Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Five Below, Inc. (FIVE)
$205.97
+4.62 (+2.29%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 1,559.56 | 1,846.73 | 1,962.14 | 2,848.35 | 3,076.31 | 3,674.89 | 4,389.95 | 5,244.14 | 6,264.54 | 7,483.48 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 237.88 | 280.83 | 224.15 | 464.71 | 455.64 | 536.61 | 641.02 | 765.75 | 914.75 | 1,092.74 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 196.43 | 225.85 | 154.80 | 379.88 | 350.02 | 422.09 | 504.23 | 602.34 | 719.54 | 859.55 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 41.45 | 54.98 | 69.35 | 84.83 | 105.62 | 114.51 | 136.80 | 163.41 | 195.21 | 233.19 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Total Cash | 337.16 | 261.72 | 409.71 | 342.11 | 399.17 | 600.17 | 716.95 | 856.45 | 1,023.10 | 1,222.18 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | 8.90 | 10.63 | 12.70 | 15.17 | 18.12 | 21.65 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 243.64 | 324.03 | 281.27 | 455.10 | 527.72 | 592.65 | 707.97 | 845.72 | 1,010.28 | 1,206.86 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 103.69 | 130.24 | 138.62 | 196.46 | 221.12 | 256.15 | 305.99 | 365.53 | 436.66 | 521.62 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -113.72 | -212.30 | -200.19 | -288.17 | -251.95 | -347.63 | -415.27 | -496.07 | -592.59 | -707.90 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 205.97 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.152 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 55.75 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 24.75 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.13% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 8.931 |
Total Debt | 1,496.75 |
Total Equity | 11,481.86 |
Total Capital | 12,978.61 |
Debt Weighting | 11.53 |
Equity Weighting | 88.47 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 1,559.56 | 1,846.73 | 1,962.14 | 2,848.35 | 3,076.31 | 3,674.89 | 4,389.95 | 5,244.14 | 6,264.54 | 7,483.48 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 237.88 | 280.83 | 224.15 | 464.71 | 455.64 | 536.61 | 641.02 | 765.75 | 914.75 | 1,092.74 |
EBIT | 196.43 | 225.85 | 154.80 | 379.88 | 350.02 | 422.09 | 504.23 | 602.34 | 719.54 | 859.55 |
Tax Rate | 21.98% | 20.99% | 19.41% | 23.97% | 24.75% | 22.22% | 22.22% | 22.22% | 22.22% | 22.22% |
EBIAT | 153.25 | 178.44 | 124.76 | 288.83 | 263.40 | 328.31 | 392.19 | 468.50 | 559.66 | 668.56 |
Depreciation | 41.45 | 54.98 | 69.35 | 84.83 | 105.62 | 114.51 | 136.80 | 163.41 | 195.21 | 233.19 |
Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | -1.73 | -2.07 | -2.47 | -2.95 | -3.53 |
Inventories | - | -80.39 | 42.76 | -173.84 | -72.62 | -64.93 | -115.32 | -137.76 | -164.56 | -196.58 |
Accounts Payable | - | 26.55 | 8.38 | 57.84 | 24.66 | 35.03 | 49.84 | 59.54 | 71.12 | 84.96 |
Capital Expenditure | -113.72 | -212.30 | -200.19 | -288.17 | -251.95 | -347.63 | -415.27 | -496.07 | -592.59 | -707.90 |
UFCF | 80.98 | -32.72 | 45.06 | -30.51 | 69.11 | 63.57 | 46.18 | 55.16 | 65.89 | 78.72 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 58.90 | 39.65 | 43.89 | 48.58 | 53.77 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 244.78 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 7.92 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 80.29 |
Terminal Value | 1,356.25 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 926.47 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 1,171.25 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 1,164.43 |
Equity Value | 6.82 |
Shares Outstanding | 55.75 |
Equity Value Per Share | 0.12 |