Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Exact Sciences Corporation (EXAS)

$65.41

+1.24 (+1.93%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -470.85 | 65.41 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 454.46876.291,491.391,767.092,084.283,123.554,681.027,015.0810,512.9515,754.94
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -115.18-157-609.92-649.28-421.10-881.50-1,321.03-1,979.73-2,966.86-4,446.20
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -138.27-207.25-773.28-829.63-618.66-1,140.45-1,709.10-2,561.30-3,838.41-5,752.33
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 23.0850.25163.36180.35197.56258.95388.07581.57871.551,306.13
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 1,124.18323.651,839.991,030.48632.063,100.524,646.516,963.3610,435.4415,638.78
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 44.24130.67233.18216.65158.04375.60562.88843.551,264.161,894.49
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 39.1561.7292.26104.99118.26209.03313.25469.45703.521,054.32
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 28.1425.9735.7167.8374.92118.59177.72266.34399.14598.16
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -150.67-171.80-64.35-135.77-214.46-468.82-702.59-1,052.92-1,577.92-2,364.71
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 65.41
Beta 1.416
Diluted Shares Outstanding 176.35
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 1.43
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.56%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.089
Total Debt 2,446.87
Total Equity 11,535.12
Total Capital 13,981.99
Debt Weighting 17.50
Equity Weighting 82.50
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 454.46876.291,491.391,767.092,084.283,123.554,681.027,015.0810,512.9515,754.94
EBITDA -115.18-157-609.92-649.28-421.10-881.50-1,321.03-1,979.73-2,966.86-4,446.20
EBIT -138.27-207.25-773.28-829.63-618.66-1,140.45-1,709.10-2,561.30-3,838.41-5,752.33
Tax Rate -0.05%68.76%1.00%29.30%1.43%20.09%20.09%20.09%20.09%20.09%
EBIAT -138.34-64.75-765.55-586.52-609.80-911.35-1,365.77-2,046.77-3,067.34-4,596.78
Depreciation 23.0850.25163.36180.35197.56258.95388.07581.57871.551,306.13
Accounts Receivable --86.43-102.5216.5458.60-217.56-187.28-280.66-420.61-630.34
Inventories --22.58-30.54-12.73-13.27-90.77-104.23-156.19-234.08-350.79
Accounts Payable --2.179.7432.127.0943.6759.1388.62132.80199.02
Capital Expenditure -150.67-171.80-64.35-135.77-214.46-468.82-702.59-1,052.92-1,577.92-2,364.71
UFCF -265.93-297.48-789.86-506.01-574.28-1,385.87-1,912.66-2,866.36-4,295.59-6,437.47
WACC
PV UFCF -1,278.24-1,627.12-2,249.07-3,108.75-4,297.03
SUM PV UFCF -12,560.21

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.42
Free cash flow (t + 1) -6,566.22
Terminal Value -102,277.56
Present Value of Terminal Value -68,270.54

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -80,830.75
Net Debt 2,204.38
Equity Value -83,035.13
Shares Outstanding 176.35
Equity Value Per Share -470.85