Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
FedEx Corporation (FDX)
$216.19
-4.12 (-1.87%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 65,450 | 69,693 | 69,217 | 83,959 | 93,512 | 102,506.97 | 112,367.18 | 123,175.84 | 135,024.19 | 148,012.24 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 8,006 | 4,596 | 5,956 | 11,260 | 9,555 | 10,468.21 | 11,475.15 | 12,578.95 | 13,788.93 | 15,115.29 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 4,911 | 1,243 | 2,341 | 7,467 | 5,585 | 5,645.10 | 6,188.11 | 6,783.35 | 7,435.84 | 8,151.10 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 3,095 | 3,353 | 3,615 | 3,793 | 3,970 | 4,823.10 | 5,287.04 | 5,795.60 | 6,353.09 | 6,964.19 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 3,265 | 2,319 | 4,881 | 7,087 | 6,897 | 6,393.21 | 7,008.18 | 7,682.30 | 8,421.26 | 9,231.31 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 8,481 | 9,116 | 10,102 | 12,069 | 11,863 | 13,878.18 | 15,213.13 | 16,676.49 | 18,280.61 | 20,039.03 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 525 | 553 | 572 | 587 | 637 | 779.53 | 854.52 | 936.72 | 1,026.82 | 1,125.59 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 2,977 | 3,030 | 3,269 | 3,841 | 4,030 | 4,613.52 | 5,057.29 | 5,543.76 | 6,077.02 | 6,661.57 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -5,663 | -5,490 | -5,868 | -5,884 | -6,763 | -8,046.37 | -8,820.35 | -9,668.79 | -10,598.83 | -11,618.34 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 216.19 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.322 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 266.99 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 21.85 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.45% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 9.729 |
Total Debt | 37,194 |
Total Equity | 57,721.07 |
Total Capital | 94,915.07 |
Debt Weighting | 39.19 |
Equity Weighting | 60.81 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 65,450 | 69,693 | 69,217 | 83,959 | 93,512 | 102,506.97 | 112,367.18 | 123,175.84 | 135,024.19 | 148,012.24 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 8,006 | 4,596 | 5,956 | 11,260 | 9,555 | 10,468.21 | 11,475.15 | 12,578.95 | 13,788.93 | 15,115.29 |
EBIT | 4,911 | 1,243 | 2,341 | 7,467 | 5,585 | 5,645.10 | 6,188.11 | 6,783.35 | 7,435.84 | 8,151.10 |
Tax Rate | -5.03% | 17.56% | 22.95% | 21.62% | 21.85% | 15.79% | 15.79% | 15.79% | 15.79% | 15.79% |
EBIAT | 5,158.07 | 1,024.76 | 1,803.79 | 5,852.54 | 4,364.42 | 4,753.74 | 5,211.01 | 5,712.26 | 6,261.72 | 6,864.04 |
Depreciation | 3,095 | 3,353 | 3,615 | 3,793 | 3,970 | 4,823.10 | 5,287.04 | 5,795.60 | 6,353.09 | 6,964.19 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -635 | -986 | -1,967 | 206 | -2,015.18 | -1,334.95 | -1,463.36 | -1,604.12 | -1,758.42 |
Inventories | - | -28 | -19 | -15 | -50 | -142.53 | -74.98 | -82.20 | -90.10 | -98.77 |
Accounts Payable | - | 53 | 239 | 572 | 189 | 583.52 | 443.78 | 486.46 | 533.26 | 584.55 |
Capital Expenditure | -5,663 | -5,490 | -5,868 | -5,884 | -6,763 | -8,046.37 | -8,820.35 | -9,668.79 | -10,598.83 | -11,618.34 |
UFCF | 2,590.07 | -1,722.24 | -1,215.21 | 2,351.54 | 1,916.42 | -43.72 | 711.54 | 779.98 | 855.01 | 937.25 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -41.06 | 627.57 | 646.07 | 665.12 | 684.72 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 2,582.42 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 6.48 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 956 |
Terminal Value | 21,339.21 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 15,589.71 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 18,172.13 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 30,297 |
Equity Value | -12,124.87 |
Shares Outstanding | 266.99 |
Equity Value Per Share | -45.41 |