Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Elbit Systems Ltd. (ESLT)

$220.965

-4.51 (-2.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -33.46 | 220.965 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 3,683.684,508.404,662.575,278.525,511.556,110.016,773.457,508.938,324.279,228.15
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 399.59452.51477.51576.94505.21625.94693.90769.25852.78945.37
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 281.38315.37333.09423.84343.92440.50488.33541.35600.14665.30
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 118.20137.15144.42153.09161.29185.44205.57227.90252.64280.07
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 224.93223.27280.32260.18212.15315.87350.17388.19430.34477.07
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,912.062,228.572,675.893,049.352,873.303,282.673,639.114,034.254,472.304,957.92
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,1421,219.921,316.691,670.471,946.331,872.842,076.202,301.642,551.562,828.61
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 776.10926.341,007.241,023.681,067.821,246.271,381.591,531.611,697.911,882.28
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -102.30-137.60-132.21-188.62-205.11-195.03-216.21-239.68-265.71-294.56
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 220.965
Beta -0.090
Diluted Shares Outstanding 44.58
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 5.85
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.96%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 3.781
Total Debt 1,285.62
Total Equity 9,850.84
Total Capital 11,136.46
Debt Weighting 11.54
Equity Weighting 88.46
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 3,683.684,508.404,662.575,278.525,511.556,110.016,773.457,508.938,324.279,228.15
EBITDA 399.59452.51477.51576.94505.21625.94693.90769.25852.78945.37
EBIT 281.38315.37333.09423.84343.92440.50488.33541.35600.14665.30
Tax Rate 12.89%7.49%9.23%28.45%5.85%12.78%12.78%12.78%12.78%12.78%
EBIAT 245.12291.76302.35303.25323.81384.20425.92472.16523.43580.27
Depreciation 118.20137.15144.42153.09161.29185.44205.57227.90252.64280.07
Accounts Receivable --316.51-447.32-373.46176.05-409.36-356.44-395.14-438.05-485.62
Inventories --77.92-96.77-353.79-275.8573.49-203.36-225.44-249.92-277.06
Accounts Payable -150.2480.9016.4444.14178.45135.32150.02166.31184.36
Capital Expenditure -102.30-137.60-132.21-188.62-205.11-195.03-216.21-239.68-265.71-294.56
UFCF 261.0247.10-148.63-443.09224.32217.18-9.19-10.19-11.29-12.52
WACC
PV UFCF 209.23-8.53-9.11-9.73-10.39
SUM PV UFCF 171.47

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 3.80
Free cash flow (t + 1) -12.77
Terminal Value -709.52
Present Value of Terminal Value -588.81

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -417.34
Net Debt 1,074.51
Equity Value -1,491.85
Shares Outstanding 44.58
Equity Value Per Share -33.46