Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
The First Bancshares, Inc. (FBMS)
$26.14
+0.10 (+0.38%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 102.34 | 145.92 | 183.24 | 189.88 | 210.74 | 254.34 | 306.97 | 370.48 | 447.14 | 539.65 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 46.41 | 88.48 | 102.09 | 114.56 | 113.44 | 140.32 | 169.36 | 204.40 | 246.69 | 297.73 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 42.11 | 83.17 | 89.73 | 100.76 | 101.27 | 126.27 | 152.40 | 183.93 | 221.99 | 267.92 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 4.30 | 5.31 | 12.35 | 13.79 | 12.17 | 14.05 | 16.96 | 20.47 | 24.70 | 29.82 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 651.33 | 933.95 | 1,584.74 | 2,671.54 | 1,402.42 | 2,143.47 | 2,586.97 | 3,122.23 | 3,768.24 | 4,547.92 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 10.78 | 14.80 | 26.34 | 23.26 | 27.72 | 30.75 | 37.12 | 44.79 | 54.06 | 65.25 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 1.52 | 2.51 | 2.13 | 1.71 | 3.32 | 3.48 | 4.20 | 5.07 | 6.12 | 7.39 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -4.06 | -7.89 | -4.40 | -7.12 | -15.52 | -11.64 | -14.05 | -16.96 | -20.47 | -24.71 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 26.14 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.897 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 21.17 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 20.04 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 6.34% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 7.841 |
| Total Debt | 284.86 |
| Total Equity | 553.30 |
| Total Capital | 838.15 |
| Debt Weighting | 33.99 |
| Equity Weighting | 66.01 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 102.34 | 145.92 | 183.24 | 189.88 | 210.74 | 254.34 | 306.97 | 370.48 | 447.14 | 539.65 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 46.41 | 88.48 | 102.09 | 114.56 | 113.44 | 140.32 | 169.36 | 204.40 | 246.69 | 297.73 |
| EBIT | 42.11 | 83.17 | 89.73 | 100.76 | 101.27 | 126.27 | 152.40 | 183.93 | 221.99 | 267.92 |
| Tax Rate | 21.44% | 22.50% | 16.75% | 20.86% | 20.04% | 20.32% | 20.32% | 20.32% | 20.32% | 20.32% |
| EBIAT | 33.08 | 64.46 | 74.70 | 79.74 | 80.97 | 100.61 | 121.43 | 146.56 | 176.88 | 213.48 |
| Depreciation | 4.30 | 5.31 | 12.35 | 13.79 | 12.17 | 14.05 | 16.96 | 20.47 | 24.70 | 29.82 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -4.02 | -11.54 | 3.09 | -4.47 | -3.03 | -6.36 | -7.68 | -9.27 | -11.19 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 0.99 | -0.37 | -0.42 | 1.61 | 0.16 | 0.72 | 0.87 | 1.05 | 1.27 |
| Capital Expenditure | -4.06 | -7.89 | -4.40 | -7.13 | -15.52 | -11.64 | -14.05 | -16.96 | -20.47 | -24.71 |
| UFCF | 33.32 | 58.84 | 70.74 | 89.07 | 74.77 | 100.15 | 118.70 | 143.26 | 172.90 | 208.67 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 93.31 | 103.04 | 115.86 | 130.29 | 146.51 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 589.01 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.33 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 212.84 |
| Terminal Value | 3,993.32 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 2,803.68 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 3,392.69 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 139.54 |
| Equity Value | 3,253.15 |
| Shares Outstanding | 21.17 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 153.69 |