Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Exact Sciences Corporation (EXAS)
$82.01
+1.18 (+1.46%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 454.46 | 876.29 | 1,491.39 | 1,767.09 | 2,084.28 | 3,123.55 | 4,681.02 | 7,015.08 | 10,512.95 | 15,754.94 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | -115.18 | -157 | -609.92 | -649.28 | -421.10 | -881.50 | -1,321.03 | -1,979.73 | -2,966.86 | -4,446.20 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | -138.27 | -207.25 | -773.28 | -829.63 | -618.66 | -1,140.45 | -1,709.10 | -2,561.30 | -3,838.41 | -5,752.33 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 23.08 | 50.25 | 163.36 | 180.35 | 197.56 | 258.95 | 388.07 | 581.57 | 871.55 | 1,306.13 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 1,124.18 | 323.65 | 1,839.99 | 1,030.48 | 632.06 | 3,100.52 | 4,646.51 | 6,963.36 | 10,435.44 | 15,638.78 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 44.24 | 130.67 | 233.18 | 216.65 | 158.04 | 375.60 | 562.88 | 843.55 | 1,264.16 | 1,894.49 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 39.15 | 61.72 | 92.26 | 104.99 | 118.26 | 209.03 | 313.25 | 469.45 | 703.52 | 1,054.32 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 28.14 | 25.97 | 35.71 | 67.83 | 74.92 | 118.59 | 177.72 | 266.34 | 399.14 | 598.16 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -150.67 | -171.80 | -64.35 | -135.77 | -214.46 | -468.82 | -702.59 | -1,052.92 | -1,577.92 | -2,364.71 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 82.01 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.413 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 176.35 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 1.43 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.56% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 10.480 |
Total Debt | 2,446.87 |
Total Equity | 14,462.55 |
Total Capital | 16,909.42 |
Debt Weighting | 14.47 |
Equity Weighting | 85.53 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 454.46 | 876.29 | 1,491.39 | 1,767.09 | 2,084.28 | 3,123.55 | 4,681.02 | 7,015.08 | 10,512.95 | 15,754.94 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | -115.18 | -157 | -609.92 | -649.28 | -421.10 | -881.50 | -1,321.03 | -1,979.73 | -2,966.86 | -4,446.20 |
EBIT | -138.27 | -207.25 | -773.28 | -829.63 | -618.66 | -1,140.45 | -1,709.10 | -2,561.30 | -3,838.41 | -5,752.33 |
Tax Rate | -0.05% | 68.76% | 1.00% | 29.30% | 1.43% | 20.09% | 20.09% | 20.09% | 20.09% | 20.09% |
EBIAT | -138.34 | -64.75 | -765.55 | -586.52 | -609.80 | -911.35 | -1,365.77 | -2,046.77 | -3,067.34 | -4,596.78 |
Depreciation | 23.08 | 50.25 | 163.36 | 180.35 | 197.56 | 258.95 | 388.07 | 581.57 | 871.55 | 1,306.13 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -86.43 | -102.52 | 16.54 | 58.60 | -217.56 | -187.28 | -280.66 | -420.61 | -630.34 |
Inventories | - | -22.58 | -30.54 | -12.73 | -13.27 | -90.77 | -104.23 | -156.19 | -234.08 | -350.79 |
Accounts Payable | - | -2.17 | 9.74 | 32.12 | 7.09 | 43.67 | 59.13 | 88.62 | 132.80 | 199.02 |
Capital Expenditure | -150.67 | -171.80 | -64.35 | -135.77 | -214.46 | -468.82 | -702.59 | -1,052.92 | -1,577.92 | -2,364.71 |
UFCF | -265.93 | -297.48 | -789.86 | -506.01 | -574.28 | -1,385.87 | -1,912.66 | -2,866.36 | -4,295.59 | -6,437.47 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -1,270.98 | -1,608.67 | -2,210.92 | -3,038.64 | -4,176.25 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | -12,305.46 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 9.04 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -6,566.22 |
Terminal Value | -93,270.17 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | -60,508.10 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | -72,813.56 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 2,204.38 |
Equity Value | -75,017.94 |
Shares Outstanding | 176.35 |
Equity Value Per Share | -425.39 |