Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Electro-Sensors, Inc. (ELSE)

$5.85

-0.01 (-0.17%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 5.50 | 5.85 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 7.847.508.267.628.618.849.099.349.599.86
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 0.770.300.510.190.760.550.570.580.600.62
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 0.46-0.020.19-0.170.460.190.200.210.210.22
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 0.310.320.320.360.300.360.370.380.390.40
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 8.728.808.839.136.719.439.699.9610.2310.52
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 0.950.901.040.9811.081.111.141.171.21
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1.551.621.701.571.661.801.851.901.952.01
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 0.180.120.130.200.350.210.220.220.230.24
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -0.11-0.03-0.26-0.03-0.14-0.12-0.13-0.13-0.13-0.14
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 5.85
Beta 0.355
Diluted Shares Outstanding 3.44
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 10.68
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.47%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 4.569
Total Debt -
Total Equity 20.15
Total Capital 20.15
Debt Weighting 0.00
Equity Weighting 100.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 7.847.508.267.628.618.849.099.349.599.86
EBITDA 0.770.300.510.190.760.550.570.580.600.62
EBIT 0.46-0.020.19-0.170.460.190.200.210.210.22
Tax Rate 35.59%44.44%-0.54%27.91%10.68%23.62%23.62%23.62%23.62%23.62%
EBIAT 0.30-0.010.19-0.120.410.150.150.160.160.17
Depreciation 0.310.320.320.360.300.360.370.380.390.40
Accounts Receivable -0.05-0.140.05-0.02-0.08-0.03-0.03-0.03-0.03
Inventories --0.07-0.080.12-0.09-0.14-0.05-0.05-0.05-0.05
Accounts Payable --0.060.010.070.15-0.140.010.010.010.01
Capital Expenditure -0.11-0.03-0.26-0.03-0.14-0.12-0.13-0.13-0.13-0.14
UFCF 0.490.200.050.460.600.030.320.330.340.35
WACC
PV UFCF 0.030.290.290.280.28
SUM PV UFCF 1.17

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.57
Free cash flow (t + 1) 0.35
Terminal Value 13.81
Present Value of Terminal Value 11.05

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 12.22
Net Debt -6.71
Equity Value 18.93
Shares Outstanding 3.44
Equity Value Per Share 5.50