Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH)

$120.15

+0.13 (+0.11%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 199.81 | 120.15 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 316.16624.33774.431,382.052,330.853,896.186,512.7410,886.5118,197.5630,418.50
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 15.39121.96201.98248.97523.08708.641,184.541,980.053,309.795,532.54
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 5.72107.84184.76216.53464.30611.921,022.871,709.802,858.054,777.42
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 9.6714.1217.2332.4458.7796.72161.67270.25451.74755.12
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 106.24251.41679.381,016.651,612.842,371.643,964.366,626.7111,077.0118,516
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 78.94145.41182.17333.63440.90894.851,495.812,500.354,179.516,986.34
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 16.2732.0641.7674.40149.71214.12357.92598.301,000.091,671.72
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 48.7957.4772.61113.77125.08371.02620.181,036.681,732.892,896.64
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -4.15-14.79-20.56-52.51-46.44-94.51-157.97-264.06-441.40-737.83
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 120.15
Beta 1.512
Diluted Shares Outstanding 144.39
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 12.10
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.64%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.708
Total Debt 1,290.36
Total Equity 17,348.46
Total Capital 18,638.82
Debt Weighting 6.92
Equity Weighting 93.08
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 316.16624.33774.431,382.052,330.853,896.186,512.7410,886.5118,197.5630,418.50
EBITDA 15.39121.96201.98248.97523.08708.641,184.541,980.053,309.795,532.54
EBIT 5.72107.84184.76216.53464.30611.921,022.871,709.802,858.054,777.42
Tax Rate -13.67%-78.83%-12.21%-20.28%12.10%-22.58%-22.58%-22.58%-22.58%-22.58%
EBIAT 6.51192.85207.33260.43408.13750.081,253.812,095.833,503.325,856.05
Depreciation 9.6714.1217.2332.4458.7796.72161.67270.25451.74755.12
Accounts Receivable --66.47-36.75-151.46-107.27-453.96-600.96-1,004.54-1,679.16-2,806.83
Inventories --15.79-9.71-32.64-75.31-64.42-143.80-240.37-401.80-671.63
Accounts Payable -8.6815.1441.1611.32245.93249.17416.50696.201,163.75
Capital Expenditure -4.15-14.79-20.56-52.51-46.44-94.51-157.97-264.06-441.40-737.83
UFCF 12.02118.60172.6797.42249.20479.85761.921,273.602,128.913,558.63
WACC
PV UFCF 432.53619.06932.761,405.422,117.59
SUM PV UFCF 5,507.36

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.94
Free cash flow (t + 1) 3,629.80
Terminal Value 40,601.79
Present Value of Terminal Value 24,160.41

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 29,667.77
Net Debt 817.11
Equity Value 28,850.66
Shares Outstanding 144.39
Equity Value Per Share 199.81