Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

The First Bancshares, Inc. (FBMS)

$26.14

+0.10 (+0.38%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 153.69 | 26.14 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 102.34145.92183.24189.88210.74254.34306.97370.48447.14539.65
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 46.4188.48102.09114.56113.44140.32169.36204.40246.69297.73
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 42.1183.1789.73100.76101.27126.27152.40183.93221.99267.92
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 4.305.3112.3513.7912.1714.0516.9620.4724.7029.82
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 651.33933.951,584.742,671.541,402.422,143.472,586.973,122.233,768.244,547.92
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 10.7814.8026.3423.2627.7230.7537.1244.7954.0665.25
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1.522.512.131.713.323.484.205.076.127.39
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -4.06-7.89-4.40-7.12-15.52-11.64-14.05-16.96-20.47-24.71
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 26.14
Beta 0.897
Diluted Shares Outstanding 21.17
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 20.04
After-tax Cost of Debt 6.34%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.841
Total Debt 284.86
Total Equity 553.30
Total Capital 838.15
Debt Weighting 33.99
Equity Weighting 66.01
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 102.34145.92183.24189.88210.74254.34306.97370.48447.14539.65
EBITDA 46.4188.48102.09114.56113.44140.32169.36204.40246.69297.73
EBIT 42.1183.1789.73100.76101.27126.27152.40183.93221.99267.92
Tax Rate 21.44%22.50%16.75%20.86%20.04%20.32%20.32%20.32%20.32%20.32%
EBIAT 33.0864.4674.7079.7480.97100.61121.43146.56176.88213.48
Depreciation 4.305.3112.3513.7912.1714.0516.9620.4724.7029.82
Accounts Receivable --4.02-11.543.09-4.47-3.03-6.36-7.68-9.27-11.19
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -0.99-0.37-0.421.610.160.720.871.051.27
Capital Expenditure -4.06-7.89-4.40-7.13-15.52-11.64-14.05-16.96-20.47-24.71
UFCF 33.3258.8470.7489.0774.77100.15118.70143.26172.90208.67
WACC
PV UFCF 93.31103.04115.86130.29146.51
SUM PV UFCF 589.01

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.33
Free cash flow (t + 1) 212.84
Terminal Value 3,993.32
Present Value of Terminal Value 2,803.68

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 3,392.69
Net Debt 139.54
Equity Value 3,253.15
Shares Outstanding 21.17
Equity Value Per Share 153.69