Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Ellomay Capital Ltd. (ELLO)
$17.9
0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 13.64 | 18.12 | 18.99 | 9.64 | 44.78 | 84.28 | 158.61 | 298.49 | 561.75 | 1,057.17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 2.41 | 12.23 | 25.82 | 2.39 | 8.41 | 44.62 | 83.98 | 158.05 | 297.44 | 559.76 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -2.10 | 6.41 | 19.40 | -0.59 | -6.67 | 17.06 | 32.10 | 60.42 | 113.71 | 213.99 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 4.52 | 5.82 | 6.42 | 2.98 | 15.08 | 27.57 | 51.88 | 97.63 | 183.73 | 345.77 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 27.37 | 40.30 | 54.61 | 76.72 | 71.59 | 280.83 | 528.50 | 994.62 | 1,871.81 | 3,522.65 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 10.80 | 12.10 | 4.16 | 8.59 | 7.86 | 46.28 | 87.09 | 163.90 | 308.46 | 580.50 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | 0.28 | 0.31 | 0.64 | 1.71 | 3.22 | 6.07 | 11.42 | 21.49 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 1.35 | 2.13 | 1.76 | 12.39 | 2.90 | 27.95 | 52.61 | 99 | 186.32 | 350.64 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -7.58 | -3.71 | -74.59 | -128.42 | -82.81 | -334.62 | -629.74 | -1,185.14 | -2,230.38 | -4,197.44 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 17.9 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.071 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 12.84 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 32.28 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.02% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.588 |
| Total Debt | 376.32 |
| Total Equity | 229.84 |
| Total Capital | 606.16 |
| Debt Weighting | 62.08 |
| Equity Weighting | 37.92 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 13.64 | 18.12 | 18.99 | 9.64 | 44.78 | 84.28 | 158.61 | 298.49 | 561.75 | 1,057.17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 2.41 | 12.23 | 25.82 | 2.39 | 8.41 | 44.62 | 83.98 | 158.05 | 297.44 | 559.76 |
| EBIT | -2.10 | 6.41 | 19.40 | -0.59 | -6.67 | 17.06 | 32.10 | 60.42 | 113.71 | 213.99 |
| Tax Rate | 2.46% | -29.06% | -26.99% | 26.47% | 32.28% | 1.03% | 1.03% | 1.03% | 1.03% | 1.03% |
| EBIAT | -2.05 | 8.28 | 24.64 | -0.43 | -4.51 | 16.88 | 31.77 | 59.80 | 112.53 | 211.78 |
| Depreciation | 4.52 | 5.82 | 6.42 | 2.98 | 15.08 | 27.57 | 51.88 | 97.63 | 183.73 | 345.77 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -1.30 | 7.94 | -4.43 | 0.74 | -38.42 | -40.81 | -76.81 | -144.55 | -272.04 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | -0.02 | -0.33 | -1.07 | -1.51 | -2.84 | -5.35 | -10.07 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 0.78 | -0.36 | 10.62 | -9.48 | 25.05 | 24.65 | 46.40 | 87.31 | 164.32 |
| Capital Expenditure | -7.58 | -3.71 | -74.59 | -128.42 | -82.81 | -334.62 | -629.74 | -1,185.14 | -2,230.38 | -4,197.44 |
| UFCF | -5.11 | 9.86 | -35.95 | -119.71 | -81.33 | -304.62 | -563.77 | -1,060.98 | -1,996.70 | -3,757.69 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -291.48 | -516.16 | -929.47 | -1,673.72 | -3,013.92 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -6,424.74 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 4.51 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -3,832.84 |
| Terminal Value | -152,702.79 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -122,477.90 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -128,902.64 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 335.09 |
| Equity Value | -129,237.73 |
| Shares Outstanding | 12.84 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -10,065.24 |