833.505,126.12
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 949.401,066.30943.401,010.301,180.401,300.291,379.011,462.491,551.031,644.93
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 286.40345.10192.40264.70389.60367.87390.14413.76438.81465.37
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 663721.20751745.60790.80932.42988.871,048.731,112.221,179.56
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 197172.30137.60160226.50223.82237.37251.74266.98283.14
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 758.10701.10578.20674.20887.80903.74958.451,016.481,078.021,143.28
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 120.20125.10137.30138.80195.30179.96190.85202.41214.66227.66
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 269.30282.60208.40250.30326.50335.42355.73377.26400.10424.33
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -654.40-682.30-499.20-573.90-699.80-782.92-830.32-880.59-933.90-990.44
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 21.2
Beta 1.851
Diluted Shares Outstanding 237.38
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 28.24
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.09%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.040
Total Debt 3,949.30
Total Equity 5,032.48
Total Capital 8,981.78
Debt Weighting 43.97
Equity Weighting 56.03
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 3,133.303,281.802,806.303,048.303,820.804,052.114,297.424,557.594,833.505,126.12
EBITDA 949.401,066.30943.401,010.301,180.401,300.291,379.011,462.491,551.031,644.93
EBIT 286.40345.10192.40264.70389.60367.87390.14413.76438.81465.37
Tax Rate 38.98%23.37%87.38%33.08%28.24%42.21%42.21%42.21%42.21%42.21%
EBIAT 174.77264.4624.28177.14279.59212.60225.47239.12253.60268.95
Depreciation 663721.20751745.60790.80932.42988.871,048.731,112.221,179.56
Accounts Receivable -57122.90-96-213.60-15.94-54.71-58.02-61.54-65.26
Inventories --4.90-12.20-1.50-56.5015.34-10.89-11.55-12.25-13
Accounts Payable -13.30-74.2041.9076.208.9220.3121.5422.8424.22
Capital Expenditure -654.40-682.30-499.20-573.90-699.80-782.92-830.32-880.59-933.90-990.44
UFCF 183.37368.76312.58293.24176.69370.42338.72359.23380.97404.04
WACC
PV UFCF 340.90286.88280273.28266.73
SUM PV UFCF 1,447.79

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.66
Free cash flow (t + 1) 412.12
Terminal Value 6,187.95
Present Value of Terminal Value 4,085.06

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 5,532.85
Net Debt 3,722.80
Equity Value 1,810.05
Shares Outstanding 237.38
Equity Value Per Share 7.63