Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Farmmi, Inc. (FAMI)
$0.4468
+0.01 (+1.15%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 29.82 | 30.84 | 30.17 | 39.29 | 99.21 | 144.85 | 211.48 | 308.76 | 450.79 | 658.16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 3.41 | 3.08 | 1.21 | 2.46 | 2.61 | 9.95 | 14.53 | 21.21 | 30.96 | 45.21 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 3.39 | 3.04 | 1.13 | 2.39 | 2.44 | 9.70 | 14.17 | 20.68 | 30.20 | 44.09 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.17 | 0.25 | 0.36 | 0.52 | 0.77 | 1.12 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 4.93 | 0.14 | 0.55 | 59.25 | 76.32 | 71.41 | 104.26 | 152.22 | 222.24 | 324.47 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 8.60 | 13.83 | 10.76 | 24.47 | 19.94 | 55.54 | 81.10 | 118.40 | 172.86 | 252.38 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 1.81 | 1.46 | 0.58 | 1.37 | 0.72 | 4.91 | 7.17 | 10.46 | 15.28 | 22.30 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 0.34 | 0.29 | 0.41 | 0.06 | 0.20 | 1.10 | 1.61 | 2.36 | 3.44 | 5.02 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -0.06 | -0.09 | -0.25 | -0.18 | -0.44 | -0.65 | -0.95 | -1.38 | -2.02 | -2.95 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 0.4,468 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.844 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 11.68 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -5.62 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.95% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 7.767 |
| Total Debt | 4.55 |
| Total Equity | 5.22 |
| Total Capital | 9.77 |
| Debt Weighting | 46.59 |
| Equity Weighting | 53.41 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 29.82 | 30.84 | 30.17 | 39.29 | 99.21 | 144.85 | 211.48 | 308.76 | 450.79 | 658.16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 3.41 | 3.08 | 1.21 | 2.46 | 2.61 | 9.95 | 14.53 | 21.21 | 30.96 | 45.21 |
| EBIT | 3.39 | 3.04 | 1.13 | 2.39 | 2.44 | 9.70 | 14.17 | 20.68 | 30.20 | 44.09 |
| Tax Rate | 0.50% | -11.21% | 2.97% | 3.08% | -5.62% | -2.06% | -2.06% | -2.06% | -2.06% | -2.06% |
| EBIAT | 3.37 | 3.38 | 1.10 | 2.32 | 2.58 | 9.90 | 14.46 | 21.11 | 30.82 | 45 |
| Depreciation | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.17 | 0.25 | 0.36 | 0.52 | 0.77 | 1.12 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -5.23 | 3.07 | -13.72 | 4.53 | -35.61 | -25.55 | -37.30 | -54.46 | -79.52 |
| Inventories | - | 0.35 | 0.88 | -0.79 | 0.66 | -4.19 | -2.26 | -3.30 | -4.81 | -7.03 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -0.05 | 0.12 | -0.36 | 0.14 | 0.91 | 0.51 | 0.74 | 1.08 | 1.58 |
| Capital Expenditure | -0.06 | -0.09 | -0.25 | -0.18 | -0 | -0.65 | -0.95 | -1.38 | -2.02 | -2.95 |
| UFCF | 3.33 | -1.60 | 5 | -12.65 | 7.63 | -29.39 | -13.43 | -19.61 | -28.63 | -41.79 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -27.85 | -12.06 | -16.69 | -23.09 | -31.95 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -111.64 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 5.52 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -42.63 |
| Terminal Value | -1,211.09 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -925.77 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -1,037.40 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -36.62 |
| Equity Value | -1,000.79 |
| Shares Outstanding | 11.68 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -85.69 |