Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Fluent, Inc. (FLNT)
$0.649
-0.01 (-1.67%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Revenue | 281.68 | 310.72 | 329.25 | 361.13 | 392.38 | 426.33 | 463.21 | 503.29 | 546.83 | 594.14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 19.16 | 23.68 | 5.54 | -106.38 | -13.10 | -14.23 | -15.46 | -16.80 | -18.25 | -19.83 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 5.22 | 8.38 | -7.63 | -119.59 | -30.29 | -32.92 | -35.76 | -38.86 | -42.22 | -45.87 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 13.94 | 15.30 | 13.17 | 13.21 | 17.20 | 18.69 | 20.30 | 22.06 | 23.97 | 26.04 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Total Cash | 18.68 | 21.09 | 34.47 | 25.55 | 26.57 | 32.17 | 34.95 | 37.98 | 41.26 | 44.83 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 60.91 | 62.67 | 70.23 | 63.16 | 56.76 | 81.07 | 88.08 | 95.70 | 103.99 | 112.98 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 21.57 | 7.69 | 16.13 | 6.19 | 12.93 | 17.09 | 18.57 | 20.17 | 21.92 | 23.82 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -4.71 | -2.85 | -2.99 | -0.02 | -3.44 | -3.73 | -4.06 | -4.41 | -4.79 | -5.20 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 0.649 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.359 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 81.41 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -1.46 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 5.00% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 14.920 |
| Total Debt | 44.99 |
| Total Equity | 52.84 |
| Total Capital | 97.83 |
| Debt Weighting | 45.99 |
| Equity Weighting | 54.01 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Revenue | 281.68 | 310.72 | 329.25 | 361.13 | 392.38 | 426.33 | 463.21 | 503.29 | 546.83 | 594.14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 19.16 | 23.68 | 5.54 | -106.38 | -13.10 | -14.23 | -15.46 | -16.80 | -18.25 | -19.83 |
| EBIT | 5.22 | 8.38 | -7.63 | -119.59 | -30.29 | -32.92 | -35.76 | -38.86 | -42.22 | -45.87 |
| Tax Rate | -4.42% | 27.14% | -2.51% | -1.46% | 4.69% | 4.69% | 4.69% | 4.69% | 4.69% | 4.69% |
| EBIAT | 5.45 | 6.11 | -7.82 | -121.34 | -28.87 | -31.37 | -34.09 | -37.04 | -40.24 | -43.72 |
| Depreciation | 13.94 | 15.30 | 13.17 | 13.21 | 17.20 | 18.69 | 20.30 | 22.06 | 23.97 | 26.04 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -1.75 | -7.56 | 7.06 | 6.40 | -24.31 | -7.01 | -7.62 | -8.28 | -9 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | -13.88 | 8.44 | -9.94 | 6.74 | 4.16 | 1.48 | 1.61 | 1.75 | 1.90 |
| Capital Expenditure | -4.71 | -2.85 | -2.99 | -0.02 | -3.44 | -3.73 | -4.06 | -4.41 | -4.79 | -5.20 |
| UFCF | 14.68 | 2.92 | 3.24 | -111.02 | -1.97 | -36.57 | -23.38 | -25.40 | -27.60 | -29.98 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -1.97 | -33.14 | -19.19 | -18.90 | -18.60 | -18.32 | ||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -108.15 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 10.36 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -30.58 |
| Terminal Value | -365.83 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -223.47 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -331.61 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 18.43 |
| Equity Value | -350.04 |
| Shares Outstanding | 81.41 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -4.30 |