Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (ESRT)
$5.82
-0.42 (-6.73%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 731.51 | 731.34 | 609.23 | 624.09 | 727.04 | 731.07 | 735.12 | 739.19 | 743.28 | 747.40 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 319.31 | 314.45 | 261.43 | 295.79 | 360.29 | 331.19 | 333.02 | 334.86 | 336.72 | 338.58 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 150.80 | 132.86 | 70.42 | 86.15 | 143.40 | 122.63 | 123.31 | 123.99 | 124.68 | 125.37 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 168.51 | 181.59 | 191.01 | 209.64 | 216.89 | 208.56 | 209.71 | 210.88 | 212.04 | 213.22 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 604.98 | 233.95 | 526.71 | 423.69 | 264.43 | 446.55 | 449.02 | 451.51 | 454.01 | 456.52 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 230.34 | 246.38 | 244.05 | 243.57 | 264.29 | 264.08 | 265.55 | 267.02 | 268.50 | 269.98 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 34.58 | 35.08 | 32.31 | 41.66 | 80.73 | 47.68 | 47.94 | 48.21 | 48.47 | 48.74 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -243.02 | -250.26 | -205.43 | -210.45 | -245.16 | -246.52 | -247.88 | -249.26 | -250.64 | -252.03 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 5.82 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.210 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 269.95 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 37.24 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.79% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.116 |
| Total Debt | 2,274.81 |
| Total Equity | 1,571.10 |
| Total Capital | 3,845.90 |
| Debt Weighting | 59.15 |
| Equity Weighting | 40.85 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 731.51 | 731.34 | 609.23 | 624.09 | 727.04 | 731.07 | 735.12 | 739.19 | 743.28 | 747.40 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 319.31 | 314.45 | 261.43 | 295.79 | 360.29 | 331.19 | 333.02 | 334.86 | 336.72 | 338.58 |
| EBIT | 150.80 | 132.86 | 70.42 | 86.15 | 143.40 | 122.63 | 123.31 | 123.99 | 124.68 | 125.37 |
| Tax Rate | 45.41% | 40.97% | 58.09% | 55.93% | 37.24% | 47.53% | 47.53% | 47.53% | 47.53% | 47.53% |
| EBIAT | 82.32 | 78.43 | 29.52 | 37.97 | 90 | 64.35 | 64.70 | 65.06 | 65.42 | 65.78 |
| Depreciation | 168.51 | 181.59 | 191.01 | 209.64 | 216.89 | 208.56 | 209.71 | 210.88 | 212.04 | 213.22 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -16.04 | 2.33 | 0.48 | -20.72 | 0.21 | -1.46 | -1.47 | -1.48 | -1.49 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 0.50 | -2.78 | 9.35 | 39.06 | -33.05 | 0.26 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| Capital Expenditure | -243.02 | -250.26 | -205.43 | -210.45 | -245.16 | -246.52 | -247.88 | -249.26 | -250.64 | -252.03 |
| UFCF | 7.80 | -5.79 | 14.65 | 46.99 | 80.07 | -6.46 | 25.33 | 25.47 | 25.61 | 25.76 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -6.13 | 22.81 | 21.77 | 20.77 | 19.82 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 79.04 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 5.38 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 26.27 |
| Terminal Value | 777.27 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 598.11 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 677.15 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 2,010.37 |
| Equity Value | -1,333.22 |
| Shares Outstanding | 269.95 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -4.94 |