Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO)

$26.69

-0.01 (-0.04%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 40.05 | 26.69 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Projected	2021 Projected	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	3,920.73	3,951.85	4,123.97	4,230.15	4,339.06	4,450.77	4,565.36	4,682.90	4,803.47	4,927.13	5,053.99
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	332.57	376.97	395.16	389.22	399.24	409.52	420.06	430.88	441.97	453.35	465.02
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	185.85	232.85	250.93	235.72	241.79	248.01	254.40	260.95	267.66	274.56	281.62
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	146.72	144.12	144.23	153.50	157.46	161.51	165.67	169.93	174.31	178.80	183.40
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Projected	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	5.13	25.31	11.04	14.65	15.03	15.41	15.81	16.22	16.64	17.06	17.50
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	290.18	291.40	299.53	310.75	318.75	326.96	335.37	344.01	352.86	361.95	371.27
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	172.37	187.70	194.51	195.47	200.51	205.67	210.96	216.39	221.97	227.68	233.54
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	181.39	242.08	233.01	231.28	237.24	243.34	249.61	256.04	262.63	269.39	276.32
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-75.23	-99.42	-103.68	-97.98	-100.51	-103.09	-105.75	-108.47	-111.26	-114.13	-117.06
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 26.69
Beta	0.395
Diluted Shares Outstanding	213.03
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	23.85
After-tax Cost of Debt	1.99%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	5.382
Total Debt	1,208.29
Total Equity	5,685.85
Total Capital	6,894.14
Debt Weighting	17.53
Equity Weighting	82.47
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Projected	2021 Projected	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	3,920.73	3,951.85	4,123.97	4,230.15	4,339.06	4,450.77	4,565.36	4,682.90	4,803.47	4,927.13	5,053.99
EBITDA	332.57	376.97	395.16	389.22	399.24	409.52	420.06	430.88	441.97	453.35	465.02
EBIT	185.85	232.85	250.93	235.72	241.79	248.01	254.40	260.95	267.66	274.56	281.62
Tax Rate	-0.55%	20.29%	22.42%	18.02%	24.11%	23.85%	18.02%	18.02%	18.02%	18.02%	18.02%
EBIAT	186.88	185.61	194.68	193.23	183.49	188.86	208.55	213.92	219.42	225.07	230.87
Depreciation	146.72	144.12	144.23	153.50	157.46	161.51	165.67	169.93	174.31	178.80	183.40
Accounts Receivable	-	-1.22	-8.13	-11.22	-8	-8.21	-8.42	-8.63	-8.86	-9.08	-9.32
Inventories	-	-15.32	-6.82	-0.96	-5.03	-5.16	-5.30	-5.43	-5.57	-5.71	-5.86
Accounts Payable	-	60.70	-9.07	-1.73	5.95	6.11	6.27	6.43	6.59	6.76	6.94
Capital Expenditure	-75.23	-99.42	-103.69	-97.98	-97.93	-210.85	-105.75	-108.47	-111.26	-114.13	-117.06
UFCF	258.37	274.46	211.20	234.85	233.36	240.01	261.02	267.74	274.63	281.70	288.96
WACC
PV UFCF				246.10	233.36	229.04	237.70	232.68	227.76	222.94	218.23
SUM PV UFCF											1,193.88

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	4.79
Free cash flow (t + 1)	294.74
Terminal Value	10,564.01
Present Value of Terminal Value	8,360.45

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	9,554.33
Net Debt	1,022.42
Equity Value	8,531.91
Shares Outstanding	213.03
Equity Value Per Share	40.05