Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
FAT Brands Inc. (FATBW)
$3.09
+0.07 (+0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 18.37 | 22.51 | 18.12 | 118.88 | 407.22 | 1,223.44 | 3,675.60 | 11,042.73 | 33,176.02 | 99,671.73 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 3.06 | 6.24 | -2.99 | 7.17 | 33.05 | 102.82 | 308.91 | 928.08 | 2,788.26 | 8,376.86 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 2.70 | 5.46 | -4.16 | -1.40 | 6.03 | 39.82 | 119.64 | 359.44 | 1,079.89 | 3,244.34 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 0.36 | 0.79 | 1.17 | 8.57 | 27.01 | 63 | 189.27 | 568.64 | 1,708.37 | 5,132.52 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 0.65 | 0.02 | 3.94 | 56.66 | 28.67 | 196.07 | 589.07 | 1,769.76 | 5,316.95 | 15,973.87 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 1.84 | 4.41 | 4.42 | 19.79 | 23.88 | 187.18 | 562.36 | 1,689.51 | 5,075.85 | 15,249.53 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | - | 5.13 | 13.70 | 30.22 | 6.92 | 383.88 | 1,153.29 | 3,464.88 | 10,409.64 | 31,273.99 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 4.41 | 7.18 | 8.62 | 27.53 | 18.33 | 321.07 | 964.59 | 2,897.95 | 8,706.41 | 26,156.94 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -0.15 | -0.05 | -0.46 | -10.42 | -23.17 | -44.05 | -132.33 | -397.57 | -1,194.43 | -3,588.46 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 3.09 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.000 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 16.48 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | -17.52 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 8.48% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 4.255 |
Total Debt | 1,118.68 |
Total Equity | 50.91 |
Total Capital | 1,169.59 |
Debt Weighting | 95.65 |
Equity Weighting | 4.35 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 18.37 | 22.51 | 18.12 | 118.88 | 407.22 | 1,223.44 | 3,675.60 | 11,042.73 | 33,176.02 | 99,671.73 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 3.06 | 6.24 | -2.99 | 7.17 | 33.05 | 102.82 | 308.91 | 928.08 | 2,788.26 | 8,376.86 |
EBIT | 2.70 | 5.46 | -4.16 | -1.40 | 6.03 | 39.82 | 119.64 | 359.44 | 1,079.89 | 3,244.34 |
Tax Rate | 13.27% | -100.39% | 19.89% | 10.07% | -17.52% | -14.94% | -14.94% | -14.94% | -14.94% | -14.94% |
EBIAT | 2.34 | 10.93 | -3.33 | -1.26 | 7.09 | 45.77 | 137.51 | 413.13 | 1,241.19 | 3,728.96 |
Depreciation | 0.36 | 0.79 | 1.17 | 8.57 | 27.01 | 63 | 189.27 | 568.64 | 1,708.37 | 5,132.52 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -2.56 | -0.01 | -15.37 | -4.09 | -163.30 | -375.18 | -1,127.15 | -3,386.34 | -10,173.68 |
Inventories | - | - | -8.57 | -16.52 | 23.29 | -376.95 | -769.42 | -2,311.58 | -6,944.76 | -20,864.36 |
Accounts Payable | - | 2.77 | 1.44 | 18.90 | -9.20 | 302.74 | 643.52 | 1,933.36 | 5,808.46 | 17,450.53 |
Capital Expenditure | -0.15 | -0.04 | -0.46 | -10.42 | -23.17 | -44.05 | -132.33 | -397.57 | -1,194.43 | -3,588.46 |
UFCF | 2.55 | 11.88 | -9.76 | -16.10 | 20.93 | -172.79 | -306.61 | -921.17 | -2,767.50 | -8,314.50 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -159.55 | -261.42 | -725.20 | -2,011.75 | -5,580.77 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | -8,738.68 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 8.30 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -8,480.79 |
Terminal Value | -134,615.68 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | -90,355.24 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | -99,093.92 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 1,090.01 |
Equity Value | -100,183.93 |
Shares Outstanding | 16.48 |
Equity Value Per Share | -6,080.56 |