Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Ero Copper Corp. (ERO.TO)

$13.67

-0.71 (-4.94%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 101.95 | 13.67 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 115.44233.11284.84324.08482.64708.041,038.731,523.852,235.543,279.61
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 54.1062.76132.03110.04288.22302.78444.19651.64955.971,402.45
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 21.3717.4685.8670.70240.93181.09265.67389.75571.77838.81
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 32.7345.3046.1739.3547.29121.68178.51261.89384.20563.63
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 51.1018.9421.4962.51130.13150.36220.58323.61474.74696.46
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 3.369.8124.5534.3145.8150.7274.41109.16160.14234.93
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 8.4814.6519.3825.5026.0247.7069.98102.67150.62220.96
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 13.3319.0121.8114.4824.0152.1176.45112.16164.54241.39
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -58.19-101.17-106.27-117.81-181.83-290.50-426.17-625.21-917.20-1,345.56
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 13.67
Beta 2.354
Diluted Shares Outstanding 86.37
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 15.14
After-tax Cost of Debt 7.15%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.967
Total Debt 66.36
Total Equity 1,180.66
Total Capital 1,247.02
Debt Weighting 5.32
Equity Weighting 94.68
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 115.44233.11284.84324.08482.64708.041,038.731,523.852,235.543,279.61
EBITDA 54.1062.76132.03110.04288.22302.78444.19651.64955.971,402.45
EBIT 21.3717.4685.8670.70240.93181.09265.67389.75571.77838.81
Tax Rate -1,054.47%218.56%-22.79%15.96%15.14%-165.52%-165.52%-165.52%-165.52%-165.52%
EBIAT 246.76-20.70105.4359.42204.46480.84705.411,034.861,518.182,227.22
Depreciation 32.7345.3046.1739.3547.29121.68178.51261.89384.20563.63
Accounts Receivable --6.45-14.74-9.76-11.50-4.91-23.69-34.75-50.98-74.79
Inventories --6.17-4.73-6.12-0.52-21.69-22.28-32.68-47.95-70.34
Accounts Payable -5.682.80-7.339.5328.1024.3435.7152.3876.85
Capital Expenditure -58.19-101.17-106.27-117.81-181.83-290.50-426.17-625.21-917.20-1,345.56
UFCF 221.30-83.5228.66-42.2567.42313.54436.13639.81938.631,377
WACC
PV UFCF 276337.95436.43563.61727.85
SUM PV UFCF 2,341.84

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 13.60
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,404.54
Terminal Value 12,108.08
Present Value of Terminal Value 6,400.05

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 8,741.90
Net Debt -63.77
Equity Value 8,805.66
Shares Outstanding 86.37
Equity Value Per Share 101.95