Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

FedEx Corporation (FDX)

$216.19

-4.12 (-1.87%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -45.41 | 216.19 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	65,450	69,693	69,217	83,959	93,512	102,506.97	112,367.18	123,175.84	135,024.19	148,012.24
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	8,006	4,596	5,956	11,260	9,555	10,468.21	11,475.15	12,578.95	13,788.93	15,115.29
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	4,911	1,243	2,341	7,467	5,585	5,645.10	6,188.11	6,783.35	7,435.84	8,151.10
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	3,095	3,353	3,615	3,793	3,970	4,823.10	5,287.04	5,795.60	6,353.09	6,964.19
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	3,265	2,319	4,881	7,087	6,897	6,393.21	7,008.18	7,682.30	8,421.26	9,231.31
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	8,481	9,116	10,102	12,069	11,863	13,878.18	15,213.13	16,676.49	18,280.61	20,039.03
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	525	553	572	587	637	779.53	854.52	936.72	1,026.82	1,125.59
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	2,977	3,030	3,269	3,841	4,030	4,613.52	5,057.29	5,543.76	6,077.02	6,661.57
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-5,663	-5,490	-5,868	-5,884	-6,763	-8,046.37	-8,820.35	-9,668.79	-10,598.83	-11,618.34
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 216.19
Beta	1.322
Diluted Shares Outstanding	266.99
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	21.85
After-tax Cost of Debt	1.45%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.729
Total Debt	37,194
Total Equity	57,721.07
Total Capital	94,915.07
Debt Weighting	39.19
Equity Weighting	60.81
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	65,450	69,693	69,217	83,959	93,512	102,506.97	112,367.18	123,175.84	135,024.19	148,012.24
EBITDA	8,006	4,596	5,956	11,260	9,555	10,468.21	11,475.15	12,578.95	13,788.93	15,115.29
EBIT	4,911	1,243	2,341	7,467	5,585	5,645.10	6,188.11	6,783.35	7,435.84	8,151.10
Tax Rate	-5.03%	17.56%	22.95%	21.62%	21.85%	15.79%	15.79%	15.79%	15.79%	15.79%
EBIAT	5,158.07	1,024.76	1,803.79	5,852.54	4,364.42	4,753.74	5,211.01	5,712.26	6,261.72	6,864.04
Depreciation	3,095	3,353	3,615	3,793	3,970	4,823.10	5,287.04	5,795.60	6,353.09	6,964.19
Accounts Receivable	-	-635	-986	-1,967	206	-2,015.18	-1,334.95	-1,463.36	-1,604.12	-1,758.42
Inventories	-	-28	-19	-15	-50	-142.53	-74.98	-82.20	-90.10	-98.77
Accounts Payable	-	53	239	572	189	583.52	443.78	486.46	533.26	584.55
Capital Expenditure	-5,663	-5,490	-5,868	-5,884	-6,763	-8,046.37	-8,820.35	-9,668.79	-10,598.83	-11,618.34
UFCF	2,590.07	-1,722.24	-1,215.21	2,351.54	1,916.42	-43.72	711.54	779.98	855.01	937.25
WACC
PV UFCF						-41.06	627.57	646.07	665.12	684.72
SUM PV UFCF										2,582.42

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	6.48
Free cash flow (t + 1)	956
Terminal Value	21,339.21
Present Value of Terminal Value	15,589.71

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	18,172.13
Net Debt	30,297
Equity Value	-12,124.87
Shares Outstanding	266.99
Equity Value Per Share	-45.41