Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Ero Copper Corp. (ERO)

$17.74

+0.68 (+3.99%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -14.34 | 17.74 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 233.10284.84324.08489.91426.39505.46599.19710.31842.03998.17
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 89.11139.53193.45311.30185.67256.77304.38360.82427.74507.05
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 43.8193.36154.10264.01126.70184.72218.98259.58307.72364.78
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 45.3046.1739.3547.2958.9772.0485.40101.24120.01142.27
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 18.9421.4962.51130.13317.40137.44162.93193.14228.96271.42
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 9.8124.5534.3145.8132.7840.8948.4857.4768.1380.76
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 14.6519.3825.5026.0230.9633.8940.1747.6256.4566.92
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 19.0121.8114.4824.0142.9335.6342.2450.0759.3670.37
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -101.17-106.27-117.81-181.83-295.82-226-267.91-317.59-376.48-446.29
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 17.74
Beta 2.181
Diluted Shares Outstanding 92.17
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 19.43
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.96%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 14.453
Total Debt 429.02
Total Equity 1,635.11
Total Capital 2,064.13
Debt Weighting 20.78
Equity Weighting 79.22
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 233.10284.84324.08489.91426.39505.46599.19710.31842.03998.17
EBITDA 89.11139.53193.45311.30185.67256.77304.38360.82427.74507.05
EBIT 43.8193.36154.10264.01126.70184.72218.98259.58307.72364.78
Tax Rate 218.56%-22.79%15.96%15.14%19.43%49.26%49.26%49.26%49.26%49.26%
EBIAT -51.95114.64129.51224.04102.0993.73111.11131.72156.14185.09
Depreciation 45.3046.1739.3547.2958.9772.0485.40101.24120.01142.27
Accounts Receivable --14.74-9.76-11.5013.03-8.12-7.58-8.99-10.66-12.63
Inventories --4.73-6.12-0.52-4.94-2.93-6.28-7.45-8.83-10.47
Accounts Payable -2.80-7.339.5318.92-7.306.617.839.2911.01
Capital Expenditure -101.17-106.27-117.81-181.83-295.82-226-267.91-317.59-376.48-446.29
UFCF -107.8237.8727.8487.01-107.74-78.57-78.65-93.24-110.53-131.02
WACC
PV UFCF -69.98-62.40-65.89-69.57-73.46
SUM PV UFCF -341.29

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 12.27
Free cash flow (t + 1) -133.64
Terminal Value -1,301.28
Present Value of Terminal Value -729.55

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -1,070.84
Net Debt 251.32
Equity Value -1,322.16
Shares Outstanding 92.17
Equity Value Per Share -14.34