Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE)
$96.88
+0.75 (+0.78%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 11,223 | 12,067 | 5,199 | 8,598 | 11,667 | 13,174.29 | 14,876.31 | 16,798.22 | 18,968.42 | 21,419 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 1,684 | 1,851 | -1,607 | 531 | 824.79 | 334.09 | 377.26 | 425.99 | 481.03 | 543.18 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 683 | 941 | -2,675 | -283 | 824 | -890.51 | -1,005.55 | -1,135.46 | -1,282.16 | -1,447.80 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 1,001 | 910 | 1,068 | 814 | 0.79 | 1,224.60 | 1,382.81 | 1,561.46 | 1,763.19 | 1,990.98 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 2,471 | 3,841 | 3,387 | 4,311 | 4,144 | 5,392.33 | 6,088.98 | 6,875.63 | 7,763.91 | 8,766.95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 2,175 | 2,594 | 821 | 1,264 | 2,118 | 2,358.80 | 2,663.54 | 3,007.65 | 3,396.21 | 3,834.98 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 1,699 | 1,921 | 602 | 1,333 | 1,709 | 1,917.88 | 2,165.66 | 2,445.45 | 2,761.38 | 3,118.13 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -878 | -1,160 | -797 | -673 | -0.66 | -1,069.73 | -1,207.93 | -1,363.99 | -1,540.20 | -1,739.19 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 96.88 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.611 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 161.75 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 34.57 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.77% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.115 |
| Total Debt | 6,552 |
| Total Equity | 15,670.44 |
| Total Capital | 22,222.44 |
| Debt Weighting | 29.48 |
| Equity Weighting | 70.52 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 11,223 | 12,067 | 5,199 | 8,598 | 11,667 | 13,174.29 | 14,876.31 | 16,798.22 | 18,968.42 | 21,419 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 1,684 | 1,851 | -1,607 | 531 | 824.79 | 334.09 | 377.26 | 425.99 | 481.03 | 543.18 |
| EBIT | 683 | 941 | -2,675 | -283 | 824 | -890.51 | -1,005.55 | -1,135.46 | -1,282.16 | -1,447.80 |
| Tax Rate | 16.29% | 27.10% | 17.11% | 139.47% | 34.57% | 46.91% | 46.91% | 46.91% | 46.91% | 46.91% |
| EBIAT | 571.75 | 686.02 | -2,217.42 | 111.71 | 539.12 | -472.79 | -533.87 | -602.85 | -680.73 | -768.68 |
| Depreciation | 1,001 | 910 | 1,068 | 814 | 0.79 | 1,224.60 | 1,382.81 | 1,561.46 | 1,763.19 | 1,990.98 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -419 | 1,773 | -443 | -854 | -240.80 | -304.74 | -344.11 | -388.57 | -438.77 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 222 | -1,319 | 731 | 376 | 208.88 | 247.78 | 279.79 | 315.93 | 356.75 |
| Capital Expenditure | -878 | -1,160 | -797 | -673 | -0.66 | -1,069.73 | -1,207.93 | -1,363.99 | -1,540.20 | -1,739.19 |
| UFCF | 694.75 | 239.02 | -1,492.42 | 540.71 | 61.25 | -349.84 | -415.96 | -469.70 | -530.38 | -598.90 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -321.99 | -352.36 | -366.21 | -380.60 | -395.55 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -1,816.71 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.65 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -610.88 |
| Terminal Value | -9,186.12 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -6,067.13 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -7,883.84 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 2,456 |
| Equity Value | -10,339.84 |
| Shares Outstanding | 161.75 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -63.92 |