Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
ESCO Technologies Inc. (ESE)
$95.87
+3.42 (+3.70%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 771.58 | 812.97 | 732.91 | 715.44 | 857.50 | 885.35 | 914.10 | 943.78 | 974.43 | 1,006.07 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 134.53 | 150.66 | 164.33 | 124.97 | 159.63 | 167.28 | 172.71 | 178.32 | 184.11 | 190.09 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 96.77 | 110.61 | 122.99 | 82.93 | 111.29 | 119.52 | 123.40 | 127.41 | 131.54 | 135.81 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 37.75 | 40.05 | 41.34 | 42.05 | 48.34 | 47.76 | 49.32 | 50.92 | 52.57 | 54.28 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 30.48 | 61.81 | 52.56 | 56.23 | 97.72 | 67.25 | 69.44 | 71.69 | 74.02 | 76.42 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 216.77 | 289.74 | 240.83 | 240.11 | 289.80 | 290.31 | 299.73 | 309.47 | 319.52 | 329.89 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 135.42 | 128.82 | 136.19 | 147.15 | 162.40 | 161.99 | 167.25 | 172.68 | 178.29 | 184.08 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 63.03 | 71.37 | 50.52 | 56.67 | 78.75 | 72.50 | 74.86 | 77.29 | 79.80 | 82.39 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -30.16 | -45.57 | -41.13 | -35.49 | -45.01 | -44.86 | -46.32 | -47.82 | -49.38 | -50.98 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 95.87 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.118 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 26.23 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 22.66 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.11% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.983 |
| Total Debt | 177.85 |
| Total Equity | 2,514.19 |
| Total Capital | 2,692.04 |
| Debt Weighting | 6.61 |
| Equity Weighting | 93.39 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 771.58 | 812.97 | 732.91 | 715.44 | 857.50 | 885.35 | 914.10 | 943.78 | 974.43 | 1,006.07 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 134.53 | 150.66 | 164.33 | 124.97 | 159.63 | 167.28 | 172.71 | 178.32 | 184.11 | 190.09 |
| EBIT | 96.77 | 110.61 | 122.99 | 82.93 | 111.29 | 119.52 | 123.40 | 127.41 | 131.54 | 135.81 |
| Tax Rate | -4.67% | 20.72% | -156.60% | 21.29% | 22.66% | -19.32% | -19.32% | -19.32% | -19.32% | -19.32% |
| EBIAT | 101.29 | 87.70 | 315.59 | 65.27 | 86.07 | 142.61 | 147.24 | 152.02 | 156.96 | 162.05 |
| Depreciation | 37.75 | 40.05 | 41.34 | 42.05 | 48.34 | 47.76 | 49.32 | 50.92 | 52.57 | 54.28 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -72.96 | 48.91 | 0.72 | -49.69 | -0.51 | -9.43 | -9.73 | -10.05 | -10.38 |
| Inventories | - | 6.59 | -7.36 | -10.96 | -15.25 | 0.41 | -5.26 | -5.43 | -5.61 | -5.79 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 8.34 | -20.85 | 6.14 | 22.08 | -6.24 | 2.35 | 2.43 | 2.51 | 2.59 |
| Capital Expenditure | -30.16 | -45.57 | -41.13 | -35.49 | -45.01 | -44.86 | -46.32 | -47.82 | -49.38 | -50.98 |
| UFCF | 108.89 | 24.14 | 336.49 | 67.73 | 46.54 | 139.17 | 137.90 | 142.38 | 147.01 | 151.78 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 128.23 | 117.08 | 111.38 | 105.96 | 100.80 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 563.45 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.53 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 154.81 |
| Terminal Value | 2,370.82 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 1,574.52 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 2,137.97 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 80.13 |
| Equity Value | 2,057.84 |
| Shares Outstanding | 26.23 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 78.47 |