Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Extra Space Storage Inc. (EXR)

$172.71

+3.88 (+2.30%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 270.10 | 172.71 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,105.011,196.601,308.451,356.211,577.361,725.611,887.782,065.202,259.292,471.62
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 834.55816.71842.40892.331,256.041,220.291,334.971,460.441,597.691,747.84
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 641.25607.66622.54667.891,014.16931.591,019.151,114.931,219.711,334.34
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 193.30209.05219.86224.44241.88288.69315.82345.51377.98413.50
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 55.6857.5065.75109.12790.31252275.69301.60329.94360.95
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 2.853.083.373.494.064.454.865.325.826.37
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 96.09101.46111.38130.01142.28152.87167.23182.95200.15218.96
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -7.82-4.30-7.76-7.09-3.66-8.33-9.12-9.98-10.91-11.94
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 172.71
Beta 0.492
Diluted Shares Outstanding 140.02
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 7.84
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.47%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.127
Total Debt 6,191.10
Total Equity 24,182.17
Total Capital 30,373.27
Debt Weighting 20.38
Equity Weighting 79.62
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,105.011,196.601,308.451,356.211,577.361,725.611,887.782,065.202,259.292,471.62
EBITDA 834.55816.71842.40892.331,256.041,220.291,334.971,460.441,597.691,747.84
EBIT 641.25607.66622.54667.891,014.16931.591,019.151,114.931,219.711,334.34
Tax Rate 7.50%8.99%9.18%9.34%7.84%8.57%8.57%8.57%8.57%8.57%
EBIAT 593.16553.01565.38605.53934.62851.75931.801,019.371,115.171,219.98
Depreciation 193.30209.05219.86224.44241.88288.69315.82345.51377.98413.50
Accounts Receivable --0.24-0.29-0.12-0.57-0.38-0.42-0.46-0.50-0.55
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -5.379.9218.6312.2710.5814.3715.7217.1918.81
Capital Expenditure -7.82-4.30-7.76-7.09-3.66-8.33-9.12-9.98-10.91-11.94
UFCF 778.64762.90787.10841.391,184.541,142.311,252.451,370.161,498.931,639.81
WACC
PV UFCF 1,083.991,127.841,170.841,215.481,261.83
SUM PV UFCF 5,859.98

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.38
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,672.60
Terminal Value 49,485.27
Present Value of Terminal Value 38,078.95

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 43,938.94
Net Debt 6,119.98
Equity Value 37,818.96
Shares Outstanding 140.02
Equity Value Per Share 270.10