Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Five Below, Inc. (FIVE)

$205.97

+4.62 (+2.29%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 0.12 | 205.97 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	1,559.56	1,846.73	1,962.14	2,848.35	3,076.31	3,674.89	4,389.95	5,244.14	6,264.54	7,483.48
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	237.88	280.83	224.15	464.71	455.64	536.61	641.02	765.75	914.75	1,092.74
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	196.43	225.85	154.80	379.88	350.02	422.09	504.23	602.34	719.54	859.55
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	41.45	54.98	69.35	84.83	105.62	114.51	136.80	163.41	195.21	233.19
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Total Cash	337.16	261.72	409.71	342.11	399.17	600.17	716.95	856.45	1,023.10	1,222.18
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	-	-	-	-	8.90	10.63	12.70	15.17	18.12	21.65
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	243.64	324.03	281.27	455.10	527.72	592.65	707.97	845.72	1,010.28	1,206.86
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	103.69	130.24	138.62	196.46	221.12	256.15	305.99	365.53	436.66	521.62
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-113.72	-212.30	-200.19	-288.17	-251.95	-347.63	-415.27	-496.07	-592.59	-707.90
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 205.97
Beta	1.152
Diluted Shares Outstanding	55.75
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	24.75
After-tax Cost of Debt	0.13%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	8.931
Total Debt	1,496.75
Total Equity	11,481.86
Total Capital	12,978.61
Debt Weighting	11.53
Equity Weighting	88.47
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	1,559.56	1,846.73	1,962.14	2,848.35	3,076.31	3,674.89	4,389.95	5,244.14	6,264.54	7,483.48
EBITDA	237.88	280.83	224.15	464.71	455.64	536.61	641.02	765.75	914.75	1,092.74
EBIT	196.43	225.85	154.80	379.88	350.02	422.09	504.23	602.34	719.54	859.55
Tax Rate	21.98%	20.99%	19.41%	23.97%	24.75%	22.22%	22.22%	22.22%	22.22%	22.22%
EBIAT	153.25	178.44	124.76	288.83	263.40	328.31	392.19	468.50	559.66	668.56
Depreciation	41.45	54.98	69.35	84.83	105.62	114.51	136.80	163.41	195.21	233.19
Accounts Receivable	-	-	-	-	-	-1.73	-2.07	-2.47	-2.95	-3.53
Inventories	-	-80.39	42.76	-173.84	-72.62	-64.93	-115.32	-137.76	-164.56	-196.58
Accounts Payable	-	26.55	8.38	57.84	24.66	35.03	49.84	59.54	71.12	84.96
Capital Expenditure	-113.72	-212.30	-200.19	-288.17	-251.95	-347.63	-415.27	-496.07	-592.59	-707.90
UFCF	80.98	-32.72	45.06	-30.51	69.11	63.57	46.18	55.16	65.89	78.72
WACC
PV UFCF						58.90	39.65	43.89	48.58	53.77
SUM PV UFCF										244.78

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.92
Free cash flow (t + 1)	80.29
Terminal Value	1,356.25
Present Value of Terminal Value	926.47

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	1,171.25
Net Debt	1,164.43
Equity Value	6.82
Shares Outstanding	55.75
Equity Value Per Share	0.12