Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Extreme Networks, Inc. (EXTR)
$19.28
+0.47 (+2.50%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 983.14 | 995.79 | 948.02 | 1,009.42 | 1,112.32 | 1,148.92 | 1,186.72 | 1,225.76 | 1,266.09 | 1,307.74 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 16.33 | 39.60 | -32.92 | 88.36 | 105.14 | 46.81 | 48.35 | 49.94 | 51.58 | 53.28 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -32.72 | -13.28 | -96.74 | 33.04 | 64.98 | -13.22 | -13.65 | -14.10 | -14.56 | -15.04 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 49.06 | 52.87 | 63.82 | 55.32 | 40.16 | 60.02 | 62 | 64.04 | 66.15 | 68.32 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 121.14 | 169.61 | 193.87 | 246.89 | 194.52 | 210.83 | 217.77 | 224.93 | 232.33 | 239.97 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 212.42 | 174.41 | 122.73 | 156.48 | 184.10 | 193.29 | 199.65 | 206.22 | 213.01 | 220.01 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 63.87 | 63.59 | 62.59 | 32.89 | 49.23 | 62.43 | 64.48 | 66.60 | 68.79 | 71.06 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 75.69 | 65.70 | 48.44 | 60.14 | 84.34 | 75.71 | 78.20 | 80.77 | 83.43 | 86.17 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -40.41 | -22.73 | -15.27 | -17.18 | -15.43 | -25.49 | -26.33 | -27.19 | -28.09 | -29.01 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 19.28 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.081 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 133.49 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 15.18 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.09% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 13.356 |
| Total Debt | 351.13 |
| Total Equity | 2,573.76 |
| Total Capital | 2,924.90 |
| Debt Weighting | 12.00 |
| Equity Weighting | 88.00 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 983.14 | 995.79 | 948.02 | 1,009.42 | 1,112.32 | 1,148.92 | 1,186.72 | 1,225.76 | 1,266.09 | 1,307.74 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 16.33 | 39.60 | -32.92 | 88.36 | 105.14 | 46.81 | 48.35 | 49.94 | 51.58 | 53.28 |
| EBIT | -32.72 | -13.28 | -96.74 | 33.04 | 64.98 | -13.22 | -13.65 | -14.10 | -14.56 | -15.04 |
| Tax Rate | -0.31% | 0.08% | -5.27% | 80.99% | 15.18% | 18.13% | 18.13% | 18.13% | 18.13% | 18.13% |
| EBIAT | -32.83 | -13.27 | -101.84 | 6.28 | 55.12 | -10.82 | -11.17 | -11.54 | -11.92 | -12.31 |
| Depreciation | 49.06 | 52.87 | 63.82 | 55.32 | 40.16 | 60.02 | 62 | 64.04 | 66.15 | 68.32 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 38.01 | 51.69 | -33.75 | -27.62 | -9.20 | -6.36 | -6.57 | -6.78 | -7.01 |
| Inventories | - | 0.28 | 1 | 29.70 | -16.35 | -13.20 | -2.05 | -2.12 | -2.19 | -2.26 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -9.98 | -17.26 | 11.70 | 24.20 | -8.63 | 2.49 | 2.57 | 2.66 | 2.74 |
| Capital Expenditure | -40.41 | -22.73 | -15.27 | -17.18 | -15.43 | -25.49 | -26.33 | -27.19 | -28.09 | -29.01 |
| UFCF | -24.18 | 45.18 | -17.87 | 52.08 | 60.08 | -7.31 | 18.57 | 19.19 | 19.82 | 20.47 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -6.52 | 14.78 | 13.61 | 12.54 | 11.55 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 45.96 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 12.12 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 20.88 |
| Terminal Value | 206.31 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 116.44 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 162.40 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 156.61 |
| Equity Value | 5.79 |
| Shares Outstanding | 133.49 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 0.04 |