Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Exelon Corporation (EXC)

$37.79

-0.09 (-0.24%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -21.93 | 37.79 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	35,985	34,438	33,039	17,938	19,078	16,802.34	14,798.13	13,032.98	11,478.38	10,109.22
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	9,701	11,349	10,471	9,377	7,385	6,135.88	5,403.99	4,759.39	4,191.68	3,691.69
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	3,730	5,569	3,944	2,943	3,852	2,522.74	2,221.83	1,956.80	1,723.39	1,517.82
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	5,971	5,780	6,527	6,434	3,533	3,613.14	3,182.16	2,802.58	2,468.29	2,173.86
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	1,596	587	663	672	407	471.34	415.12	365.60	321.99	283.58
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	5,911	6,222	4,667	2,865	3,561	2,797.81	2,464.08	2,170.16	1,911.30	1,683.31
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	1,685	1,768	1,722	581	755	746.86	657.77	579.31	510.21	449.35
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	3,800	3,560	3,562	2,379	3,382	2,105.94	1,854.74	1,633.51	1,438.66	1,267.05
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-7,594	-7,248	-8,048	-7,981	-7,147	-4,989.05	-4,393.95	-3,869.83	-3,408.23	-3,001.69
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 37.79
Beta	0.614
Diluted Shares Outstanding	987
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	9.70
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.26%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	7.470
Total Debt	40,050
Total Equity	37,298.73
Total Capital	77,348.73
Debt Weighting	51.78
Equity Weighting	48.22
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	35,985	34,438	33,039	17,938	19,078	16,802.34	14,798.13	13,032.98	11,478.38	10,109.22
EBITDA	9,701	11,349	10,471	9,377	7,385	6,135.88	5,403.99	4,759.39	4,191.68	3,691.69
EBIT	3,730	5,569	3,944	2,943	3,852	2,522.74	2,221.83	1,956.80	1,723.39	1,517.82
Tax Rate	9.95%	26.32%	15.86%	-3.14%	9.70%	11.74%	11.74%	11.74%	11.74%	11.74%
EBIAT	3,359.01	4,103.03	3,318.51	3,035.52	3,478.50	2,226.67	1,961.07	1,727.15	1,521.13	1,339.69
Depreciation	5,971	5,780	6,527	6,434	3,533	3,613.14	3,182.16	2,802.58	2,468.29	2,173.86
Accounts Receivable	-	-311	1,555	1,802	-696	763.19	333.73	293.92	258.86	227.98
Inventories	-	-83	46	1,141	-174	8.14	89.09	78.46	69.10	60.86
Accounts Payable	-	-240	2	-1,183	1,003	-1,276.06	-251.20	-221.24	-194.85	-171.61
Capital Expenditure	-7,594	-7,248	-8,048	-7,981	-7,147	-4,989.05	-4,393.95	-3,869.83	-3,408.23	-3,001.69
UFCF	1,736.01	2,001.03	3,400.50	3,248.52	-2.50	346.04	920.89	811.04	714.30	629.10
WACC
PV UFCF						328.65	830.68	694.84	581.21	486.16
SUM PV UFCF										2,921.54

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	5.29
Free cash flow (t + 1)	641.68
Terminal Value	19,503.94
Present Value of Terminal Value	15,072.55

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	17,994.09
Net Debt	39,643
Equity Value	-21,648.91
Shares Outstanding	987
Equity Value Per Share	-21.93