Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Empire State Realty OP, L.P. (ESBA)
$7.49
+0.49 (+7.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 712.47 | 731.51 | 731.34 | 609.23 | 624.09 | 605.98 | 588.40 | 571.32 | 554.75 | 538.65 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 353.35 | 369.18 | 346.67 | 265 | 289.28 | 287.61 | 279.27 | 271.16 | 263.30 | 255.66 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 192.64 | 200.67 | 165.08 | 73.99 | 79.64 | 123.56 | 119.97 | 116.49 | 113.11 | 109.83 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 160.71 | 168.51 | 181.59 | 191.01 | 209.64 | 164.06 | 159.30 | 154.67 | 150.19 | 145.83 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 464.34 | 604.98 | 233.95 | 526.71 | 423.69 | 405.05 | 393.30 | 381.89 | 370.80 | 360.04 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 206.96 | 230.34 | 246.38 | 191.35 | 196.02 | 190.33 | 184.81 | 179.44 | 174.24 | 169.18 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 32.51 | 34.58 | 35.08 | 103.20 | 41.66 | 45.70 | 44.37 | 43.08 | 41.83 | 40.62 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -222.98 | -243.02 | -250.25 | -143.12 | -190.71 | -185.17 | -179.80 | -174.58 | -169.51 | -164.60 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 7.49 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.190 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 277.72 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 11.85 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.56% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.135 |
| Total Debt | 2,339.26 |
| Total Equity | 2,080.09 |
| Total Capital | 4,419.35 |
| Debt Weighting | 52.93 |
| Equity Weighting | 47.07 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 712.47 | 731.51 | 731.34 | 609.23 | 624.09 | 605.98 | 588.40 | 571.32 | 554.75 | 538.65 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 353.35 | 369.18 | 346.67 | 265 | 289.28 | 287.61 | 279.27 | 271.16 | 263.30 | 255.66 |
| EBIT | 192.64 | 200.67 | 165.08 | 73.99 | 79.64 | 123.56 | 119.97 | 116.49 | 113.11 | 109.83 |
| Tax Rate | 5.95% | 4.51% | 3.82% | 23.35% | 11.85% | 9.90% | 9.90% | 9.90% | 9.90% | 9.90% |
| EBIAT | 181.18 | 191.62 | 158.77 | 56.72 | 70.20 | 111.33 | 108.10 | 104.96 | 101.92 | 98.96 |
| Depreciation | 160.71 | 168.51 | 181.59 | 191.01 | 209.64 | 164.06 | 159.30 | 154.67 | 150.19 | 145.83 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -23.38 | -16.04 | 55.03 | -4.67 | 5.69 | 5.52 | 5.36 | 5.21 | 5.06 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 2.08 | 0.50 | 68.12 | -61.54 | 4.03 | -1.33 | -1.29 | -1.25 | -1.21 |
| Capital Expenditure | -222.98 | -243.02 | -250.25 | -143.12 | -190.71 | -185.17 | -179.80 | -174.58 | -169.51 | -164.60 |
| UFCF | 118.91 | 95.80 | 74.56 | 227.76 | 22.92 | 99.94 | 91.80 | 89.13 | 86.55 | 84.03 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 94.12 | 81.42 | 74.46 | 68.09 | 62.26 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 380.35 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.18 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 85.71 |
| Terminal Value | 2,050.59 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 1,519.38 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 1,899.73 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 1,915.56 |
| Equity Value | -15.83 |
| Shares Outstanding | 277.72 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -0.06 |