Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
The First Bancshares, Inc. (FBMS)
$26.63
+0.06 (+0.23%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 105.45 | 148.75 | 186.10 | 193.63 | 3.87 | 3.60 | 3.35 | 3.12 | 2.90 | 2.70 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 46.41 | 59.66 | 67.16 | 85.22 | 113.44 | 22.30 | 20.75 | 19.31 | 17.97 | 16.72 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 42.11 | 54.35 | 54.81 | 71.43 | 101.27 | 19.88 | 18.50 | 17.21 | 16.02 | 14.90 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 4.30 | 5.31 | 12.35 | 13.79 | 12.17 | 2.42 | 2.25 | 2.10 | 1.95 | 1.81 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 651.33 | 933.95 | 1,584.74 | 2,671.55 | 1,402.42 | 286.07 | 266.20 | 247.72 | 230.51 | 214.51 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 10.78 | 14.80 | 26.34 | 23.26 | 27.72 | 5.49 | 5.11 | 4.76 | 4.43 | 4.12 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 1.52 | 2.51 | 2.13 | 1.71 | 3.32 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.49 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -4.06 | -7.89 | -4.40 | -7.12 | -15.52 | -3 | -2.79 | -2.60 | -2.42 | -2.25 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 26.63 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.896 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 21.17 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 20.04 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 6.34% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.855 |
| Total Debt | 284.86 |
| Total Equity | 563.67 |
| Total Capital | 848.52 |
| Debt Weighting | 33.57 |
| Equity Weighting | 66.43 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 105.45 | 148.75 | 186.10 | 193.63 | 3.87 | 3.60 | 3.35 | 3.12 | 2.90 | 2.70 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 46.41 | 59.66 | 67.16 | 85.22 | 113.44 | 22.30 | 20.75 | 19.31 | 17.97 | 16.72 |
| EBIT | 42.11 | 54.35 | 54.81 | 71.43 | 101.27 | 19.88 | 18.50 | 17.21 | 16.02 | 14.90 |
| Tax Rate | 21.44% | 22.50% | 16.75% | 20.86% | 20.04% | 20.32% | 20.32% | 20.32% | 20.32% | 20.32% |
| EBIAT | 33.08 | 42.12 | 45.63 | 56.53 | 80.97 | 15.84 | 14.74 | 13.71 | 12.76 | 11.88 |
| Depreciation | 4.30 | 5.31 | 12.35 | 13.79 | 12.17 | 2.42 | 2.25 | 2.10 | 1.95 | 1.81 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -4.02 | -11.54 | 3.09 | -4.47 | 22.23 | 0.38 | 0.35 | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 0.99 | -0.37 | -0.42 | 1.61 | -2.67 | -0.05 | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.04 |
| Capital Expenditure | -4.06 | -7.89 | -4.40 | -7.13 | -15.52 | -3 | -2.79 | -2.60 | -2.42 | -2.25 |
| UFCF | 33.32 | 36.51 | 41.67 | 65.86 | 74.77 | 34.82 | 14.54 | 13.53 | 12.59 | 11.71 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 32.24 | 12.46 | 10.73 | 9.25 | 7.97 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 72.65 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.01 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 11.95 |
| Terminal Value | 198.79 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 135.23 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 207.88 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 139.54 |
| Equity Value | 68.34 |
| Shares Outstanding | 21.17 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 3.23 |