Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Express, Inc. (EXPR)

$1.4

+0.04 (+2.94%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -227.04 | 1.4 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 2,138.032,116.342,019.191,208.371,870.301,912.461,955.571,999.662,044.742,090.84
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 116.01106.12-126.52-391.0568.70-93.76-95.88-98.04-100.25-102.51
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 25.7920.26-211.90-464.751.08-178.75-182.78-186.90-191.12-195.42
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 90.2285.8585.3873.7067.6284.9986.9088.8690.8792.91
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 236.22171.67207.1455.8741.18138.63141.76144.95148.22151.56
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 12.0817.3710.82125.9065.4160.5861.9463.3464.7766.23
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 266.27267.77220.30264.36358.80294.82301.46308.26315.21322.31
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 145.59155.91126.86150.23231.97173.25177.16181.15185.23189.41
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -57.43-49.78-37.04-16.85-34.77-38.73-39.61-40.50-41.41-42.35
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 1.4
Beta 1.565
Diluted Shares Outstanding 66.45
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -2.23
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.76%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.078
Total Debt 862.33
Total Equity 93.03
Total Capital 955.36
Debt Weighting 90.26
Equity Weighting 9.74
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 2,138.032,116.342,019.191,208.371,870.301,912.461,955.571,999.662,044.742,090.84
EBITDA 116.01106.12-126.52-391.0568.70-93.76-95.88-98.04-100.25-102.51
EBIT 25.7920.26-211.90-464.751.08-178.75-182.78-186.90-191.12-195.42
Tax Rate 30.92%52.54%23.51%12.12%-2.23%23.37%23.37%23.37%23.37%23.37%
EBIAT 17.829.62-162.08-408.441.10-136.97-140.06-143.22-146.45-149.75
Depreciation 90.2285.8585.3873.7067.6284.9986.9088.8690.8792.91
Accounts Receivable --5.296.55-115.0760.494.83-1.37-1.40-1.43-1.46
Inventories --1.4947.46-44.06-94.4363.98-6.65-6.80-6.95-7.11
Accounts Payable -10.32-29.0523.3781.74-58.723.913.994.084.18
Capital Expenditure -57.44-49.78-37.04-16.85-34.77-38.73-39.61-40.50-41.41-42.35
UFCF 50.6049.24-88.78-487.3681.75-80.64-96.87-99.06-101.29-103.57
WACC
PV UFCF -78.54-91.90-91.53-91.16-90.79
SUM PV UFCF -443.91

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 2.67
Free cash flow (t + 1) -105.64
Terminal Value -15,767.70
Present Value of Terminal Value -13,821.36

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -14,265.27
Net Debt 821.15
Equity Value -15,086.42
Shares Outstanding 66.45
Equity Value Per Share -227.04