Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH)
$120.15
+0.13 (+0.11%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 316.16 | 624.33 | 774.43 | 1,382.05 | 2,330.85 | 3,896.18 | 6,512.74 | 10,886.51 | 18,197.56 | 30,418.50 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 15.39 | 121.96 | 201.98 | 248.97 | 523.08 | 708.64 | 1,184.54 | 1,980.05 | 3,309.79 | 5,532.54 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 5.72 | 107.84 | 184.76 | 216.53 | 464.30 | 611.92 | 1,022.87 | 1,709.80 | 2,858.05 | 4,777.42 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 9.67 | 14.12 | 17.23 | 32.44 | 58.77 | 96.72 | 161.67 | 270.25 | 451.74 | 755.12 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 106.24 | 251.41 | 679.38 | 1,016.65 | 1,612.84 | 2,371.64 | 3,964.36 | 6,626.71 | 11,077.01 | 18,516 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 78.94 | 145.41 | 182.17 | 333.63 | 440.90 | 894.85 | 1,495.81 | 2,500.35 | 4,179.51 | 6,986.34 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 16.27 | 32.06 | 41.76 | 74.40 | 149.71 | 214.12 | 357.92 | 598.30 | 1,000.09 | 1,671.72 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 48.79 | 57.47 | 72.61 | 113.77 | 125.08 | 371.02 | 620.18 | 1,036.68 | 1,732.89 | 2,896.64 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -4.15 | -14.79 | -20.56 | -52.51 | -46.44 | -94.51 | -157.97 | -264.06 | -441.40 | -737.83 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 120.15 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.512 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 144.39 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 12.10 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.64% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 11.708 |
Total Debt | 1,290.36 |
Total Equity | 17,348.46 |
Total Capital | 18,638.82 |
Debt Weighting | 6.92 |
Equity Weighting | 93.08 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 316.16 | 624.33 | 774.43 | 1,382.05 | 2,330.85 | 3,896.18 | 6,512.74 | 10,886.51 | 18,197.56 | 30,418.50 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 15.39 | 121.96 | 201.98 | 248.97 | 523.08 | 708.64 | 1,184.54 | 1,980.05 | 3,309.79 | 5,532.54 |
EBIT | 5.72 | 107.84 | 184.76 | 216.53 | 464.30 | 611.92 | 1,022.87 | 1,709.80 | 2,858.05 | 4,777.42 |
Tax Rate | -13.67% | -78.83% | -12.21% | -20.28% | 12.10% | -22.58% | -22.58% | -22.58% | -22.58% | -22.58% |
EBIAT | 6.51 | 192.85 | 207.33 | 260.43 | 408.13 | 750.08 | 1,253.81 | 2,095.83 | 3,503.32 | 5,856.05 |
Depreciation | 9.67 | 14.12 | 17.23 | 32.44 | 58.77 | 96.72 | 161.67 | 270.25 | 451.74 | 755.12 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -66.47 | -36.75 | -151.46 | -107.27 | -453.96 | -600.96 | -1,004.54 | -1,679.16 | -2,806.83 |
Inventories | - | -15.79 | -9.71 | -32.64 | -75.31 | -64.42 | -143.80 | -240.37 | -401.80 | -671.63 |
Accounts Payable | - | 8.68 | 15.14 | 41.16 | 11.32 | 245.93 | 249.17 | 416.50 | 696.20 | 1,163.75 |
Capital Expenditure | -4.15 | -14.79 | -20.56 | -52.51 | -46.44 | -94.51 | -157.97 | -264.06 | -441.40 | -737.83 |
UFCF | 12.02 | 118.60 | 172.67 | 97.42 | 249.20 | 479.85 | 761.92 | 1,273.60 | 2,128.91 | 3,558.63 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 432.53 | 619.06 | 932.76 | 1,405.42 | 2,117.59 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 5,507.36 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 10.94 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 3,629.80 |
Terminal Value | 40,601.79 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 24,160.41 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 29,667.77 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 817.11 |
Equity Value | 28,850.66 |
Shares Outstanding | 144.39 |
Equity Value Per Share | 199.81 |