Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
ESSA Bancorp, Inc. (ESSA)
$18.4
-0.05 (-0.27%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 53.72 | 56.05 | 55.17 | 61.46 | 64.39 | 67.43 | 70.63 | 73.97 | 77.47 | 81.14 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 23.68 | 30.11 | 37.18 | 35.68 | 27.88 | 35.95 | 37.65 | 39.43 | 41.30 | 43.25 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 21.73 | 28.46 | 35.79 | 33.46 | 25.69 | 33.78 | 35.38 | 37.05 | 38.81 | 40.64 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 1.95 | 1.65 | 1.39 | 2.21 | 2.19 | 2.17 | 2.27 | 2.38 | 2.49 | 2.61 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Total Cash | 432.64 | 415.48 | 365.64 | 368.40 | 399.53 | 462.52 | 484.41 | 507.34 | 531.36 | 556.51 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -0.65 | -0.67 | -0.66 | -0.74 | -0.77 | -0.81 | -0.85 | -0.89 | -0.93 | -0.97 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 18.4 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.364 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 9.95 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 17.45 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.13% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 4.517 |
Total Debt | - |
Total Equity | 183.03 |
Total Capital | 183.03 |
Debt Weighting | 0.00 |
Equity Weighting | 100.00 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 53.72 | 56.05 | 55.17 | 61.46 | 64.39 | 67.43 | 70.63 | 73.97 | 77.47 | 81.14 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 23.68 | 30.11 | 37.18 | 35.68 | 27.88 | 35.95 | 37.65 | 39.43 | 41.30 | 43.25 |
EBIT | 21.73 | 28.46 | 35.79 | 33.46 | 25.69 | 33.78 | 35.38 | 37.05 | 38.81 | 40.64 |
Tax Rate | 17.82% | 46.45% | 16.06% | 18.09% | 17.45% | 23.17% | 23.17% | 23.17% | 23.17% | 23.17% |
EBIAT | 17.86 | 15.24 | 30.04 | 27.41 | 21.21 | 25.95 | 27.18 | 28.47 | 29.81 | 31.22 |
Depreciation | 1.95 | 1.65 | 1.39 | 2.21 | 2.19 | 2.17 | 2.27 | 2.38 | 2.49 | 2.61 |
Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Capital Expenditure | -0.65 | -0.67 | -0.83 | -1.06 | -0.40 | -0.81 | -0.85 | -0.89 | -0.93 | -0.97 |
UFCF | 19.16 | 16.22 | 30.77 | 28.88 | 22.62 | 27.31 | 28.60 | 29.96 | 31.37 | 32.86 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 26.13 | 26.18 | 26.24 | 26.29 | 26.34 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 131.18 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 4.52 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 33.52 |
Terminal Value | 1,330.06 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 1,066.28 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 1,197.47 |
---|---|
Net Debt | -158.95 |
Equity Value | 1,356.41 |
Shares Outstanding | 9.95 |
Equity Value Per Share | 136.36 |