Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

The First Bancshares, Inc. (FBMS)

$26.63

+0.06 (+0.23%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 3.23 | 26.63 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 105.45148.75186.10193.633.873.603.353.122.902.70
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 46.4159.6667.1685.22113.4422.3020.7519.3117.9716.72
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 42.1154.3554.8171.43101.2719.8818.5017.2116.0214.90
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 4.305.3112.3513.7912.172.422.252.101.951.81
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 651.33933.951,584.742,671.551,402.42286.07266.20247.72230.51214.51
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 10.7814.8026.3423.2627.725.495.114.764.434.12
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1.522.512.131.713.320.660.610.570.530.49
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -4.06-7.89-4.40-7.12-15.52-3-2.79-2.60-2.42-2.25
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 26.63
Beta 0.896
Diluted Shares Outstanding 21.17
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 20.04
After-tax Cost of Debt 6.34%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.855
Total Debt 284.86
Total Equity 563.67
Total Capital 848.52
Debt Weighting 33.57
Equity Weighting 66.43
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 105.45148.75186.10193.633.873.603.353.122.902.70
EBITDA 46.4159.6667.1685.22113.4422.3020.7519.3117.9716.72
EBIT 42.1154.3554.8171.43101.2719.8818.5017.2116.0214.90
Tax Rate 21.44%22.50%16.75%20.86%20.04%20.32%20.32%20.32%20.32%20.32%
EBIAT 33.0842.1245.6356.5380.9715.8414.7413.7112.7611.88
Depreciation 4.305.3112.3513.7912.172.422.252.101.951.81
Accounts Receivable --4.02-11.543.09-4.4722.230.380.350.330.31
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -0.99-0.37-0.421.61-2.67-0.05-0.04-0.04-0.04
Capital Expenditure -4.06-7.89-4.40-7.13-15.52-3-2.79-2.60-2.42-2.25
UFCF 33.3236.5141.6765.8674.7734.8214.5413.5312.5911.71
WACC
PV UFCF 32.2412.4610.739.257.97
SUM PV UFCF 72.65

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.01
Free cash flow (t + 1) 11.95
Terminal Value 198.79
Present Value of Terminal Value 135.23

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 207.88
Net Debt 139.54
Equity Value 68.34
Shares Outstanding 21.17
Equity Value Per Share 3.23