Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

EPC Groupe (EXPL.PA)

64.5 €

+0.50 (+0.78%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 507.02 | 64.5 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 310.01329.09322.54345.05338.54346.37354.39362.59370.98379.57
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 26.9524.0121.8326.7825.2926.3226.9327.5528.1928.84
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 16.7115.30130.68-10.247.797.978.158.348.53
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 10.248.718.8326.1035.5318.5318.9619.4019.8520.31
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Total Cash 14.071110.0511.0619.3313.7914.1114.4414.7715.12
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 29.1825.9525.4829.1529.3929.323030.7031.4132.13
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 59.0847.7557.6662.4963.1961.1162.5363.9765.4566.97
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -8.84-14.93-14.98-19.31-16.60-15.61-15.97-16.34-16.72-17.10
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 64.5
Beta 0.234
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1.55
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -43.30
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.17%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 3.954
Total Debt 95.22
Total Equity 99.74
Total Capital 194.97
Debt Weighting 48.84
Equity Weighting 51.16
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 310.01329.09322.54345.05338.54346.37354.39362.59370.98379.57
EBITDA 26.9524.0121.8326.7825.2926.3226.9327.5528.1928.84
EBIT 16.7115.30130.68-10.247.797.978.158.348.53
Tax Rate 24.82%23.20%31.14%-161.42%-43.30%-25.11%-25.11%-25.11%-25.11%-25.11%
EBIAT 12.5611.758.951.79-14.689.749.9710.2010.4410.68
Depreciation 10.248.718.8326.1035.5318.5318.9619.4019.8520.31
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories -3.220.47-3.67-0.240.06-0.68-0.69-0.71-0.73
Accounts Payable --11.339.914.830.70-2.071.411.451.481.51
Capital Expenditure -8.84-14.93-14.98-19.31-16.60-15.61-15.97-16.34-16.72-17.10
UFCF 13.96-2.5713.199.734.7210.6513.6914.0114.3314.67
WACC
PV UFCF 10.2912.7712.6112.4612.31
SUM PV UFCF 60.43

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 3.57
Free cash flow (t + 1) 14.96
Terminal Value 952.81
Present Value of Terminal Value 799.53

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 859.96
Net Debt 75.89
Equity Value 784.07
Shares Outstanding 1.55
Equity Value Per Share 507.02