Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

The Ensign Group, Inc. (ENSG)

$87.84

+1.73 (+2.01%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 49.46 | 87.84 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,849.322,040.662,036.522,402.602,627.462,873.643,142.903,437.373,759.444,111.69
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 127.01177.73201.20280.65317.76282.95309.46338.46370.17404.86
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 82.54130.39150.15226.08261.78216.09236.34258.48282.70309.19
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 44.4747.3451.0554.5755.9866.8673.1379.9887.4795.67
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 55.4339.7676.93250.01275.96170.31186.26203.71222.80243.68
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 265.07276.10308.99305.06328.73392.22428.97469.16513.12561.20
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 39.0444.2444.9750.9058.1262.176874.3781.3488.96
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -57.17-54.95-71.54-50.33-69.55-80.68-88.24-96.51-105.55-115.44
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 87.84
Beta 1.019
Diluted Shares Outstanding 56.97
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 24.55
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.41%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.659
Total Debt 1,265.34
Total Equity 5,004.33
Total Capital 6,269.67
Debt Weighting 20.18
Equity Weighting 79.82
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,849.322,040.662,036.522,402.602,627.462,873.643,142.903,437.373,759.444,111.69
EBITDA 127.01177.73201.20280.65317.76282.95309.46338.46370.17404.86
EBIT 82.54130.39150.15226.08261.78216.09236.34258.48282.70309.19
Tax Rate 41.58%19.94%4.85%21.66%24.55%22.52%22.52%22.52%22.52%22.52%
EBIAT 48.22104.39142.87177.12197.50167.44183.12200.28219.05239.57
Depreciation 44.4747.3451.0554.5755.9866.8673.1379.9887.4795.67
Accounts Receivable --11.03-32.893.92-23.67-63.49-36.75-40.19-43.96-48.08
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -5.190.745.937.224.065.836.376.977.62
Capital Expenditure -57.17-54.95-71.54-50.33-69.55-80.68-88.24-96.51-105.55-115.44
UFCF 35.5390.9590.23191.21167.4894.19137.09149.93163.98179.34
WACC
PV UFCF 88.69121.55125.17128.91132.76
SUM PV UFCF 597.07

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.20
Free cash flow (t + 1) 182.93
Terminal Value 4,355.43
Present Value of Terminal Value 3,224.10

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 3,821.18
Net Debt 1,003.14
Equity Value 2,818.04
Shares Outstanding 56.97
Equity Value Per Share 49.46