Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
First Commonwealth Financial Corpor... (FCF)
$13.59
+0.69 (+5.35%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 340.86 | 355.35 | 362.75 | 385.30 | 410.93 | 430.66 | 451.33 | 472.99 | 495.70 | 519.50 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 180.85 | 196.62 | 134.79 | 199.56 | 188.47 | 209.48 | 219.53 | 230.07 | 241.12 | 252.69 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 172.81 | 186.25 | 123.14 | 188.11 | 177.92 | 197.39 | 206.87 | 216.80 | 227.21 | 238.11 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 8.05 | 10.37 | 11.65 | 11.44 | 10.55 | 12.08 | 12.66 | 13.27 | 13.91 | 14.58 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 1,008.19 | 1,024.15 | 1,187.80 | 1,436.75 | 916.90 | 1,298.39 | 1,360.72 | 1,426.04 | 1,494.50 | 1,566.24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -9.60 | -17.38 | -7.61 | -10.64 | -11.21 | -13.17 | -13.81 | -14.47 | -15.16 | -15.89 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 13.59 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.945 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 93.89 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 19.98 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.04% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.150 |
| Total Debt | 466.22 |
| Total Equity | 1,275.93 |
| Total Capital | 1,742.15 |
| Debt Weighting | 26.76 |
| Equity Weighting | 73.24 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 340.86 | 355.35 | 362.75 | 385.30 | 410.93 | 430.66 | 451.33 | 472.99 | 495.70 | 519.50 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 180.85 | 196.62 | 134.79 | 199.56 | 188.47 | 209.48 | 219.53 | 230.07 | 241.12 | 252.69 |
| EBIT | 172.81 | 186.25 | 123.14 | 188.11 | 177.92 | 197.39 | 206.87 | 216.80 | 227.21 | 238.11 |
| Tax Rate | 19.04% | 19.50% | 18.58% | 20.00% | 19.98% | 19.42% | 19.42% | 19.42% | 19.42% | 19.42% |
| EBIAT | 139.91 | 149.93 | 100.27 | 150.49 | 142.37 | 159.06 | 166.70 | 174.70 | 183.09 | 191.88 |
| Depreciation | 8.05 | 10.37 | 11.65 | 11.44 | 10.55 | 12.08 | 12.66 | 13.27 | 13.91 | 14.58 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Capital Expenditure | -9.60 | -17.38 | -7.62 | -10.64 | -11.21 | -13.17 | -13.81 | -14.47 | -15.16 | -15.89 |
| UFCF | 138.36 | 142.92 | 104.30 | 151.30 | 141.72 | 157.97 | 165.56 | 173.50 | 181.83 | 190.56 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 147.94 | 145.20 | 142.51 | 139.87 | 137.27 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 712.79 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.78 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 194.37 |
| Terminal Value | 4,066.38 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 2,929.26 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 3,642.05 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 311.98 |
| Equity Value | 3,330.07 |
| Shares Outstanding | 93.89 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 35.47 |