Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO)

$26.69

-0.01 (-0.04%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 40.05 | 26.69 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 3,920.733,951.854,123.974,230.154,339.064,450.774,565.364,682.904,803.474,927.135,053.99
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 332.57376.97395.16389.22399.24409.52420.06430.88441.97453.35465.02
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 185.85232.85250.93235.72241.79248.01254.40260.95267.66274.56281.62
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 146.72144.12144.23153.50157.46161.51165.67169.93174.31178.80183.40
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 5.1325.3111.0414.6515.0315.4115.8116.2216.6417.0617.50
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 290.18291.40299.53310.75318.75326.96335.37344.01352.86361.95371.27
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 172.37187.70194.51195.47200.51205.67210.96216.39221.97227.68233.54
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 181.39242.08233.01231.28237.24243.34249.61256.04262.63269.39276.32
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -75.23-99.42-103.68-97.98-100.51-103.09-105.75-108.47-111.26-114.13-117.06
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 26.69
Beta 0.395
Diluted Shares Outstanding 213.03
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.85
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.99%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 5.382
Total Debt 1,208.29
Total Equity 5,685.85
Total Capital 6,894.14
Debt Weighting 17.53
Equity Weighting 82.47
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 3,920.733,951.854,123.974,230.154,339.064,450.774,565.364,682.904,803.474,927.135,053.99
EBITDA 332.57376.97395.16389.22399.24409.52420.06430.88441.97453.35465.02
EBIT 185.85232.85250.93235.72241.79248.01254.40260.95267.66274.56281.62
Tax Rate -0.55%20.29%22.42%18.02%24.11%23.85%18.02%18.02%18.02%18.02%18.02%
EBIAT 186.88185.61194.68193.23183.49188.86208.55213.92219.42225.07230.87
Depreciation 146.72144.12144.23153.50157.46161.51165.67169.93174.31178.80183.40
Accounts Receivable --1.22-8.13-11.22-8-8.21-8.42-8.63-8.86-9.08-9.32
Inventories --15.32-6.82-0.96-5.03-5.16-5.30-5.43-5.57-5.71-5.86
Accounts Payable -60.70-9.07-1.735.956.116.276.436.596.766.94
Capital Expenditure -75.23-99.42-103.69-97.98-97.93-210.85-105.75-108.47-111.26-114.13-117.06
UFCF 258.37274.46211.20234.85233.36240.01261.02267.74274.63281.70288.96
WACC
PV UFCF 246.10233.36229.04237.70232.68227.76222.94218.23
SUM PV UFCF 1,193.88

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.79
Free cash flow (t + 1) 294.74
Terminal Value 10,564.01
Present Value of Terminal Value 8,360.45

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 9,554.33
Net Debt 1,022.42
Equity Value 8,531.91
Shares Outstanding 213.03
Equity Value Per Share 40.05