Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

FedEx Corporation (FDX)

$216.19

-4.12 (-1.87%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -45.41 | 216.19 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 65,45069,69369,21783,95993,512102,506.97112,367.18123,175.84135,024.19148,012.24
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 8,0064,5965,95611,2609,55510,468.2111,475.1512,578.9513,788.9315,115.29
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 4,9111,2432,3417,4675,5855,645.106,188.116,783.357,435.848,151.10
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3,0953,3533,6153,7933,9704,823.105,287.045,795.606,353.096,964.19
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 3,2652,3194,8817,0876,8976,393.217,008.187,682.308,421.269,231.31
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 8,4819,11610,10212,06911,86313,878.1815,213.1316,676.4918,280.6120,039.03
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 525553572587637779.53854.52936.721,026.821,125.59
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2,9773,0303,2693,8414,0304,613.525,057.295,543.766,077.026,661.57
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -5,663-5,490-5,868-5,884-6,763-8,046.37-8,820.35-9,668.79-10,598.83-11,618.34
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 216.19
Beta 1.322
Diluted Shares Outstanding 266.99
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 21.85
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.45%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.729
Total Debt 37,194
Total Equity 57,721.07
Total Capital 94,915.07
Debt Weighting 39.19
Equity Weighting 60.81
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 65,45069,69369,21783,95993,512102,506.97112,367.18123,175.84135,024.19148,012.24
EBITDA 8,0064,5965,95611,2609,55510,468.2111,475.1512,578.9513,788.9315,115.29
EBIT 4,9111,2432,3417,4675,5855,645.106,188.116,783.357,435.848,151.10
Tax Rate -5.03%17.56%22.95%21.62%21.85%15.79%15.79%15.79%15.79%15.79%
EBIAT 5,158.071,024.761,803.795,852.544,364.424,753.745,211.015,712.266,261.726,864.04
Depreciation 3,0953,3533,6153,7933,9704,823.105,287.045,795.606,353.096,964.19
Accounts Receivable --635-986-1,967206-2,015.18-1,334.95-1,463.36-1,604.12-1,758.42
Inventories --28-19-15-50-142.53-74.98-82.20-90.10-98.77
Accounts Payable -53239572189583.52443.78486.46533.26584.55
Capital Expenditure -5,663-5,490-5,868-5,884-6,763-8,046.37-8,820.35-9,668.79-10,598.83-11,618.34
UFCF 2,590.07-1,722.24-1,215.212,351.541,916.42-43.72711.54779.98855.01937.25
WACC
PV UFCF -41.06627.57646.07665.12684.72
SUM PV UFCF 2,582.42

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.48
Free cash flow (t + 1) 956
Terminal Value 21,339.21
Present Value of Terminal Value 15,589.71

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 18,172.13
Net Debt 30,297
Equity Value -12,124.87
Shares Outstanding 266.99
Equity Value Per Share -45.41