Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
SPX FLOW, Inc. (FLOW)
$86.49
+0.18 (+0.21%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 1,951.50 | 2,090.10 | 1,506.60 | 1,350.60 | 1,529 | 1,460.35 | 1,394.77 | 1,332.15 | 1,272.33 | 1,215.20 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 185.90 | 228.30 | 8.70 | 83.10 | 183.40 | 114.42 | 109.28 | 104.37 | 99.68 | 95.21 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 124.70 | 169.60 | -29.60 | 42 | 136.20 | 71.72 | 68.50 | 65.43 | 62.49 | 59.68 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 61.20 | 58.70 | 38.30 | 41.10 | 47.20 | 42.69 | 40.77 | 38.94 | 37.19 | 35.52 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Total Cash | 263.70 | 213.30 | 299.20 | 441.50 | 313.90 | 282.71 | 270.02 | 257.89 | 246.31 | 235.25 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 439.10 | 445 | 270.40 | 257 | 271.50 | 287.76 | 274.84 | 262.50 | 250.71 | 239.45 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 293.90 | 304.80 | 208.10 | 199.30 | 242.80 | 216.40 | 206.68 | 197.40 | 188.54 | 180.07 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 219.40 | 203.70 | 142.60 | 149.10 | 173.80 | 154.39 | 147.46 | 140.83 | 134.51 | 128.47 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -19.40 | -25.50 | -28.50 | -22.40 | -32.60 | -23.06 | -22.03 | -21.04 | -20.09 | -19.19 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 86.49 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.604 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 41.96 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 44.37 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.11% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 10.395 |
Total Debt | 422.10 |
Total Equity | 3,629.03 |
Total Capital | 4,051.13 |
Debt Weighting | 10.42 |
Equity Weighting | 89.58 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 1,951.50 | 2,090.10 | 1,506.60 | 1,350.60 | 1,529 | 1,460.35 | 1,394.77 | 1,332.15 | 1,272.33 | 1,215.20 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 185.90 | 228.30 | 8.70 | 83.10 | 183.40 | 114.42 | 109.28 | 104.37 | 99.68 | 95.21 |
EBIT | 124.70 | 169.60 | -29.60 | 42 | 136.20 | 71.72 | 68.50 | 65.43 | 62.49 | 59.68 |
Tax Rate | 19.86% | 62.00% | 211.23% | 88.08% | 44.37% | 85.11% | 85.11% | 85.11% | 85.11% | 85.11% |
EBIAT | 99.93 | 64.44 | 32.92 | 5.01 | 75.77 | 10.68 | 10.20 | 9.74 | 9.31 | 8.89 |
Depreciation | 61.20 | 58.70 | 38.30 | 41.10 | 47.20 | 42.69 | 40.77 | 38.94 | 37.19 | 35.52 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -5.90 | 174.60 | 13.40 | -14.50 | -16.26 | 12.92 | 12.34 | 11.79 | 11.26 |
Inventories | - | -10.90 | 96.70 | 8.80 | -43.50 | 26.40 | 9.72 | 9.28 | 8.86 | 8.47 |
Accounts Payable | - | -15.70 | -61.10 | 6.50 | 24.70 | -19.41 | -6.93 | -6.62 | -6.32 | -6.04 |
Capital Expenditure | -19.40 | -25.50 | -28.50 | -22.40 | -32.60 | -23.06 | -22.03 | -21.04 | -20.09 | -19.19 |
UFCF | 141.73 | 65.14 | 252.92 | 52.41 | 57.07 | 21.04 | 44.65 | 42.65 | 40.73 | 38.90 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 19.21 | 37.22 | 32.46 | 28.30 | 24.68 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 141.86 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 9.53 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 39.68 |
Terminal Value | 526.98 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 334.30 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 476.16 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 108.20 |
Equity Value | 367.96 |
Shares Outstanding | 41.96 |
Equity Value Per Share | 8.77 |