Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH)

$120.15

+0.13 (+0.11%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 199.81 | 120.15 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	316.16	624.33	774.43	1,382.05	2,330.85	3,896.18	6,512.74	10,886.51	18,197.56	30,418.50
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	15.39	121.96	201.98	248.97	523.08	708.64	1,184.54	1,980.05	3,309.79	5,532.54
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	5.72	107.84	184.76	216.53	464.30	611.92	1,022.87	1,709.80	2,858.05	4,777.42
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	9.67	14.12	17.23	32.44	58.77	96.72	161.67	270.25	451.74	755.12
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	106.24	251.41	679.38	1,016.65	1,612.84	2,371.64	3,964.36	6,626.71	11,077.01	18,516
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	78.94	145.41	182.17	333.63	440.90	894.85	1,495.81	2,500.35	4,179.51	6,986.34
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	16.27	32.06	41.76	74.40	149.71	214.12	357.92	598.30	1,000.09	1,671.72
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	48.79	57.47	72.61	113.77	125.08	371.02	620.18	1,036.68	1,732.89	2,896.64
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-4.15	-14.79	-20.56	-52.51	-46.44	-94.51	-157.97	-264.06	-441.40	-737.83
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 120.15
Beta	1.512
Diluted Shares Outstanding	144.39
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	12.10
After-tax Cost of Debt	0.64%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	11.708
Total Debt	1,290.36
Total Equity	17,348.46
Total Capital	18,638.82
Debt Weighting	6.92
Equity Weighting	93.08
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	316.16	624.33	774.43	1,382.05	2,330.85	3,896.18	6,512.74	10,886.51	18,197.56	30,418.50
EBITDA	15.39	121.96	201.98	248.97	523.08	708.64	1,184.54	1,980.05	3,309.79	5,532.54
EBIT	5.72	107.84	184.76	216.53	464.30	611.92	1,022.87	1,709.80	2,858.05	4,777.42
Tax Rate	-13.67%	-78.83%	-12.21%	-20.28%	12.10%	-22.58%	-22.58%	-22.58%	-22.58%	-22.58%
EBIAT	6.51	192.85	207.33	260.43	408.13	750.08	1,253.81	2,095.83	3,503.32	5,856.05
Depreciation	9.67	14.12	17.23	32.44	58.77	96.72	161.67	270.25	451.74	755.12
Accounts Receivable	-	-66.47	-36.75	-151.46	-107.27	-453.96	-600.96	-1,004.54	-1,679.16	-2,806.83
Inventories	-	-15.79	-9.71	-32.64	-75.31	-64.42	-143.80	-240.37	-401.80	-671.63
Accounts Payable	-	8.68	15.14	41.16	11.32	245.93	249.17	416.50	696.20	1,163.75
Capital Expenditure	-4.15	-14.79	-20.56	-52.51	-46.44	-94.51	-157.97	-264.06	-441.40	-737.83
UFCF	12.02	118.60	172.67	97.42	249.20	479.85	761.92	1,273.60	2,128.91	3,558.63
WACC
PV UFCF						432.53	619.06	932.76	1,405.42	2,117.59
SUM PV UFCF										5,507.36

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	10.94
Free cash flow (t + 1)	3,629.80
Terminal Value	40,601.79
Present Value of Terminal Value	24,160.41

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	29,667.77
Net Debt	817.11
Equity Value	28,850.66
Shares Outstanding	144.39
Equity Value Per Share	199.81