Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Exact Sciences Corporation (EXAS)
$65.41
+1.24 (+1.93%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 454.46 | 876.29 | 1,491.39 | 1,767.09 | 2,084.28 | 3,123.55 | 4,681.02 | 7,015.08 | 10,512.95 | 15,754.94 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -115.18 | -157 | -609.92 | -649.28 | -421.10 | -881.50 | -1,321.03 | -1,979.73 | -2,966.86 | -4,446.20 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -138.27 | -207.25 | -773.28 | -829.63 | -618.66 | -1,140.45 | -1,709.10 | -2,561.30 | -3,838.41 | -5,752.33 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 23.08 | 50.25 | 163.36 | 180.35 | 197.56 | 258.95 | 388.07 | 581.57 | 871.55 | 1,306.13 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 1,124.18 | 323.65 | 1,839.99 | 1,030.48 | 632.06 | 3,100.52 | 4,646.51 | 6,963.36 | 10,435.44 | 15,638.78 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 44.24 | 130.67 | 233.18 | 216.65 | 158.04 | 375.60 | 562.88 | 843.55 | 1,264.16 | 1,894.49 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 39.15 | 61.72 | 92.26 | 104.99 | 118.26 | 209.03 | 313.25 | 469.45 | 703.52 | 1,054.32 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 28.14 | 25.97 | 35.71 | 67.83 | 74.92 | 118.59 | 177.72 | 266.34 | 399.14 | 598.16 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -150.67 | -171.80 | -64.35 | -135.77 | -214.46 | -468.82 | -702.59 | -1,052.92 | -1,577.92 | -2,364.71 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 65.41 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.416 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 176.35 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 1.43 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.56% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 10.089 |
| Total Debt | 2,446.87 |
| Total Equity | 11,535.12 |
| Total Capital | 13,981.99 |
| Debt Weighting | 17.50 |
| Equity Weighting | 82.50 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 454.46 | 876.29 | 1,491.39 | 1,767.09 | 2,084.28 | 3,123.55 | 4,681.02 | 7,015.08 | 10,512.95 | 15,754.94 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -115.18 | -157 | -609.92 | -649.28 | -421.10 | -881.50 | -1,321.03 | -1,979.73 | -2,966.86 | -4,446.20 |
| EBIT | -138.27 | -207.25 | -773.28 | -829.63 | -618.66 | -1,140.45 | -1,709.10 | -2,561.30 | -3,838.41 | -5,752.33 |
| Tax Rate | -0.05% | 68.76% | 1.00% | 29.30% | 1.43% | 20.09% | 20.09% | 20.09% | 20.09% | 20.09% |
| EBIAT | -138.34 | -64.75 | -765.55 | -586.52 | -609.80 | -911.35 | -1,365.77 | -2,046.77 | -3,067.34 | -4,596.78 |
| Depreciation | 23.08 | 50.25 | 163.36 | 180.35 | 197.56 | 258.95 | 388.07 | 581.57 | 871.55 | 1,306.13 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -86.43 | -102.52 | 16.54 | 58.60 | -217.56 | -187.28 | -280.66 | -420.61 | -630.34 |
| Inventories | - | -22.58 | -30.54 | -12.73 | -13.27 | -90.77 | -104.23 | -156.19 | -234.08 | -350.79 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -2.17 | 9.74 | 32.12 | 7.09 | 43.67 | 59.13 | 88.62 | 132.80 | 199.02 |
| Capital Expenditure | -150.67 | -171.80 | -64.35 | -135.77 | -214.46 | -468.82 | -702.59 | -1,052.92 | -1,577.92 | -2,364.71 |
| UFCF | -265.93 | -297.48 | -789.86 | -506.01 | -574.28 | -1,385.87 | -1,912.66 | -2,866.36 | -4,295.59 | -6,437.47 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -1,278.24 | -1,627.12 | -2,249.07 | -3,108.75 | -4,297.03 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -12,560.21 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.42 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -6,566.22 |
| Terminal Value | -102,277.56 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -68,270.54 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -80,830.75 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 2,204.38 |
| Equity Value | -83,035.13 |
| Shares Outstanding | 176.35 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -470.85 |