Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Express, Inc. (EXPR)
$1.2595
-0.07 (-5.30%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 2,138.03 | 2,116.34 | 2,019.19 | 1,208.37 | 1,870.30 | 1,912.46 | 1,955.57 | 1,999.66 | 2,044.74 | 2,090.84 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 116.01 | 106.12 | -126.52 | -391.05 | 68.70 | -93.76 | -95.88 | -98.04 | -100.25 | -102.51 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 25.79 | 20.26 | -211.90 | -464.75 | 1.08 | -178.75 | -182.78 | -186.90 | -191.12 | -195.42 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 90.22 | 85.85 | 85.38 | 73.70 | 67.62 | 84.99 | 86.90 | 88.86 | 90.87 | 92.91 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 236.22 | 171.67 | 207.14 | 55.87 | 41.18 | 138.63 | 141.76 | 144.95 | 148.22 | 151.56 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 12.08 | 17.37 | 10.82 | 125.90 | 65.41 | 60.58 | 61.94 | 63.34 | 64.77 | 66.23 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 266.27 | 267.77 | 220.30 | 264.36 | 358.80 | 294.82 | 301.46 | 308.26 | 315.21 | 322.31 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 145.59 | 155.91 | 126.86 | 150.23 | 231.97 | 173.25 | 177.16 | 181.15 | 185.23 | 189.41 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -57.43 | -49.78 | -37.04 | -16.85 | -34.77 | -38.73 | -39.61 | -40.50 | -41.41 | -42.35 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 1.2,595 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.753 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 66.45 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | -2.23 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.76% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 11.916 |
Total Debt | 862.33 |
Total Equity | 83.69 |
Total Capital | 946.02 |
Debt Weighting | 91.15 |
Equity Weighting | 8.85 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 2,138.03 | 2,116.34 | 2,019.19 | 1,208.37 | 1,870.30 | 1,912.46 | 1,955.57 | 1,999.66 | 2,044.74 | 2,090.84 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 116.01 | 106.12 | -126.52 | -391.05 | 68.70 | -93.76 | -95.88 | -98.04 | -100.25 | -102.51 |
EBIT | 25.79 | 20.26 | -211.90 | -464.75 | 1.08 | -178.75 | -182.78 | -186.90 | -191.12 | -195.42 |
Tax Rate | 30.92% | 52.54% | 23.51% | 12.12% | -2.23% | 23.37% | 23.37% | 23.37% | 23.37% | 23.37% |
EBIAT | 17.82 | 9.62 | -162.08 | -408.44 | 1.10 | -136.97 | -140.06 | -143.22 | -146.45 | -149.75 |
Depreciation | 90.22 | 85.85 | 85.38 | 73.70 | 67.62 | 84.99 | 86.90 | 88.86 | 90.87 | 92.91 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -5.29 | 6.55 | -115.07 | 60.49 | 4.83 | -1.37 | -1.40 | -1.43 | -1.46 |
Inventories | - | -1.49 | 47.46 | -44.06 | -94.43 | 63.98 | -6.65 | -6.80 | -6.95 | -7.11 |
Accounts Payable | - | 10.32 | -29.05 | 23.37 | 81.74 | -58.72 | 3.91 | 3.99 | 4.08 | 4.18 |
Capital Expenditure | -57.44 | -49.78 | -37.04 | -16.85 | -34.77 | -38.73 | -39.61 | -40.50 | -41.41 | -42.35 |
UFCF | 50.60 | 49.24 | -88.78 | -487.36 | 81.75 | -80.64 | -96.87 | -99.06 | -101.29 | -103.57 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -78.55 | -91.92 | -91.55 | -91.19 | -90.83 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | -444.04 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 2.66 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -105.64 |
Terminal Value | -16,006.61 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | -14,037.61 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | -14,481.65 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 821.15 |
Equity Value | -15,302.80 |
Shares Outstanding | 66.45 |
Equity Value Per Share | -230.30 |