Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH)

$182.405

+0.55 (+0.30%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 277.06 | 182.405 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 624.33774.431,382.052,330.853,660.635,749.079,028.9814,180.1322,270.0734,975.41
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 113.92158.51198.52517.636891,082.091,699.432,668.974,191.666,583.05
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 99.81140.41166.08461.49603.39947.631,488.272,337.343,670.825,765.07
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 14.1218.1032.4456.1485.61134.46211.16331.63520.84817.98
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 251.41679.381,016.651,612.841,778.403,671.745,766.519,056.3814,223.1622,337.64
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 145.41182.17333.63440.90516.111,195.441,877.452,948.564,630.757,272.64
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 32.0641.7674.40149.71150.56304.09477.57750.031,177.931,849.96
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 57.4772.61113.77125.08106.15403.35633.47994.871,562.452,453.85
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -14.79-20.56-52.51-46.44-98.97-155.44-244.12-383.40-602.13-945.65
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 182.405
Beta 1.516
Diluted Shares Outstanding 144.39
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 12.10
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.40%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.899
Total Debt 1,292.39
Total Equity 26,337.46
Total Capital 27,629.85
Debt Weighting 4.68
Equity Weighting 95.32
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 624.33774.431,382.052,330.853,660.635,749.079,028.9814,180.1322,270.0734,975.41
EBITDA 113.92158.51198.52517.636891,082.091,699.432,668.974,191.666,583.05
EBIT 99.81140.41166.08461.49603.39947.631,488.272,337.343,670.825,765.07
Tax Rate -78.83%-12.21%-20.28%12.10%-24.81%-24.81%-24.81%-24.81%-24.81%-24.81%
EBIAT 178.48157.56199.76405.66753.061,182.691,857.432,917.124,581.387,195.11
Depreciation 14.1218.1032.4456.1485.61134.46211.16331.63520.84817.98
Accounts Receivable --36.75-151.46-107.27-75.21-679.33-682.01-1,071.11-1,682.19-2,641.90
Inventories --9.71-32.64-75.31-0.86-153.52-173.48-272.46-427.90-672.03
Accounts Payable -15.1441.1611.32-18.93297.20230.12361.40567.58891.40
Capital Expenditure -14.79-20.56-52.51-46.44-98.97-155.44-244.12-383.40-602.13-945.65
UFCF 177.81123.7836.75244.10644.70626.051,199.091,883.192,957.584,644.91
WACC
PV UFCF 644.70566.05980.261,391.971,976.592,806.74
SUM PV UFCF 7,721.60

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.60
Free cash flow (t + 1) 4,737.81
Terminal Value 55,090.81
Present Value of Terminal Value 33,289.21

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 41,010.82
Net Debt 1,006.35
Equity Value 40,004.47
Shares Outstanding 144.39
Equity Value Per Share 277.06