Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Energy Transfer LP (ET)

$10.935

+0.05 (+0.41%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -69.44 | 10.935 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 40,52354,08754,21338,95467,41780,669.0296,525.96115,499.86138,203.42165,369.78
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 3,5976,6129,2655,59411,73811,287.6513,506.4416,161.3819,338.1823,139.45
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,0433,7536,1181,9167,215.115,875.717,030.688,412.6910,066.3612,045.08
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 2,5542,8593,1473,6784,522.895,411.946,475.767,748.699,271.8311,094.37
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 3364192913673,2831,283.031,535.231,837.012,198.112,630.18
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 4,6934,1935,3433,9897,7408,213.739,828.2811,760.2014,071.8816,837.96
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 2,0221,6771,9351,7392,0143,083.363,689.454,414.685,282.466,320.83
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 4,6853,4934,1182,8096,8346,931.638,294.169,924.5311,875.3814,209.69
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -8,444-7,407-5,960-5,130-2,822-10,145.11-12,139.32-14,525.52-17,380.77-20,797.27
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 10.935
Beta 1.895
Diluted Shares Outstanding 2,739.50
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 20.39
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.57%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.741
Total Debt 50,563
Total Equity 29,956.43
Total Capital 80,519.43
Debt Weighting 62.80
Equity Weighting 37.20
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 40,52354,08754,21338,95467,41780,669.0296,525.96115,499.86138,203.42165,369.78
EBITDA 3,5976,6129,2655,59411,73811,287.6513,506.4416,161.3819,338.1823,139.45
EBIT 1,0433,7536,1181,9167,215.115,875.717,030.688,412.6910,066.3612,045.08
Tax Rate -34.37%53.38%29.49%271.88%20.39%68.16%68.16%68.16%68.16%68.16%
EBIAT 1,401.441,749.474,314.07-3,293.285,743.951,871.092,238.892,678.983,205.583,835.69
Depreciation 2,5542,8593,1473,6784,522.895,411.946,475.767,748.699,271.8311,094.37
Accounts Receivable -500-1,1501,354-3,751-473.73-1,614.55-1,931.92-2,311.68-2,766.08
Inventories -345-258196-275-1,069.36-606.09-725.23-867.78-1,038.36
Accounts Payable --1,192625-1,3094,02597.631,362.541,630.371,950.842,334.32
Capital Expenditure -8,444-7,407-5,960-5,130-2,822-10,145.11-12,139.32-14,525.52-17,380.77-20,797.27
UFCF -4,488.56-3,145.53718.07-4,504.287,443.84-4,307.54-4,282.78-5,124.64-6,131.97-7,337.32
WACC
PV UFCF -4,040.46-3,768.16-4,229.31-4,746.88-5,327.80
SUM PV UFCF -22,112.62

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.61
Free cash flow (t + 1) -7,484.07
Terminal Value -162,344.26
Present Value of Terminal Value -117,881.93

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -139,994.55
Net Debt 50,227
Equity Value -190,221.55
Shares Outstanding 2,739.50
Equity Value Per Share -69.44