Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Full House Resorts, Inc. (FLL)
$7.26
-0.14 (-1.89%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 161.27 | 163.88 | 165.43 | 125.59 | 180.16 | 190.04 | 200.46 | 211.45 | 223.05 | 235.28 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 13.40 | 13.87 | 12.13 | 16.27 | -11.52 | 11.66 | 12.30 | 12.97 | 13.68 | 14.43 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 4.80 | 5.48 | 3.80 | 8.60 | -21.24 | 1.40 | 1.47 | 1.55 | 1.64 | 1.73 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 8.60 | 8.40 | 8.33 | 7.67 | 9.73 | 10.26 | 10.82 | 11.42 | 12.04 | 12.70 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 19.91 | 20.63 | 28.85 | 37.70 | 88.72 | 46.23 | 48.77 | 51.44 | 54.26 | 57.24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 1.76 | 2.04 | 2.21 | 4.90 | 4.69 | 3.87 | 4.08 | 4.30 | 4.54 | 4.79 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 1.69 | 1.43 | 2.29 | 1.51 | 1.66 | 2.06 | 2.18 | 2.30 | 2.42 | 2.55 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 5.18 | 5.92 | 5.22 | 4.19 | 8.41 | 6.83 | 7.21 | 7.60 | 8.02 | 8.46 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -11.07 | -17.05 | -8.09 | -2.64 | -10.93 | -11.53 | -12.16 | -12.82 | -13.53 | -14.27 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 7.26 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.850 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 36.64 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 3.58 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | -7.56% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.623 |
| Total Debt | 301.62 |
| Total Equity | 265.98 |
| Total Capital | 567.60 |
| Debt Weighting | 53.14 |
| Equity Weighting | 46.86 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 161.27 | 163.88 | 165.43 | 125.59 | 180.16 | 190.04 | 200.46 | 211.45 | 223.05 | 235.28 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 13.40 | 13.87 | 12.13 | 16.27 | -11.52 | 11.66 | 12.30 | 12.97 | 13.68 | 14.43 |
| EBIT | 4.80 | 5.48 | 3.80 | 8.60 | -21.24 | 1.40 | 1.47 | 1.55 | 1.64 | 1.73 |
| Tax Rate | 2.90% | -12.22% | -1.39% | -167.27% | 3.58% | -34.88% | -34.88% | -34.88% | -34.88% | -34.88% |
| EBIAT | 4.66 | 6.14 | 3.85 | 22.99 | -20.48 | 1.88 | 1.99 | 2.09 | 2.21 | 2.33 |
| Depreciation | 8.60 | 8.40 | 8.33 | 7.67 | 9.73 | 10.26 | 10.82 | 11.42 | 12.04 | 12.70 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -0.28 | -0.17 | -2.70 | 0.21 | 0.83 | -0.21 | -0.22 | -0.24 | -0.25 |
| Inventories | - | 0.27 | -0.87 | 0.78 | -0.15 | -0.40 | -0.11 | -0.12 | -0.13 | -0.13 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 0.73 | -0.70 | -1.02 | 4.22 | -1.58 | 0.37 | 0.40 | 0.42 | 0.44 |
| Capital Expenditure | -11.07 | -17.05 | -8.09 | -2.64 | -10.93 | -11.53 | -12.16 | -12.82 | -13.53 | -14.27 |
| UFCF | 2.19 | -1.78 | 2.36 | 25.08 | -17.40 | -0.54 | 0.70 | 0.74 | 0.78 | 0.82 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -0.53 | 0.68 | 0.71 | 0.74 | 0.77 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 2.36 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 1.43 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 0.84 |
| Terminal Value | -147.26 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -137.17 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -134.81 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 212.90 |
| Equity Value | -347.70 |
| Shares Outstanding | 36.64 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -9.49 |