Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH)

$182.405

+0.55 (+0.30%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 277.06 | 182.405 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	624.33	774.43	1,382.05	2,330.85	3,660.63	5,749.07	9,028.98	14,180.13	22,270.07	34,975.41
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	113.92	158.51	198.52	517.63	689	1,082.09	1,699.43	2,668.97	4,191.66	6,583.05
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	99.81	140.41	166.08	461.49	603.39	947.63	1,488.27	2,337.34	3,670.82	5,765.07
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	14.12	18.10	32.44	56.14	85.61	134.46	211.16	331.63	520.84	817.98
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Total Cash	251.41	679.38	1,016.65	1,612.84	1,778.40	3,671.74	5,766.51	9,056.38	14,223.16	22,337.64
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	145.41	182.17	333.63	440.90	516.11	1,195.44	1,877.45	2,948.56	4,630.75	7,272.64
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	32.06	41.76	74.40	149.71	150.56	304.09	477.57	750.03	1,177.93	1,849.96
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	57.47	72.61	113.77	125.08	106.15	403.35	633.47	994.87	1,562.45	2,453.85
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-14.79	-20.56	-52.51	-46.44	-98.97	-155.44	-244.12	-383.40	-602.13	-945.65
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 182.405
Beta	1.516
Diluted Shares Outstanding	144.39
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	12.10
After-tax Cost of Debt	4.40%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	10.899
Total Debt	1,292.39
Total Equity	26,337.46
Total Capital	27,629.85
Debt Weighting	4.68
Equity Weighting	95.32
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	624.33	774.43	1,382.05	2,330.85	3,660.63	5,749.07	9,028.98	14,180.13	22,270.07	34,975.41
EBITDA	113.92	158.51	198.52	517.63	689	1,082.09	1,699.43	2,668.97	4,191.66	6,583.05
EBIT	99.81	140.41	166.08	461.49	603.39	947.63	1,488.27	2,337.34	3,670.82	5,765.07
Tax Rate	-78.83%	-12.21%	-20.28%	12.10%	-24.81%	-24.81%	-24.81%	-24.81%	-24.81%	-24.81%
EBIAT	178.48	157.56	199.76	405.66	753.06	1,182.69	1,857.43	2,917.12	4,581.38	7,195.11
Depreciation	14.12	18.10	32.44	56.14	85.61	134.46	211.16	331.63	520.84	817.98
Accounts Receivable	-	-36.75	-151.46	-107.27	-75.21	-679.33	-682.01	-1,071.11	-1,682.19	-2,641.90
Inventories	-	-9.71	-32.64	-75.31	-0.86	-153.52	-173.48	-272.46	-427.90	-672.03
Accounts Payable	-	15.14	41.16	11.32	-18.93	297.20	230.12	361.40	567.58	891.40
Capital Expenditure	-14.79	-20.56	-52.51	-46.44	-98.97	-155.44	-244.12	-383.40	-602.13	-945.65
UFCF	177.81	123.78	36.75	244.10	644.70	626.05	1,199.09	1,883.19	2,957.58	4,644.91
WACC
PV UFCF					644.70	566.05	980.26	1,391.97	1,976.59	2,806.74
SUM PV UFCF										7,721.60

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	10.60
Free cash flow (t + 1)	4,737.81
Terminal Value	55,090.81
Present Value of Terminal Value	33,289.21

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	41,010.82
Net Debt	1,006.35
Equity Value	40,004.47
Shares Outstanding	144.39
Equity Value Per Share	277.06