Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
First Bancorp (FBNC)
$33.55
+0.69 (+2.10%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 269.26 | 274.79 | 299.47 | 320.01 | 392.84 | 432.76 | 476.74 | 525.19 | 578.57 | 637.36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 150.09 | 121.13 | 107.09 | 123.85 | 205.01 | 196.02 | 215.94 | 237.88 | 262.06 | 288.69 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 137.26 | 107.24 | 93.49 | 109.92 | 189.68 | 176.44 | 194.37 | 214.12 | 235.88 | 259.86 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 12.84 | 13.89 | 13.60 | 13.93 | 15.33 | 19.58 | 21.57 | 23.76 | 26.17 | 28.83 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 964.25 | 1,053.25 | 1,820.42 | 3,091.58 | 270.32 | 2,063.57 | 2,273.29 | 2,504.32 | 2,758.82 | 3,039.19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 16 | 16.65 | 20.27 | 25.90 | 29.71 | 29.80 | 32.83 | 36.16 | 39.84 | 43.88 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 1.98 | 2.15 | 0.90 | 0.61 | 2.74 | 2.34 | 2.58 | 2.84 | 3.13 | 3.45 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -10.72 | -3.53 | -12.36 | -9.40 | -5.29 | -11.84 | -13.04 | -14.37 | -15.83 | -17.44 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 33.55 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.061 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 35.67 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 20.67 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.16% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.246 |
| Total Debt | 306.90 |
| Total Equity | 1,196.89 |
| Total Capital | 1,503.79 |
| Debt Weighting | 20.41 |
| Equity Weighting | 79.59 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 269.26 | 274.79 | 299.47 | 320.01 | 392.84 | 432.76 | 476.74 | 525.19 | 578.57 | 637.36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 150.09 | 121.13 | 107.09 | 123.85 | 205.01 | 196.02 | 215.94 | 237.88 | 262.06 | 288.69 |
| EBIT | 137.26 | 107.24 | 93.49 | 109.92 | 189.68 | 176.44 | 194.37 | 214.12 | 235.88 | 259.86 |
| Tax Rate | 21.32% | 20.84% | 21.00% | 20.51% | 20.67% | 20.87% | 20.87% | 20.87% | 20.87% | 20.87% |
| EBIAT | 108 | 84.90 | 73.86 | 87.38 | 150.47 | 139.62 | 153.81 | 169.45 | 186.67 | 205.64 |
| Depreciation | 12.84 | 13.89 | 13.60 | 13.93 | 15.33 | 19.58 | 21.57 | 23.76 | 26.17 | 28.83 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -0.64 | -3.62 | -5.62 | -3.81 | -0.09 | -3.03 | -3.34 | -3.67 | -4.05 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 0.18 | -1.25 | -0.30 | 2.13 | -0.40 | 0.24 | 0.26 | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| Capital Expenditure | -10.72 | -3.53 | -12.36 | -9.40 | -5.29 | -11.84 | -13.04 | -14.37 | -15.83 | -17.44 |
| UFCF | 110.11 | 94.79 | 70.22 | 85.98 | 158.83 | 146.88 | 159.55 | 175.76 | 193.62 | 213.30 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 135.73 | 136.26 | 138.71 | 141.22 | 143.77 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 695.69 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.21 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 217.57 |
| Terminal Value | 3,503.48 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 2,361.36 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 3,057.05 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 36.58 |
| Equity Value | 3,020.47 |
| Shares Outstanding | 35.67 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 84.67 |