Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
1st Constitution Bancorp (FCCY)
$27.79
+1.02 (+3.81%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Revenue | 42.59 | 44.41 | 51.12 | 55.57 | 73.15 | 84.07 | 96.62 | 111.04 | 127.61 | 146.67 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 20.48 | 19.68 | 25.80 | 32.87 | 37.39 | 42.56 | 48.91 | 56.21 | 64.61 | 74.25 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 19.07 | 18.30 | 24.41 | 31.43 | 35.34 | 40.11 | 46.10 | 52.98 | 60.89 | 69.98 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 1.41 | 1.38 | 1.39 | 1.44 | 2.05 | 2.45 | 2.81 | 3.23 | 3.71 | 4.27 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Total Cash | 148.49 | 124.21 | 149.07 | 177.22 | 166.79 | 246.63 | 283.45 | 325.76 | 374.39 | 430.28 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 3.09 | 3.48 | 3.86 | 4.95 | 5.27 | 6.52 | 7.49 | 8.61 | 9.89 | 11.37 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 0.87 | 0.80 | 1.23 | 1.59 | 0.85 | 1.73 | 1.99 | 2.28 | 2.62 | 3.01 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -0.46 | -0.85 | -0.65 | -0.16 | -0.42 | -0.86 | -0.99 | -1.14 | -1.30 | -1.50 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 27.79 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.625 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 10.26 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 26.76 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 17.03% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 7.301 |
| Total Debt | 45.77 |
| Total Equity | 285.15 |
| Total Capital | 330.92 |
| Debt Weighting | 13.83 |
| Equity Weighting | 86.17 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Revenue | 42.59 | 44.41 | 51.12 | 55.57 | 73.15 | 84.07 | 96.62 | 111.04 | 127.61 | 146.67 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 20.48 | 19.68 | 25.80 | 32.87 | 37.39 | 42.56 | 48.91 | 56.21 | 64.61 | 74.25 |
| EBIT | 19.07 | 18.30 | 24.41 | 31.43 | 35.34 | 40.11 | 46.10 | 52.98 | 60.89 | 69.98 |
| Tax Rate | 33.24% | 45.87% | 26.38% | 26.99% | 26.76% | 31.85% | 31.85% | 31.85% | 31.85% | 31.85% |
| EBIAT | 12.73 | 9.90 | 17.97 | 22.95 | 25.88 | 27.34 | 31.42 | 36.11 | 41.50 | 47.69 |
| Depreciation | 1.41 | 1.38 | 1.39 | 1.44 | 2.05 | 2.45 | 2.81 | 3.23 | 3.71 | 4.27 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -0.38 | -0.38 | -1.08 | -0.33 | -1.24 | -0.97 | -1.12 | -1.28 | -1.48 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | -0.06 | 0.42 | 0.36 | -0.74 | 0.88 | 0.26 | 0.30 | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| Capital Expenditure | -0.46 | -0.85 | -0.65 | -0.16 | -0.42 | -0.86 | -0.99 | -1.14 | -1.30 | -1.50 |
| UFCF | 13.69 | 9.99 | 18.75 | 23.51 | 26.44 | 28.56 | 32.53 | 37.38 | 42.96 | 49.38 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 26.28 | 27.55 | 29.15 | 30.83 | 32.61 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 146.43 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.65 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 50.37 |
| Terminal Value | 757.38 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 500.23 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 646.65 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 23.77 |
| Equity Value | 622.88 |
| Shares Outstanding | 10.26 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 60.70 |