Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Fastenal Company (FAST)

$49.17

-2.20 (-4.28%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 22.44 | 49.17 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4,390.504,965.105,333.705,647.306,010.906,504.237,038.067,615.698,240.738,917.08
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,009.601,137.801,206.301,304.801,388.201,492.421,614.911,747.451,890.872,046.06
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 882.20999.601,057.601,142.401,217.501,307.851,415.191,531.341,657.021,793.02
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 127.40138.20148.70162.40170.70184.57199.72216.11233.85253.04
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 116.90167.20174.90245.70236.20228.81247.59267.91289.90313.69
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 607.80714.30741.80769.40900.20920.19995.721,077.441,165.871,261.55
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,092.901,278.701,366.401,337.501,523.601,629.901,763.671,908.422,065.052,234.54
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 147.50193.60192.80207233.10239.58259.24280.52303.54328.45
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -119.90-176.30-246.40-168.10-156.60-214.42-232.02-251.06-271.67-293.97
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 49.17
Beta 1.274
Diluted Shares Outstanding 577.30
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.41
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.16%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.222
Total Debt 636.80
Total Equity 28,385.84
Total Capital 29,022.64
Debt Weighting 2.19
Equity Weighting 97.81
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4,390.504,965.105,333.705,647.306,010.906,504.237,038.067,615.698,240.738,917.08
EBITDA 1,009.601,137.801,206.301,304.801,388.201,492.421,614.911,747.451,890.872,046.06
EBIT 882.20999.601,057.601,142.401,217.501,307.851,415.191,531.341,657.021,793.02
Tax Rate 33.73%23.82%24.22%24.15%23.41%25.87%25.87%25.87%25.87%25.87%
EBIAT 584.63761.50801.43866.46932.43969.541,049.111,135.211,228.381,329.20
Depreciation 127.40138.20148.70162.40170.70184.57199.72216.11233.85253.04
Accounts Receivable --106.50-27.50-27.60-130.80-19.99-75.52-81.72-88.43-95.69
Inventories --185.80-87.7028.90-186.10-106.30-133.77-144.75-156.63-169.49
Accounts Payable -46.10-0.8014.2026.106.4819.6621.2823.0224.91
Capital Expenditure -119.90-176.30-246.40-168.10-156.60-214.42-232.02-251.06-271.67-293.97
UFCF 592.13477.20587.73876.26655.73819.86827.18895.07968.531,048.02
WACC
PV UFCF 751.89695.71690.39685.12679.89
SUM PV UFCF 3,503.01

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.04
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,068.98
Terminal Value 15,184.33
Present Value of Terminal Value 9,850.69

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 13,353.69
Net Debt 400.60
Equity Value 12,953.09
Shares Outstanding 577.30
Equity Value Per Share 22.44