Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Express, Inc. (EXPR)

$1.4

+0.04 (+2.94%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -227.04 | 1.4 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	2,138.03	2,116.34	2,019.19	1,208.37	1,870.30	1,912.46	1,955.57	1,999.66	2,044.74	2,090.84
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	116.01	106.12	-126.52	-391.05	68.70	-93.76	-95.88	-98.04	-100.25	-102.51
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	25.79	20.26	-211.90	-464.75	1.08	-178.75	-182.78	-186.90	-191.12	-195.42
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	90.22	85.85	85.38	73.70	67.62	84.99	86.90	88.86	90.87	92.91
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	236.22	171.67	207.14	55.87	41.18	138.63	141.76	144.95	148.22	151.56
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	12.08	17.37	10.82	125.90	65.41	60.58	61.94	63.34	64.77	66.23
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	266.27	267.77	220.30	264.36	358.80	294.82	301.46	308.26	315.21	322.31
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	145.59	155.91	126.86	150.23	231.97	173.25	177.16	181.15	185.23	189.41
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-57.43	-49.78	-37.04	-16.85	-34.77	-38.73	-39.61	-40.50	-41.41	-42.35
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 1.4
Beta	1.565
Diluted Shares Outstanding	66.45
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-2.23
After-tax Cost of Debt	1.76%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	11.078
Total Debt	862.33
Total Equity	93.03
Total Capital	955.36
Debt Weighting	90.26
Equity Weighting	9.74
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	2,138.03	2,116.34	2,019.19	1,208.37	1,870.30	1,912.46	1,955.57	1,999.66	2,044.74	2,090.84
EBITDA	116.01	106.12	-126.52	-391.05	68.70	-93.76	-95.88	-98.04	-100.25	-102.51
EBIT	25.79	20.26	-211.90	-464.75	1.08	-178.75	-182.78	-186.90	-191.12	-195.42
Tax Rate	30.92%	52.54%	23.51%	12.12%	-2.23%	23.37%	23.37%	23.37%	23.37%	23.37%
EBIAT	17.82	9.62	-162.08	-408.44	1.10	-136.97	-140.06	-143.22	-146.45	-149.75
Depreciation	90.22	85.85	85.38	73.70	67.62	84.99	86.90	88.86	90.87	92.91
Accounts Receivable	-	-5.29	6.55	-115.07	60.49	4.83	-1.37	-1.40	-1.43	-1.46
Inventories	-	-1.49	47.46	-44.06	-94.43	63.98	-6.65	-6.80	-6.95	-7.11
Accounts Payable	-	10.32	-29.05	23.37	81.74	-58.72	3.91	3.99	4.08	4.18
Capital Expenditure	-57.44	-49.78	-37.04	-16.85	-34.77	-38.73	-39.61	-40.50	-41.41	-42.35
UFCF	50.60	49.24	-88.78	-487.36	81.75	-80.64	-96.87	-99.06	-101.29	-103.57
WACC
PV UFCF						-78.54	-91.90	-91.53	-91.16	-90.79
SUM PV UFCF										-443.91

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	2.67
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-105.64
Terminal Value	-15,767.70
Present Value of Terminal Value	-13,821.36

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-14,265.27
Net Debt	821.15
Equity Value	-15,086.42
Shares Outstanding	66.45
Equity Value Per Share	-227.04