Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH)
$182.405
+0.55 (+0.30%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 624.33 | 774.43 | 1,382.05 | 2,330.85 | 3,660.63 | 5,749.07 | 9,028.98 | 14,180.13 | 22,270.07 | 34,975.41 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 113.92 | 158.51 | 198.52 | 517.63 | 689 | 1,082.09 | 1,699.43 | 2,668.97 | 4,191.66 | 6,583.05 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 99.81 | 140.41 | 166.08 | 461.49 | 603.39 | 947.63 | 1,488.27 | 2,337.34 | 3,670.82 | 5,765.07 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 14.12 | 18.10 | 32.44 | 56.14 | 85.61 | 134.46 | 211.16 | 331.63 | 520.84 | 817.98 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Total Cash | 251.41 | 679.38 | 1,016.65 | 1,612.84 | 1,778.40 | 3,671.74 | 5,766.51 | 9,056.38 | 14,223.16 | 22,337.64 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 145.41 | 182.17 | 333.63 | 440.90 | 516.11 | 1,195.44 | 1,877.45 | 2,948.56 | 4,630.75 | 7,272.64 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 32.06 | 41.76 | 74.40 | 149.71 | 150.56 | 304.09 | 477.57 | 750.03 | 1,177.93 | 1,849.96 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 57.47 | 72.61 | 113.77 | 125.08 | 106.15 | 403.35 | 633.47 | 994.87 | 1,562.45 | 2,453.85 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -14.79 | -20.56 | -52.51 | -46.44 | -98.97 | -155.44 | -244.12 | -383.40 | -602.13 | -945.65 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 182.405 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.516 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 144.39 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 12.10 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.40% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 10.899 |
Total Debt | 1,292.39 |
Total Equity | 26,337.46 |
Total Capital | 27,629.85 |
Debt Weighting | 4.68 |
Equity Weighting | 95.32 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 624.33 | 774.43 | 1,382.05 | 2,330.85 | 3,660.63 | 5,749.07 | 9,028.98 | 14,180.13 | 22,270.07 | 34,975.41 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 113.92 | 158.51 | 198.52 | 517.63 | 689 | 1,082.09 | 1,699.43 | 2,668.97 | 4,191.66 | 6,583.05 |
EBIT | 99.81 | 140.41 | 166.08 | 461.49 | 603.39 | 947.63 | 1,488.27 | 2,337.34 | 3,670.82 | 5,765.07 |
Tax Rate | -78.83% | -12.21% | -20.28% | 12.10% | -24.81% | -24.81% | -24.81% | -24.81% | -24.81% | -24.81% |
EBIAT | 178.48 | 157.56 | 199.76 | 405.66 | 753.06 | 1,182.69 | 1,857.43 | 2,917.12 | 4,581.38 | 7,195.11 |
Depreciation | 14.12 | 18.10 | 32.44 | 56.14 | 85.61 | 134.46 | 211.16 | 331.63 | 520.84 | 817.98 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -36.75 | -151.46 | -107.27 | -75.21 | -679.33 | -682.01 | -1,071.11 | -1,682.19 | -2,641.90 |
Inventories | - | -9.71 | -32.64 | -75.31 | -0.86 | -153.52 | -173.48 | -272.46 | -427.90 | -672.03 |
Accounts Payable | - | 15.14 | 41.16 | 11.32 | -18.93 | 297.20 | 230.12 | 361.40 | 567.58 | 891.40 |
Capital Expenditure | -14.79 | -20.56 | -52.51 | -46.44 | -98.97 | -155.44 | -244.12 | -383.40 | -602.13 | -945.65 |
UFCF | 177.81 | 123.78 | 36.75 | 244.10 | 644.70 | 626.05 | 1,199.09 | 1,883.19 | 2,957.58 | 4,644.91 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 644.70 | 566.05 | 980.26 | 1,391.97 | 1,976.59 | 2,806.74 | ||||
SUM PV UFCF | 7,721.60 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 10.60 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 4,737.81 |
Terminal Value | 55,090.81 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 33,289.21 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 41,010.82 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 1,006.35 |
Equity Value | 40,004.47 |
Shares Outstanding | 144.39 |
Equity Value Per Share | 277.06 |