Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Elastic N.V. (ESTC)

$121.28

-4.10 (-3.27%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -275.98 | 121.28 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 271.65427.62608.49862.371,068.991,5112,135.773,018.884,267.136,031.52
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -95.66-158.25-112.24-157.35-140.19-368.76-521.24-736.76-1,041.40-1,472.01
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -101.36-171.10-129.48-177.07-160.42-405.38-573-809.92-1,144.81-1,618.17
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 5.6912.8617.2419.7320.2336.6251.7673.16103.41146.16
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 298297.08400.81860.95915.211,300.941,838.862,599.203,673.935,193.04
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 81.27128.69160.41215.23260.92410.21579.82819.571,158.451,637.45
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 19.5021.8538.9846.3258.2989.19126.07178.20251.89356.04
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 4.4511.497.2528.4035.1536.5651.6773.04103.24145.93
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -3.45-5.06-4.23-7.42-2.68-12.87-18.19-25.72-36.35-51.38
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 121.28
Beta 0.951
Diluted Shares Outstanding 95.73
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -8.89
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.30%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.792
Total Debt 594.23
Total Equity 11,610.12
Total Capital 12,204.35
Debt Weighting 4.87
Equity Weighting 95.13
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 271.65427.62608.49862.371,068.991,5112,135.773,018.884,267.136,031.52
EBITDA -95.66-158.25-112.24-157.35-140.19-368.76-521.24-736.76-1,041.40-1,472.01
EBIT -101.36-171.10-129.48-177.07-160.42-405.38-573-809.92-1,144.81-1,618.17
Tax Rate -4.48%1.16%-6.34%-3.06%-8.89%-4.32%-4.32%-4.32%-4.32%-4.32%
EBIAT -105.90-169.11-137.69-182.50-174.69-422.90-597.77-844.94-1,194.30-1,688.13
Depreciation 5.6912.8617.2419.7320.2336.6251.7673.16103.41146.16
Accounts Receivable --47.42-31.73-54.81-45.69-149.29-169.61-239.75-338.88-479
Inventories --2.35-17.14-7.33-11.97-30.91-36.88-52.13-73.68-104.15
Accounts Payable -7.04-4.2421.166.751.4115.1221.3730.2042.69
Capital Expenditure -3.45-5.06-4.23-7.42-2.68-12.87-18.19-25.72-36.35-51.38
UFCF -103.65-204.05-177.78-211.18-208.05-577.95-755.58-1,068-1,509.61-2,133.80
WACC
PV UFCF -532.33-641.01-834.53-1,086.49-1,414.51
SUM PV UFCF -4,508.86

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.57
Free cash flow (t + 1) -2,176.48
Terminal Value -33,127.55
Present Value of Terminal Value -21,960.40

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -26,469.26
Net Debt -49.93
Equity Value -26,419.33
Shares Outstanding 95.73
Equity Value Per Share -275.98