Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
First Commonwealth Financial Corpor... (FCF)
$12.17
+0.17 (+1.42%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 340.86 | 355.35 | 362.75 | 385.30 | 410.93 | 430.66 | 451.33 | 472.99 | 495.70 | 519.50 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 180.85 | 134.19 | 93.89 | 176.31 | 188.47 | 179.44 | 188.05 | 197.08 | 206.54 | 216.45 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 172.81 | 123.82 | 82.24 | 164.87 | 177.92 | 167.35 | 175.39 | 183.81 | 192.63 | 201.88 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 8.05 | 10.37 | 11.65 | 11.44 | 10.55 | 12.08 | 12.66 | 13.27 | 13.91 | 14.58 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 1,008.19 | 1,040.91 | 1,200.03 | 1,449.59 | 916.90 | 1,308.23 | 1,371.03 | 1,436.85 | 1,505.82 | 1,578.11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -9.60 | -17.38 | -7.61 | -10.64 | -11.21 | -13.17 | -13.81 | -14.47 | -15.16 | -15.89 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 12.17 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.945 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 93.89 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 19.98 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.56% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.057 |
| Total Debt | 553.92 |
| Total Equity | 1,142.61 |
| Total Capital | 1,696.53 |
| Debt Weighting | 32.65 |
| Equity Weighting | 67.35 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 340.86 | 355.35 | 362.75 | 385.30 | 410.93 | 430.66 | 451.33 | 472.99 | 495.70 | 519.50 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 180.85 | 134.19 | 93.89 | 176.31 | 188.47 | 179.44 | 188.05 | 197.08 | 206.54 | 216.45 |
| EBIT | 172.81 | 123.82 | 82.24 | 164.87 | 177.92 | 167.35 | 175.39 | 183.81 | 192.63 | 201.88 |
| Tax Rate | 20.22% | 20.56% | 19.87% | 20.00% | 19.98% | 20.13% | 20.13% | 20.13% | 20.13% | 20.13% |
| EBIAT | 137.86 | 98.36 | 65.89 | 131.90 | 142.37 | 133.67 | 140.09 | 146.81 | 153.86 | 161.25 |
| Depreciation | 8.05 | 10.37 | 11.65 | 11.44 | 10.55 | 12.08 | 12.66 | 13.27 | 13.91 | 14.58 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Capital Expenditure | -9.60 | -17.38 | -7.62 | -10.64 | -11.21 | -13.17 | -13.81 | -14.47 | -15.16 | -15.89 |
| UFCF | 136.31 | 91.35 | 69.93 | 132.70 | 141.72 | 132.58 | 138.94 | 145.61 | 152.60 | 159.93 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 123.98 | 121.50 | 119.06 | 116.68 | 114.35 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 595.57 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.94 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 163.13 |
| Terminal Value | 3,302.21 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 2,361.04 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 2,956.61 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 399.67 |
| Equity Value | 2,556.93 |
| Shares Outstanding | 93.89 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 27.23 |