Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
ESSA Bancorp, Inc. (ESSA)
$19.76
-0.23 (-1.15%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 53.72 | 56.05 | 55.17 | 61.46 | 64.39 | 67.43 | 70.63 | 73.97 | 77.47 | 81.14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 23.68 | 30.11 | 37.18 | 35.68 | 27.88 | 35.95 | 37.65 | 39.43 | 41.30 | 43.25 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 21.73 | 28.46 | 35.79 | 33.46 | 25.69 | 33.78 | 35.38 | 37.05 | 38.81 | 40.64 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 1.95 | 1.65 | 1.39 | 2.21 | 2.19 | 2.17 | 2.27 | 2.38 | 2.49 | 2.61 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 432.64 | 415.48 | 365.64 | 368.40 | 399.53 | 462.52 | 484.41 | 507.34 | 531.36 | 556.51 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -0.65 | -0.67 | -0.66 | -0.74 | -0.77 | -0.81 | -0.85 | -0.89 | -0.93 | -0.97 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 19.76 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.316 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 9.95 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 17.45 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.13% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 5.454 |
| Total Debt | - |
| Total Equity | 196.56 |
| Total Capital | 196.56 |
| Debt Weighting | 0.00 |
| Equity Weighting | 100.00 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 53.72 | 56.05 | 55.17 | 61.46 | 64.39 | 67.43 | 70.63 | 73.97 | 77.47 | 81.14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 23.68 | 30.11 | 37.18 | 35.68 | 27.88 | 35.95 | 37.65 | 39.43 | 41.30 | 43.25 |
| EBIT | 21.73 | 28.46 | 35.79 | 33.46 | 25.69 | 33.78 | 35.38 | 37.05 | 38.81 | 40.64 |
| Tax Rate | 17.82% | 46.45% | 16.06% | 18.09% | 17.45% | 23.17% | 23.17% | 23.17% | 23.17% | 23.17% |
| EBIAT | 17.86 | 15.24 | 30.04 | 27.41 | 21.21 | 25.95 | 27.18 | 28.47 | 29.81 | 31.22 |
| Depreciation | 1.95 | 1.65 | 1.39 | 2.21 | 2.19 | 2.17 | 2.27 | 2.38 | 2.49 | 2.61 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Capital Expenditure | -0.65 | -0.67 | -0.83 | -1.06 | -0.40 | -0.81 | -0.85 | -0.89 | -0.93 | -0.97 |
| UFCF | 19.16 | 16.22 | 30.77 | 28.88 | 22.62 | 27.31 | 28.60 | 29.96 | 31.37 | 32.86 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 25.90 | 25.72 | 25.55 | 25.37 | 25.20 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 127.75 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 5.45 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 33.52 |
| Terminal Value | 971.52 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 745.11 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 872.85 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -158.95 |
| Equity Value | 1,031.80 |
| Shares Outstanding | 9.95 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 103.72 |