Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

ESSA Bancorp, Inc. (ESSA)

$19.76

-0.23 (-1.15%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 103.72 | 19.76 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 53.7256.0555.1761.4664.3967.4370.6373.9777.4781.14
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 23.6830.1137.1835.6827.8835.9537.6539.4341.3043.25
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 21.7328.4635.7933.4625.6933.7835.3837.0538.8140.64
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1.951.651.392.212.192.172.272.382.492.61
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 432.64415.48365.64368.40399.53462.52484.41507.34531.36556.51
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable ----------
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -0.65-0.67-0.66-0.74-0.77-0.81-0.85-0.89-0.93-0.97
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 19.76
Beta 0.316
Diluted Shares Outstanding 9.95
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 17.45
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.13%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 5.454
Total Debt -
Total Equity 196.56
Total Capital 196.56
Debt Weighting 0.00
Equity Weighting 100.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 53.7256.0555.1761.4664.3967.4370.6373.9777.4781.14
EBITDA 23.6830.1137.1835.6827.8835.9537.6539.4341.3043.25
EBIT 21.7328.4635.7933.4625.6933.7835.3837.0538.8140.64
Tax Rate 17.82%46.45%16.06%18.09%17.45%23.17%23.17%23.17%23.17%23.17%
EBIAT 17.8615.2430.0427.4121.2125.9527.1828.4729.8131.22
Depreciation 1.951.651.392.212.192.172.272.382.492.61
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable ----------
Capital Expenditure -0.65-0.67-0.83-1.06-0.40-0.81-0.85-0.89-0.93-0.97
UFCF 19.1616.2230.7728.8822.6227.3128.6029.9631.3732.86
WACC
PV UFCF 25.9025.7225.5525.3725.20
SUM PV UFCF 127.75

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.45
Free cash flow (t + 1) 33.52
Terminal Value 971.52
Present Value of Terminal Value 745.11

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 872.85
Net Debt -158.95
Equity Value 1,031.80
Shares Outstanding 9.95
Equity Value Per Share 103.72