Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Five Below, Inc. (FIVE)

$205.97

+4.62 (+2.29%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 0.12 | 205.97 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 1,559.561,846.731,962.142,848.353,076.313,674.894,389.955,244.146,264.547,483.48
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 237.88280.83224.15464.71455.64536.61641.02765.75914.751,092.74
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 196.43225.85154.80379.88350.02422.09504.23602.34719.54859.55
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 41.4554.9869.3584.83105.62114.51136.80163.41195.21233.19
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 337.16261.72409.71342.11399.17600.17716.95856.451,023.101,222.18
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----8.9010.6312.7015.1718.1221.65
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 243.64324.03281.27455.10527.72592.65707.97845.721,010.281,206.86
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 103.69130.24138.62196.46221.12256.15305.99365.53436.66521.62
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -113.72-212.30-200.19-288.17-251.95-347.63-415.27-496.07-592.59-707.90
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 205.97
Beta 1.152
Diluted Shares Outstanding 55.75
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 24.75
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.13%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.931
Total Debt 1,496.75
Total Equity 11,481.86
Total Capital 12,978.61
Debt Weighting 11.53
Equity Weighting 88.47
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 1,559.561,846.731,962.142,848.353,076.313,674.894,389.955,244.146,264.547,483.48
EBITDA 237.88280.83224.15464.71455.64536.61641.02765.75914.751,092.74
EBIT 196.43225.85154.80379.88350.02422.09504.23602.34719.54859.55
Tax Rate 21.98%20.99%19.41%23.97%24.75%22.22%22.22%22.22%22.22%22.22%
EBIAT 153.25178.44124.76288.83263.40328.31392.19468.50559.66668.56
Depreciation 41.4554.9869.3584.83105.62114.51136.80163.41195.21233.19
Accounts Receivable ------1.73-2.07-2.47-2.95-3.53
Inventories --80.3942.76-173.84-72.62-64.93-115.32-137.76-164.56-196.58
Accounts Payable -26.558.3857.8424.6635.0349.8459.5471.1284.96
Capital Expenditure -113.72-212.30-200.19-288.17-251.95-347.63-415.27-496.07-592.59-707.90
UFCF 80.98-32.7245.06-30.5169.1163.5746.1855.1665.8978.72
WACC
PV UFCF 58.9039.6543.8948.5853.77
SUM PV UFCF 244.78

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.92
Free cash flow (t + 1) 80.29
Terminal Value 1,356.25
Present Value of Terminal Value 926.47

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,171.25
Net Debt 1,164.43
Equity Value 6.82
Shares Outstanding 55.75
Equity Value Per Share 0.12